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2070 Extreme Climate Change Scenarios for Water Supply Planning
DWR’s 2070 extreme climate change scenarios enable exploration of the vulnerability of and opportunities for water supply at the potential bounds of future climate change conditions. These scenarios were originally developed as part of the public benefit uncertainty analysis for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070). In 2018, DWR’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Program (SGMP) furnished these extreme scenarios for use by Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources). Specifically, downscaled global climate model (GCM) projections were provided for two future climate periods, including a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios to establish a range of projected conditions. **Since then, DWR collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the fidelity of these long-range planning datasets, resulting in this update of the 2070 extreme scenarios.** The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. The updated dataset improves downscaled climate change extreme conditions considered for water supply that features both statewide coverage of hydrologic variables and managed flows within California’s inter-regional water conveyance system. **A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here**: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed.
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Projections of Future Water Demand for the Western USA
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This data release contains projections of future water demand for the Western USA at the county level. This data is part of the project "Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures" (https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/531dc54de4b04cb293ee7806), and is the product of an analysis that determined where populations are changing, and how that change could affect residential and agricultural water withdraws from surface and ground water. Agricultural water use was derived from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL) of the National Agricultural Statistics Service, while residential water use was drawn from the USGS (Maupin et al. 2014). The scenarios follow four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2) and project changes for the periods ending in 2050 and 2100. Integrated Climate and Land Use (ICLUS) Data from Bierwagen et al. (2010) was used to project population change according to the SRES storylines. By using the same storylines, coherent population and climate scenarios can be projected that are the product of both changing populations and future climates. Bierwagen et al. (2010). National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002096107 Maupin et al. (2104). United States Geological Survey (USGS) Water-use Intensity Data. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/cir1405