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Price or quantity effect? The impacts of the pandemic on Canadian trade
Largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s merchandise trade —and merchandise trade around the world—has been volatile in the last two years. Business closures to control the spread of the virus, shifts in spending patterns, volatile commodity prices, and lingering supply chain issues have all contributed to the disruptions in trade. Between February 2020 and May 2020, Canadian imports and exports both fell 29%. As pandemic restrictions gradually eased, monetary policy become more accommodating, fiscal supports materialized, and Canadians transitioned to working online, Canadian trade rebounded. As of October 2021, Canadian merchandise imports were 5.7% above 2019 average (pre-pandemic) levels, while Canadian merchandise exports were 13% above pre-pandemic levels. However, the fall and subsequent recovery of Canadian trade is more complicated than the simple narrative that things have returned to normal. In general, two components determine the value of Canadian trade: the quantity of goods traded and the price paid for those goods. Examining the quantity and price changes over the last two years provides more nuance on what actually changed during the pandemic, and contributes to a clearer narrative of the emerging trends in merchandise trade.
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Vulnerability of Canadian industries to disruptions in global supply chains
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The COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in international supply chains. While international supply chains proved to be very robust in the pandemic period of closed borders, restrictions on movement of people and goods, and closures of businesses, the pandemic proved the need for better tools, particularly for policy makers, to ascertain the health and resilience of international supply chains and the impact they have on their respective economies. This report attempts to provide one such tool with the creation of a set of indices to measure the vulnerability of Canadian industries to disruptions in both upstream and downstream international supply chains.
Products with limited international supply for Canada
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Following the outbreak of COVID-19, global supply chains are at the risk of major disruptions. This report provides a cursory analysis of products that have limited international supply for Canada. These products could be especially susceptible and may require extra attention from policy makers to ensure minimum operations and necessities. In 2019, Canada imported nearly 10 thousand unique products at the 10-digit level under the Harmonized System (HS) classification. However, due to Canada’s unique trading relationship with the United States and the integrated supply chains between the two countries, the U.S. consistently showed up as one of, if not the largest supplier for these products. Out of products with multiple suppliers, the U.S. was the top supplier for over 5000 products and had import shares of more than 90% in nearly a quarter of them. The other dominant supplier for Canada was China, which was not only the largest supplier for nearly 2000 products, but also had over 90% import share in 120 of them. Other major suppliers include Germany, Italy, and Mexico, where each country was the top supplier for approximately 200 products.
Manufacturers' sales, inventories, orders and inventory to sales ratios, by industry (dollars unless otherwise noted)
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,Monthly Canadian manufacturers' sales, new orders, unfilled orders, raw materials, goods or work in process, finished goods, total inventories, inventory to sales ratios and finished goods to sales ratios for durable and non-durable goods by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), in dollars unless otherwise noted. Unadjusted and seasonally adjusted values available from January 1992 to the current reference month.,
Canada’s export diversity by product
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This study focuses on the diversity of merchandise exports by product. Export diversity by product is important to hedge against price shocks and sector-specific drops in demand. Product diversity is also important for ensuring that a positive shock in demand or price for a given product does not appreciate the currency to the point it reduces the competitiveness of other industries.
Canada’s State of Trade
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2019: This report provides a comprehensive summary of the main developments in Canada’s commercial activities during the previous year. It describes the events that took place in the global economy and trade in 2018, the main developments in Canada’s economy and those of its most important partner economies and regions. It reports the developments in Canada’s trade in goods and services, as well as flows and stocks of foreign direct investment and Canadian direct investment abroad. 2020: This report gives Canadians a snapshot of our economic activities in 2019 while recognizing the unprecedented global uncertainty of 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This report highlights how Canadian innovation and resilience has allowed our businesses to continue to compete in the global marketplace and our government’s commitment to supporting trade through turbulent times. 2021: This report captures the story of the incredible sacrifices made and resilience demonstrated by Canadians and businesses through an unparalleled chapter in our country's history, and charts a path forward as we step into our recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. 2022 : This report highlights Canada's robust trade and investment recovery, which has displayed remarkable resilience during another challenging year. This year's report focuses on free trade agreements, which will continue to be vital tools for Canadian businesses as they enter this new phase of the post-pandemic recovery.