SGMA Climate Change Resources
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This dataset includes processed climate change datasets related to climatology, hydrology, and water operations. The climatological data provided are change factors for precipitation and reference evapotranspiration gridded over the entire State. The hydrological data provided are projected stream inflows for major streams in the Central Valley, and streamflow change factors for areas outside of the Central Valley and smaller ungaged watersheds within the Central Valley. The water operations data provided are Central Valley reservoir outflows, diversions, and State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) water deliveries and select streamflow data. Most of the Central Valley inflows and all of the water operations data were simulated using the CalSim II model and produced for all projections. These data were originally developed for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP). The WSIP data used as the basis for these climate change resources along with the technical reference document are located here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070. Additional processing steps were performed to improve user experience, ease of use for GSP development, and for Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) implementation. Furthermore, the data, tools, and guidance may be useful for purposes other than sustainable groundwater management under SGMA. Data are provided for projected climate conditions centered around 2030 and 2070. The climate projections are provided for these two future climate periods, and include one scenario for 2030 and three scenarios for 2070: a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios (i.e., one drier with extreme warming and one wetter with moderate warming). The climate scenario development process represents a climate period analysis where historical interannual variability from January 1915 through December 2011 is preserved while the magnitude of events may be increased or decreased based on projected changes in precipitation and air temperature from general circulation models. ## 2070 Extreme Scenarios Update, September 2020 DWR has collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the quality of the 2070 extreme scenarios. The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method known as "quantile delta mapping" to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed. *Note: the original version of the 2070 extreme scenarios can be accessed in the archive posted here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources/resource/51b6ee27-4f78-4226-8429-86c3a85046f4*
WEAP Future Scenarios Model for Water Plan Update 2023
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California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This information is published in the California Water Plan (Water Plan), which is updated every five years. Water Plan Updates 2005, 2009, 2013, 2018 and 2023 have progressively developed a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for assessing the impacts of climate change on California water resources and infrastructure, as well as the adaptation strategies needed and available to improve regional water resilience. Update 2023 brought significant improvements to input data and process in the model as described in the model documentation provided in the resources. The current WEAP model is called the WEAP-CVPA model as it covers the Central Valley of California at the planning area scale. The model was run on WEAP version 2021.0.2.2 but is compatible with newer versions of WEAP based on limited testing. Included in this dataset is: * The model itself with input files provided as a zip file * A link to SEI’s website where the software to run and view the model can be downloaded * The documentation for the model that was released as part of the California Water Plan Update 2023 * 4 CSVs with the post processed data from the study that were used to create the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer, separated by summary vs detailed response surface as well as by planning area metrics vs points of interest metrics * A link to the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer where the post processed results and response surfaces available at the planning area level * The raw exports from the model of the level 2070 that were post processed to create the data that informed the Water Plan Update 2023 * Spatial Boundaries for Water Plan Planning Areas which were used as the basis for spatial areas in the WEAP model