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Population Projections
Transport for NSW provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for NSW. The latest version is Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24), released in January 2025. TZP24 replaces the previously published TZP22. The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions. The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables: Estimated Resident Population Structural Private Dwellings (Regional NSW only) Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex Population in Non-Private Dwellings The projections in this release, TZP24, are presented annually from 2021 to 2031 and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066, and are in TZ21 geography. Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, and the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021. Key Data Inputs used in TZP24: 2024 NSW Population Projections – NSW Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure 2021 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence) For a summary of the TZP24 projection method please refer to the TZP24 Factsheet. For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide. Additional land use information for workforce and employment as well as Travel Zone 2021 boundaries for NSW (TZ21) and concordance files are also available for download on the Open Data Hub. Visualisations of the population projections are available on the Transport for NSW Website under Data and research/Reference Information. Cautions The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions and population and employment projections. The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans. TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns. The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at early 2024). The projections are not government targets. Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results. As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only. More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub. Caution is advised when comparing TZP24 with the previous set of projections (TZP22) due to addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology. Further cautions and notes can be found in the TZP24 Technical Guide Important note: The Department of Planning, Housing & Infrastructure (DPHI) published the 2024 NSW Population Projections in November 2024. As per DPHI’s published projections, the following variables are excluded from the published TZP24 Population and Dwellings Projections: Structural Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in 43 councils across Greater Sydney, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Central Coast, Lower Hunter and Greater Newcastle Occupied Private Dwellings for Travel Zones in NSW. Furthermore, in TZP24, the Structural Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Implied Dwelling projections while the Occupied Private Dwellings variable aligns with the 2024 Households projections at SA2 level prepared by DPHI. The above variables are available upon request by contacting model.selection@transport.nsw.gov.au - Attention Place Forecasting.
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Transport for NSW - Census of Population and Housing
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This dataset contains projected population figures from Transport for NSW’s Travel Zone Projection 2016 (TZP2016) model (formally known as LU16*). The data includes: • Estimated Resident Population (ERP) (including 5-year age categories by sex); • Population in occupied private dwellings (POPD) • Population in non-private dwellings (PNPD); and • Occupied private dwellings (OPD) The TZP2016 projections reflect the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA) and are provided on a 5-yearly basis for the period 2011-2056.
2022 NSW Population Projection at 2041
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Export DataAccess APIThe NSW population projections are a scenario based on available evidence. They are not a target or a representation of Government intent. They represent possible demographic futures based on the best assessment of how the NSW population may change over time, including population size, age profile and residential location. The projections reflect current planning frameworks and strategies in place, and the potential demographic outcomes of contemporary decisions. They represent a basis from which to plan from.Population projections provide a picture of the population as it may develop in the future. They indicate an area’s likely population size, and its age and sex profile. Understanding these changes is essential to making informed planning decisions for the State’s future. These projections are used as a common framework across NSW Government. They inform planning policy decisions around infrastructure and service delivery such as the provision of hospital beds, school classrooms, roads and public transport. Future decisions, such as infrastructure investments and land use plans, will change future population patterns including growth and distribution. These projections do not change the current visions set out in Regional Plans or affect local plans and strategies such as Local Council’s Local Strategic Planning Statements and Local Housing Strategies.MetadataContent Title2022 NSW Population Projection at 2041Content TypeOtherDescriptionNSW population, household and implied dwelling projections are produced by the Department of Planning and Environment on behalf of the NSW Government. This is an Map Image Layer.Initial Publication Date01/04/2023Data Currency01/04/2023Data Update FrequencyYearlyContent SourceData provider filesFile TypeImagery LayerAttribution2022 NSW Population, Housing and Dwelling Projections (DPE, 2022)Data Theme, Classification or Relationship to other DatasetsPopulationAccuracySpatial Reference System (dataset)GDA94Spatial Reference System (web service)EPSG:4326WGS84 Equivalent ToGDA94Spatial ExtentContent LineageData ClassificationUnclassifiedData Access PolicyOpenData QualityTerms and ConditionsCreative CommonStandard and SpecificationData CustodianDepartment of Planning, Housing and InfrastructurePoint of ContactPopulation.Futures@planning.nsw.gov.auData AggregatorDepartment of Planning, Housing and InfrastructureData DistributorDepartment of Planning, Housing and InfrastructureAdditional Supporting InformationTRIM Number