This release covers the entire study region (Midwest) and includes data used for retrospective population modeling effort as well as climate projection data for each county on the summer breeding grounds for three future time periods (2025-2045, 2060-2080, 2080-2100) under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) of key thermal climate profiles (based on a range of typical thermal thresholds) relevant to butterfly (and other insect growth) including growing degree days and precipitation (Apr through Aug). Values were generated from an ensemble of GCMs.

The USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center developed a Monarch Relevant Land Cover data set covering the area of Mexico. We used the 2010 land cover data set produced by the tri-national North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) and supported by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) that depicts year 2010 land cover across North America at 30-meter spatial resolution, and incorporated additional spatially-explicit information to develop this land cover map. Additional sources of information included 2004 railroad data provided by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and the CEC, 2011 roads data provided by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, 2017 protected areas data provided by the CEC, and 2006 Mexico municipalities data provided by Sistemas de Información Geográfica.

The USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center developed a Monarch Relevant Land Cover data set covering the area of Mexico. We used the 2010 land cover data set produced by the tri-national North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) and supported by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) that depicts year 2010 land cover across North America at 30-meter spatial resolution, and incorporated additional spatially-explicit information to develop this land cover map. Additional sources of information included 2004 railroad data provided by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and the CEC, 2011 roads data provided by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, 2017 protected areas data provided by the CEC, and 2006 Mexico municipalities data provided by Sistemas de Información Geográfica.

This data release includes measures of vertically-integrated reflectivity (VIR) and estimates of linear trends in VIR as observed by the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) stations along the Gulf of Mexico during spring and autumn migrations from 2018-2020. The VIR is a measure of bird density and can be used to map the spatial distribution of birds as they leave stopover habitat and resume nocturnal migration. This data release also includes seasonal and multi-year summary statistics.

This data release includes measures of vertically-integrated reflectivity (VIR) and estimates of linear trends in VIR as observed by the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) stations along the Gulf of Mexico during spring and autumn migrations from 2018-2020. The VIR is a measure of bird density and can be used to map the spatial distribution of birds as they leave stopover habitat and resume nocturnal migration. This data release also includes seasonal and multi-year summary statistics.

The USGS Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center developed a Monarch Butterfly Relevant Land Cover data set covering the conterminous United States of America. This data set was used primarily to assist in forecasting the number of milkweed stems on the landscape. Milkweed are required by monarch butterflies for reproduction and one possible cause for the decline in monarch butterfly numbers is thought to be the loss of milkweed. We used the Cropland Data Layer 2015 as well as additional spatially explicit information to develop the monarch relevant land cover data set. Additional sources of information included 2014 United States Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program enrollment locations; railroad, power line, and road rights of way; marginal versus productive farmland as determined by the 2012 United States Department of Agriculture National Commodity Cropland Productivity Index; and a characterization of urban versus outside urban environs. Due to the inherent sensitivity of the Conservation Reserve Program and Transmission line data sets, we created this non-sensitive version of the Monarch Butterfly Relevant Land Cover data set for distribution with those two data sets not used in the development.

Data are population size estimates for monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico as well as 76 potential stressors and 3 correlates. These stressors include disease, pesticide, herbicide, temperature, precipitation, and habitat loss measured for Mexican overwintering area and Southern, North Central, and Northeastern breeding areas.

Data are population size estimates for monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico as well as 76 potential stressors and 3 correlates. These stressors include disease, pesticide, herbicide, temperature, precipitation, and habitat loss measured for Mexican overwintering area and Southern, North Central, and Northeastern breeding areas.

Stabilizing the eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) is expected to require substantial habitat restoration on agricultural land in the core breeding area of the Upper Midwestern U.S. Previous research has considered the potential to utilize marginal land for this purpose because of its low productivity, erodible soils, and high nutrient input requirements. This strategy has strong potential for restoring milkweed (Asclepias spp.), but may be limited in terms of its ability to generate additional biophysical and socioeconomic benefits for local communities. Here we explore the possibility of restoring milkweed via the creation of continuous riparian buffer strips around perennial and intermittent streams throughout the region. We use a GIS-based analysis to consider the potential of several different buffer-width scenarios to meet milkweed restoration targets. We further estimate the ability of these habitat areas to provide additional functionality in the form of crop pollination and water quality regulation across the entire region. Finally, we estimate the conservative economic value of these ecosystem services and compare it with the lost value of crops associated with each scenario. Results suggest that riparian buffers could be used to meet 10-43% of the total milkweed restoration target of 1.3 billion new stems with moderate management. The value of water quality and pollination benefits provided by buffers is estimated to exceed costs only for our smallest buffer-width scenario, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1:2.05. Larger buffer widths provide more milkweed, but costs to farmers exceed the benefits we were able to quantify. The large-scale restoration of multifunctional riparian corridors thus has the potential to add milkweed stems while also providing a variety of other valuable benefits. This suggests the potential to leverage monarch habitat restoration efforts for the benefit of a wider variety of species and a broader coalition of beneficiaries.

Stabilizing the eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) is expected to require substantial habitat restoration on agricultural land in the core breeding area of the Upper Midwestern U.S. Previous research has considered the potential to utilize marginal land for this purpose because of its low productivity, erodible soils, and high nutrient input requirements. This strategy has strong potential for restoring milkweed (Asclepias spp.), but may be limited in terms of its ability to generate additional biophysical and socioeconomic benefits for local communities. Here we explore the possibility of restoring milkweed via the creation of continuous riparian buffer strips around perennial and intermittent streams throughout the region. We use a GIS-based analysis to consider the potential of several different buffer-width scenarios to meet milkweed restoration targets. We further estimate the ability of these habitat areas to provide additional functionality in the form of crop pollination and water quality regulation across the entire region. Finally, we estimate the conservative economic value of these ecosystem services and compare it with the lost value of crops associated with each scenario. Results suggest that riparian buffers could be used to meet 10-43% of the total milkweed restoration target of 1.3 billion new stems with moderate management. The value of water quality and pollination benefits provided by buffers is estimated to exceed costs only for our smallest buffer-width scenario, with a cost-benefit ratio of 1:2.05. Larger buffer widths provide more milkweed, but costs to farmers exceed the benefits we were able to quantify. The large-scale restoration of multifunctional riparian corridors thus has the potential to add milkweed stems while also providing a variety of other valuable benefits. This suggests the potential to leverage monarch habitat restoration efforts for the benefit of a wider variety of species and a broader coalition of beneficiaries.