This data release contains the models and their inputs and outputs needed to reproduce the findings for the publication by Soong and Over (2022), "Effect of Uncertainty of Discharge Data on Uncertainty of Discharge Simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, Northeastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana." These data were developed in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District, for the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting program. Data are provided in four zip files and one MS Word file. The MS Word file 4.ReadMe.HSPF_Recalibrations_with_17TimeSeriesPairs.docx documents the recalibration of the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model with discharge time series pairs that characterize the uncertainty of the published daily discharge at the two U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, analyzed in 2.PubQUncertaintyEst.zip. It also points to data included in four zip files. The zip files provide the inputs, scripts and other executables, and sample outputs from the model archive for the publication. In addition, the zip files document the executables (1.Executables.zip) and the following modeling tasks: 2.PubQUncertaintyEst.zip - Estimation of the uncertainty of published daily discharge at two USGS streamgages; 3.BaseModel-ParameterUncertainty.zip - Estimation of the parameters of the base HSPF model; and 5.HSPFsimulations.zip - Simulations of discharge with HSPF for the nine study watersheds.

An expanding effort exists to estimate discharge of rivers utilizing remote sensing measurements. The goal of this investigation is to evaluate the uncertainty associated with estimating streamflow using remote sensing practices. This data release contains in-situ observations of river width, depth, velocity, and discharge from 30 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaged study reaches (USGSGagedTestSiteMeasurements.csv) obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) Surface Water Field Measurements to assess the uncertainty associated with estimating discharge using a modified Manning's equation model. The R code (CalibrationObservationsExp_sampleRandomDF.R) was used to randomly sample observations for user defined sample sizes to test uncertainty related to calibration with limited observations. The ExperimentInputFiles zip file contains a subset of the USGS gaged observation dataset that served as input values to the attached R code found in the R_Script zip file. Geomorphic characteristics (parameters.csv) of the study reaches and associated drainage basins were used to investigate relations between site conditions and accuracy of discharge estimates obtained using the modified Manning's equation. Surface water height and slope data from the Tanana River near Fairbanks, Alaska (TananaRiver_Fairbanks_DynamicSurfaceWaterSlope.csv) were used to assess the influence of static and dynamic slope values on estimating discharge.

An expanding effort exists to estimate discharge of rivers utilizing remote sensing measurements. The goal of this investigation is to evaluate the uncertainty associated with estimating streamflow using remote sensing practices. This data release contains in-situ observations of river width, depth, velocity, and discharge from 30 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaged study reaches (USGSGagedTestSiteMeasurements.csv) obtained from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) Surface Water Field Measurements to assess the uncertainty associated with estimating discharge using a modified Manning's equation model. The R code (CalibrationObservationsExp_sampleRandomDF.R) was used to randomly sample observations for user defined sample sizes to test uncertainty related to calibration with limited observations. The ExperimentInputFiles zip file contains a subset of the USGS gaged observation dataset that served as input values to the attached R code found in the R_Script zip file. Geomorphic characteristics (parameters.csv) of the study reaches and associated drainage basins were used to investigate relations between site conditions and accuracy of discharge estimates obtained using the modified Manning's equation. Surface water height and slope data from the Tanana River near Fairbanks, Alaska (TananaRiver_Fairbanks_DynamicSurfaceWaterSlope.csv) were used to assess the influence of static and dynamic slope values on estimating discharge.

This dataset consists of time series and evaluation metrics (in comma-separated value format [.csv]) which are described in the Bock and others (2018) Advances in Water Resources research article “Quantifying uncertainty in simulated streamflow and runoff from a continental-scale monthly water balance model.” In this paper, uncertainty was quantified in simulated monthly runoff produced by a monthly water balance model for gaged and ungaged locations across the conterminous United States. The compressed folder UI_byGage.zip contains two files. The file UI_byGage.csv contains the monthly time-step uncertainty intervals and measured and simulated time series of streamflow developed at 1,575 streamgages across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The period of record varies by streamgage. The file Met_byGage.csv contains three metrics (coverage ratio, average width index, and interval skill score), which are evaluations of the uncertainty interval at each of the streamgages. The compressed folder RUN_byHRU.zip contains simulated runoff for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. Files are organized by ninteen hydrologic regions (NHDPlus, 2010) and available at a monthly time-step from January 1949 through December 2010. The compressed folder UI_byHRU.zip contains uncertainty intervals (rXX_High.csv and rXX_Low.csv) bounding the simulated runoff at the HRUs. The files have naming conventions and formats identical to the files in the RUN_byHRU.zip folder. The file AWI_byHRU.csv is the average width index calculated for each HRU. See Bock and others (2018) for a full description of the data and metrics.

This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations of the southeastern U.S. using the Monthly Water Balance Model, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and statistically-based methods. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions for an area of approximately 1.16 million square miles. These model input and output data are intended to accompany a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (LaFontaine and others, 2019); they include four types of data: 1) model input parameters, 2) model output statistics, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units and stream segments, and 4) statistically-based streamflow estimates for headwater watersheds. LaFontaine, J.H., Hart, R.M., Hay, L.E., Farmer, W.H., Bock, A.R., Viger, R.J., Markstrom, S.L., Regan, R.S., and Driscoll, J.M., 2019, Simulation of Water Availability in the Southeastern United States for Historical and Potential Future Climate and Land-Cover Conditions: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, 2019-5039, 83 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195039.

A previously developed three-dimensional groundwater-flow model that used the MODFLOW-NWT code was updated to simulate the effects of various proposed drainage modifications aimed at reducing discharge to a sanitary sewer system near Long Lake in Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Gary, Indiana. The original steady-state model documented in the USGS report (https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5003/) and data release (https://doi.org/10.5066/F7D21VS2) was calibrated to a low groundwater level/dry weather condition of October 2002 and a high groundwater level/wet weather condition of March 2011. For this study the 2002 and 2011 simulations were updated with elevation data collected from a 2017 survey of primary surface-water features that affect groundwater levels to create dry- or wet-weather “base” simulations (figs. 1 and 2). Eight scenario models were created by modifying the updated 2002 and 2011 base simulations. The scenarios examined the effects of potential modifications to the hydrologic system: (scenario 1a) diverting water from US-12 weir (site CS-1) to County Line Road ditch through underground pipes [figs. 3-6], (scenario 1b) diverting water from US-12 ditch to Spencer ditch, then trenching Spencer ditch to the County Line Road ditch to drain to the Little Calumet River [figs. 7 and 8], (scenario 2) Extending and altering US-12 ditch to flow east toward County Line Road ditch and drain to the Little Calumet River [figs. 9 and 10], and (scenario 3) installing culverts under US-12 and adjacent railroad lines to connect US-12 ditch with West Long Lake [figs. 11-14]. This data release contains all files and associated information needed to run these additional simulations. Changes in water-table position for each scenario simulation are categorized in figures in this data release as (1) within 7 feet of the land surface, (2) within 3 feet of the land surface, or (3) above land surface and are expressed relative to the water-table position simulated in the updated dry- or wet-weather base simulations. The descriptions focus primarily on changes to the distribution of groundwater towards the center of the model domain. Groundwater distributions towards the western edge (west of Grand Blvd.), southwest (south of US-20), and eastern edge (towards Ogden Dunes) of model domain show relatively small variations in the scenario simulations and are outside of the primary area of interest. The scenario of rerouting water from entry into the Gary sanitary sewer system at the weir at site CS-1 to County Line Road ditch through underground pipes (scenario 1a; figs. 3-6) used the MODFLOW Drain Return Package to transmit water from the US-12 ditch to a drain return cell at the intersection of County Line Road ditch and 5th Avenue. This simulated hydrologic modification produced an expanded area of shallow groundwater within 7 feet of the land surface in the areas surrounding the drain return cell location. A small groundwater mound developed in the dry-weather underground pipes simulation at the intersection of County Line Road and 5th Avenue, with the water table within 3 feet of the land surface. In the dry-weather underground pipes simulation (figs. 3 and 4), the portions of the area between Union Street and County Line Road ditch were inundated. Water-table position changes north of US-12 or west of Spencer Street were minimal. In the wet-weather underground pipes simulation (figs. 5 and 6), water ponded at the intersection of County Line Road and East 5th Avenue. Both dry- and wet-weather underground pipes simulations exhibited similar patterns of water-table changes, but differences between water-table positions in the underground pipes and updated wet-weather base simulations were minimal in areas away from the drain return cell. The scenario of diverting water from US-12 ditch to Spencer ditch then trenching to the County Line Road ditch (scenario 1b; figs. 7 and 8) required creation of new drain cells to connect the southern

This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations for the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) version 5.1.0 (https://www.usgs.gov/software/precipitation-runoff-modeling-system-prms) and the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM, Regan and others, 2018). These simulations were developed to provide estimates of the water budget and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions using atmospheric forcing data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Specific file types include: 1) input forcings of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, and daily precipitation derived from general circulation models (GCM, table1_GCMs_used.csv), 2) output files of simulated streamflow for each stream segment in the model, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units and stream segments, and 4) a suite of streamflow statistics for each modeled segment. This data release complements data release (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9CVHLMB) which contains historical simulations based on historically observed atmospheric forcings rather than GCM-derived forcings. The same parameter files and model configuration files were used for all model runs and are available in that data release.

This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations for the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) version 5.1.0 (https://www.usgs.gov/software/precipitation-runoff-modeling-system-prms) and the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM, Regan and others, 2018). These simulations were developed to provide estimates of the water budget and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions using atmospheric forcing data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Specific file types include: 1) input forcings of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, and daily precipitation derived from general circulation models (GCM, table1_GCMs_used.csv), 2) output files of simulated streamflow for each stream segment in the model, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units and stream segments, and 4) a suite of streamflow statistics for each modeled segment. This data release complements data release (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9CVHLMB) which contains historical simulations based on historically observed atmospheric forcings rather than GCM-derived forcings. The same parameter files and model configuration files were used for all model runs and are available in that data release.

The continental United States (CONUS) was modeled to produce simulations of historical and potential future streamflow using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) application of the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM; Regan and others, 2018). This child page specifically contains a suite of 52 streamflow metrics. These metrics were computed using daily outputs of runoff from HRUs (PRMS variable hru_outflow) and streamflow from the model stream segments (PRMS variable seg_outflow) for all historical and future simulations (table1_GCMs_used.csv) with both static and dynamic land cover parameters. These streamflow statistics describe the duration, frequency, magnitude, rate of change, and timing of streamflow computed for historical and future simulation periods (streamflow_statistics_description_table.csv).

The continental United States (CONUS) was modeled to produce simulations of historical and potential future streamflow using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) application of the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM; Regan and others, 2018). This child page specifically contains a suite of 52 streamflow metrics. These metrics were computed using daily outputs of runoff from HRUs (PRMS variable hru_outflow) and streamflow from the model stream segments (PRMS variable seg_outflow) for all historical and future simulations (table1_GCMs_used.csv) with both static and dynamic land cover parameters. These streamflow statistics describe the duration, frequency, magnitude, rate of change, and timing of streamflow computed for historical and future simulation periods (streamflow_statistics_description_table.csv).