This study updates the previous Wrights Creek Flood Study (Patterson Britton & Partners, 2007) and provides Council with a suitable platform for undertaking the next steps in the Floodplain Risk Management Process. The XP-RAFTS hydrologic model developed in the 2007 Flood Study has been adopted for this study. A TUFLOW hydraulic model of the catchment has been established using up to date survey of the ground levels and culvert and bridge structures. The TUFLOW hydraulic model has been used to reproduce the historical flood behaviour from events in 1995 and 2002 and to define flood behaviour for a range of design events. Actions undertaken as part of this flood study include: • collection of additional survey, • development of a TUFLOW hydraulic model, • definition of the design flood behaviour, • assessment of provisional hydraulic hazard, • assessment of hydraulic categorization, • assessment of the model sensitivity to parameter changes, • assessment of climate change impacts on model results, • assessment of sensitivity of model results to the new ARR 2016 design inputs, • community consultation.

Objective This Floodplain Management Study defines the nature and extent of the flood hazard in the three catchments. It also identifies and assesses strategies and measures aimed at reducing the impact of flooding on both existing and future development, and measures to prevent future development from making flooding worse. The results of this Floodplain Management Study are being used to prepare a Floodplain Management Plan (FPMP). The objective of the FPMP is to establish a cost-effective floodplain management strategy for the area and to recommend a programme for implementation of the Plan. The Study Brief is attached as Appendix A. What is in the Study The Floodplain Management Study and Plan will not totally eliminate flooding. Flooding is a natural phenomenon which cannot be fully controlled by human works. In fact, excessive artificial controls are likely to be very costly and to have adverse environmental effects. Therefore the Floodplain Management Study and Plan aim to provide a package of best management practices which give a balance between reducing flood hazard and flood damages, allowing appropriate development, and protecting and enhancing the environment of the floodplain. This Report has been divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction (page 1) Establishes the context and basis for the plan. Section 2: Background (page 5) Describes the study process, including previous studies, and the background technical information which is available. It includes a review of the previous Muddy Creek Flood Studies. Section 3: Existing Flood Behaviour (page 15) Summarises the available data and modelling results concerning flood behaviour. Section 4: Social and Economic Impacts of Flooding (page 23) Examines the potential flood damages and other social and economic effects of flooding for a range of flood events, including an extreme flood. Section 5: Choosing the Designated Flood (page 28) Discusses the issued to be considered by Council in choosing a designated flood for Rockdale, and recommends that the 1% AEP flood be adopted. Section 6: Available Floodplain Management Options (page 35) Describes in broad terms the range of flood mitigation and other management works and other measures available to address the existing, future and residual flooding problems in the study area. Sections 7, 8 and 9: Options for Management Areas (page 48) These three sections describe in detail, for the Muddy Creek, Spring St Drain and Scarborough Ponds catchments respectively, the feasible options and their likely benefits and costs. Section 10: Assessment of Management Options (page 86) Reviews the financial aspects and the justification for the proposed management measures, identifies priorities and possible sources of funding. These issues will be further addressed in the future Floodplain Management Plan. Section 11: References (page 90) Technical detail which supports the main report is provided in the Appendices, in Volume 2.

The objective of the study was to assess the impacts of climate change on the baseline 1% AEP flood condition within the Williamtown / Salt Ash Flood Study area. Central to this was the development of a new two-dimensional hydraulic model of the study area, in order that the impacts could be properly assessed. In completing the flood study review, the following activities were undertaken: • Review of relevant studies regarding flood conditions and climate change impacts within Port Stephens; • Site inspection to confirm the presence and configuration of key hydraulic structures; • Merging of the existing Williamtown / Salt Ash Flood Study and Williams River Flood Study modelled to produce a composite model capable of properly assessing the impact of climate change in the study area; • Updating of model topography with available LiDAR survey data; • Calibration of 1% AEP design event flood levels with the 4.84m AHD level from the Flood Frequency Analysis at Raymond Terrace; • Prediction of design flood conditions in the catchment using the developed model; and • Production of design flood mapping series. The climate change scenarios that were considered were combinations of 2050 and 2100 sea level rise conditions with baseline, +10% and +30% flood flows. A sea level rise of 0.4m by 2050, results in around a 0.2m increase to the 1% AEP flood level in Fullerton Cove. A sea level rise of 0.9m by 2100, results in around a 0.6m increase to the 1% AEP flood level in Fullerton Cove. For the 1% AEP event peak flood levels in Fullerton Cove increase by around 0.1m and 0.3m for the 10% and 30% flow increases respectively. The dominant flooding mechanism (in terms of peak design water levels) for the Williamtown / Salt Ash locality is mainstream Hunter River flooding. Under these conditions, Hunter River flooding results in Fullerton Cove filling and discharging into the Tilligerry Creek floodplain, under crossdrainage structures and through overtopping of Nelson Bay Road. The baseline flood level within the Tilligerry Creek floodplain is increased from 1.2m AHD to 2.6m AHD, under the worst case climate change scenario. The flood levels along Windeyers Creek are driven by flow conditions in the Hunter River. Hunter River flood water provides a backwater influence in Windeyers Creek, which fills the storage area to the east of the Pacific Highway. The total volume of water flowing from the Hunter River along Windeyers Creek determines the flood level reached in the storage area. A higher flood level in the Hunter River will result in a higher flood level in the storage area. At this location, the sea level rise scenarios have little impact on peak flood levels. There is only a small difference between flood levels for the baseline condition and the 2100 scenario. However, the increased flood flow scenarios do have a significant impact, with peak flood levels increasing by around 0.2m and 0.6m for the 10% and 30% flow increases respectively. The baseline flood level at this location is increased from 4.4m AHD to 5.2m AHD, under the worst case climate change scenario. The flood study review will form the basis for the subsequent floodplain risk management activities, being the next stage of the floodplain management process.

This Flood Study comprised the following principal stages: collection and assessment of available data; investigation of coastal processes to determine design ocean levels for tailwater boundary conditions for the hydraulic model and to determine ocean storm inflows into the lagoon; development and calibration of an hydrologic model to convert design storm rainfalls into design flood hydrographs; and development and calibration of an hydraulic model to determine design flood levels in the lagoon and on the floodplain. Available data comprises: Council records of lagoon openings (the most comprehensive available); Department of Land and Water Conservation (DLWC) Rainfall data at Kincumber Sewage Treatment Plant; and Bureau of Meteorology Daily Rainfall Records. The initial flood studies, outlined in this report, indicated significant sections of the Three Points Avenue area of MacMasters Beach would be flood liable. Ground survey of individual properties showed that the established model was not sufficiently refine to accurately represent the separate flow paths. An individual flood study was undertaken of the drain running parallel to Newell Road and Three Points Avenue. The study report appears as Addendum A to this document, while the results have been included on Figure 10.

INTRODUCTION The Tabourie Lake Flood Study has been prepared for Shoalhaven City Council (Council) to define the existing flood behaviour in the Tabourie Lake catchment and establish the basis for subsequent floodplain management activities. This project has been conducted under the State Assisted Floodplain Management Program and received State financial support.

An update of the modelling outputs for the Williams River Flood Study tying the model into the Williamtown Flood Study model.

The key objective of this Flood Study is to develop a suitable hydrologic/hydraulic model that can project flood and permanent inundation water levels in Lake Macquarie from rainfall, sea level rise and storm surge. These results will be used by Lake Macquarie City Council, in consultation with the community of Lake Macquarie City, to manage flood and permanent inundation risks to low lying land around the Lake Macquarie waterway. The key stages in the process are: Undertaken a comprehensive review of the 1998 Lake Macquarie Flood Study (Part 1 – Reference 1) and develop suitable hydrologic/hydraulic models to define flood behaviour over the full range of design events for existing catchment conditions, Use the hydrologic/hydraulic models to assess various climate change scenarios, including application of the NSW Government’s sea level rise benchmarks, Assess the potential increase in storm surge as a result of climate change and its impact on elevated ocean levels, Review the potential impact of climate change on the local wind/wave climate as this affects the extent of wave runup on the foreshore, Assess the hydraulic and hazard categories for existing and climate change conditions. This report details the results and findings of the above investigations. The key elements include: a summary of available historical flood related data, establishment of the hydrologic and hydraulic models, calibration of the hydrologic and hydraulic models, definition of the design flood behaviour for existing catchment conditions, sensitivity analysis of the design flood behaviour, assessment of the impacts of climate change on the still water and wave runup water levels re-definition of the flood extent and hydraulic and hazard categories mapping for existing and climate change conditions. A Flood Study is a technical document and not easily understood by the general public. A glossary of flood related terms is provided in Appendix A to assist. If more explanation of terms or a better understanding of the approach is required, type “NSW Government Floodplain Development Manual” into an internet search engine and you will be directed to the NSW Government web site which provides a copy of this manual and further explanation. Flood levels given in this report relate only to the water level with the lake itself. Design water levels in the creek systems entering the lake (Cockle Creek, Dora Creek etc.) will be higher than those shown for the lake.

The Flood Study had three main components:,

Flood study centres around the opening of Cockrone Lagoon to the ocean when the water level exceeds the let-out-level of RL2.476m AHD. The policy is aimed at minimising the flooding of properties adjacent to the lagoon. The investigation process used in this flood study was: collection of available data assessment of available data overview of lagoon behaviour assessment of coastal processes hydrologic modelling of the catchment to determine flood inflows, and hydraulic modelling of the lagoon to assess flood levels from flood inflows

The Gloucester and Avon Rivers Flood Study has been prepared for Gloucester Shire Council (Council) to define the existing flood behaviour in the catchment and establish the basis for subsequent floodplain management activities. This project has been implemented through the Gloucester Water Study Project. The primary objective of the Flood Study is to define the flood behaviour within the Gloucester and Avon Rivers catchment through the establishment of appropriate numerical models. The study has produced information on flood flows, velocities, levels and extents for a range of flood event magnitudes under existing catchment and floodplain conditions. Specifically, the study incorporates: Compilation and review of existing information pertinent to the study and acquisition of additional data including survey as required; Development and calibration of appropriate hydrologic and hydraulic models; Determination of design flood conditions for a range of design event including the 50% AEP, 20% AEP, 10% AEP, 5% AEP, 2% AEP, 1% AEP, 0.5% AEP, 0.2% AEP and PMF event; and Presentation of study methodology, results and findings in a comprehensive report incorporating appropriate flood mapping.