The Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS) provides a 48 hour ocean and ice forecast over different domains (East, West, Salish Sea) four times a day at 1/36° resolution. A pseudo-analysis component is forced at the ocean boundaries by the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) forecasts and spectrally nudged to the RIOPS solution in the deep ocean. Fields from the pseudo-analysis are used to initialize the 00Z forecast, whilst the 06, 12 and 18Z forecasts use a restart files saved at hour 6 from the previous forecast. The atmospheric fluxes for both the pseudo-analysis and forecast components are provided by the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) blended both spatially and temporally with either the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) (for CIOPS-East) or an uncoupled component of the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) at 10km horizontal resolution (for CIOPS-West) for areas not covered by the HRDPS.

The Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS) provides a 48 hour ocean and ice forecast over different domains (East, West, Salish Sea) four times a day at 1/36° resolution. A pseudo-analysis component is forced at the ocean boundaries by the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) forecasts and spectrally nudged to the RIOPS solution in the deep ocean. Fields from the pseudo-analysis are used to initialize the 00Z forecast, whilst the 06, 12 and 18Z forecasts use a restart files saved at hour 6 from the previous forecast. The atmospheric fluxes for both the pseudo-analysis and forecast components are provided by the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) blended both spatially and temporally with either the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) (for CIOPS-East) or an uncoupled component of the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) at 10km horizontal resolution (for CIOPS-West) for areas not covered by the HRDPS.

The Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) produces global sea ice and ocean analyses and 10 day forecasts daily. This product contains time-mean sea ice and ocean forecast fields interpolated to two grids. One of the grids is a 0.2° resolution regular latitude-longitude grid covering the global ocean (north of 80° S). The other grid is in north-polar stereographic projection with a 5-km spacing at the standard parallel 60° N and covers the Arctic Ocean and the neighbouring sub-polar seas. Data is available for 50 depths. The data files are in netCDF format and comply with the Climate and Forecast Conventions.

The Regional Ice-Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) is based on the NEMO-CICE ice-ocean model and produces regional sea ice and ocean analyses and 84 hours forecasts daily based at [00, 06, 12, 18] UTC on a subset of the 1/12° resolution global tri-polar grid (ORCA12). RIOPS assimilates data (gridded CCMEP analysis SST product, SLA from satellite altimetry, in situ observations) using a multivariate reduced order Kalman filter and includes a 3DVar ice concentration analysis (assimilating satellite remote sensing and Canadian Ice Service ice charts). Atmospheric fluxes for 84 hours forecasts are calculated using fields from a blending of the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) and the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS).

WCPS-coupled forecast is the component in the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS) that provides the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts at a 1km resolution (0.008 x 0.008 degree) over the Great Lakes, St. Lawrence River and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. It launches 4 times a day at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC and produces 84 hours forecast, based on the atmospheric model GEM, coupled with the ocean-ice model NEMO-CICE. The products from WCPS-coupled forecasts are (1) GEM : surface air temperatures, surface wind velocities, and surface runoff (2) NEMO-CICE : variety of lake/ocean sea ice variables, for example, lake levels and temperatures. They are designed to help forecasters issuing bulletins and warnings in ice-infestested waters for navigation, water level alert, emergency response, Search and Rescue, and CIS Sea Ice forecast.

The Regional Ensemble Wave Prediction System (REWPS) uses the third generation spectral wave model WaveWatch III® (WW3) to arrive at probabilistic predictions of wave elements from the current day out to 3 days into the future. The probabilistic predictions are based on 20 ensemble members and a control member that are forced by the 10 meters winds from the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS). An ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to dampen or suppress wave growth in areas covered respectively with 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice. WW3 (WAVEWATCH III® Development Group, WW3DG 2019) is a third generation spectral wave prediction model that solves the evolution of the energy balance equation for the 2-D wave energy spectrum without any prior assumptions on the shape of the spectrum. The WW3 model has been implemented by a growing number of national operational forecasting centres over the last several years. The REWPS data are available on the Great Lakes domain.

The Global Deterministic storm Surge Prediction System (GDSPS) produces water level forecasts using a modified version of the NEMO ocean model (Wang et al. 2021, 2022, 2023). It provides 240 hours forecasts twice per day on a 1/12° resolution grid (3-9 km). The model is forced by the 10 meters winds, sea level pressure, ice concentration, ice velocity and surface currents from the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS). The three dimensionnal ocean temperature and salinity fields of the model are nudged to values provided by the Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS) and the GDPS. During the post-processing phase, storm surge elevation (ETAS) is derived from total water level (SSH) by harmonic analysis using t_tide (Foreman et al. 2009).

The Global Ensemble Wave Prediction System (GEWPS) uses the third generation spectral wave model WaveWatch III® (WW3) to arrive at probabilistic predictions of wave elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future. The probabilistic predictions are based on 20 ensemble members and a control member that are forced by the 10 meters winds from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). The GEPS forecast is a coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model, its sea ice forecast is used by the GEWPS to dampen or suppress wave growth in areas covered respectively with 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice. WW3 (WAVEWATCH III® Development Group, WW3DG 2019) is a third generation spectral wave prediction model that solves the evolution of the energy balance equation for the 2-D wave energy spectrum without any prior assumptions on the shape of the spectrum. The WW3 model has been implemented by a growing number of national operational forecasting centres over the last several years.

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in sea ice thickness, based on an ensemble of twenty-six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1900-2100. Projected change in sea ice thickness is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensemble of sea ice thickness change are available for the historical time period, 1900-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in sea ice thickness (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.