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Bioenergetics Models of Four Freshwater Fish Species in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100
This data release provides model predicted estimates of daily consumption and growth based on established bioenergetics models for multiple lakes and reservoirs throughout the midwest region.. Specifically, the data includes two intermediary variables (processed lake temperature prediction feather files and bioenergetic metrics CSV), model code in R script used to produce the outputs, and bioenergetics model prediction feather files for a set of fish bioenergetics models under current and future temperature conditions at 337 large lakes.
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Bioenergetics Models of Four Freshwater Fish Species in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100
공공데이터포털
This data release provides model predicted estimates of daily consumption and growth based on established bioenergetics models for multiple lakes and reservoirs throughout the midwest region.. Specifically, the data includes two intermediary variables (processed lake temperature prediction feather files and bioenergetic metrics CSV), model code in R script used to produce the outputs, and bioenergetics model prediction feather files for a set of fish bioenergetics models under current and future temperature conditions at 337 large lakes.
NLDAS model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
NLDAS model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
Lake Biogeochemical Model Output for One Retrospective and 12 Future Climate Runs in Northern Wisconsin & Michigan, USA
공공데이터포털
This dataset contains modeled daily lake area, volume, constituent mass, and biogeochemical rates for 3,692 lakes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) for one retrospective model run (1986-2010) and 12 model runs under future climate scenarios. This dataset was created using published tools developed to simulate detailed hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes for thousands of lakes and reservoirs over large spatiotemporal scales. The lake hydrology model utilized a computationally-efficient integrated surface water and groundwater modeling framework that informed a lake water budget model incorporating daily hydrologic inputs and exports from individual lakes within the modeling domain. The lake biogeochemical model was informed by the hydrologic information and was built upon a simple lake energy budget, constituent loading, and lake biogeochemical model to track carbon storage and processing for all lakes within the NHLD modeling domain. Our one retrospective model run was driven by historic meteorological data and the projected model runs were driven by projected future climate scenario periods that are representative through the year 2100. For more details on the historic and projected driver data and model set up, please see Zwart et al. (year and DOI to be entered once MS is published).
Lake Biogeochemical Model Output for One Retrospective and 12 Future Climate Runs in Northern Wisconsin & Michigan, USA
공공데이터포털
This dataset contains modeled daily lake area, volume, constituent mass, and biogeochemical rates for 3,692 lakes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) for one retrospective model run (1986-2010) and 12 model runs under future climate scenarios. This dataset was created using published tools developed to simulate detailed hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes for thousands of lakes and reservoirs over large spatiotemporal scales. The lake hydrology model utilized a computationally-efficient integrated surface water and groundwater modeling framework that informed a lake water budget model incorporating daily hydrologic inputs and exports from individual lakes within the modeling domain. The lake biogeochemical model was informed by the hydrologic information and was built upon a simple lake energy budget, constituent loading, and lake biogeochemical model to track carbon storage and processing for all lakes within the NHLD modeling domain. Our one retrospective model run was driven by historic meteorological data and the projected model runs were driven by projected future climate scenario periods that are representative through the year 2100. For more details on the historic and projected driver data and model set up, please see Zwart et al. (year and DOI to be entered once MS is published).
CM2.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
CM2.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes
ECHAM5.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
공공데이터포털
Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 30-70% of lakes, and an increase to high largemouth bass relative abundance in 17-55% of additional lakes. The percentage of lakes with abundant largemouth bass and failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 59% in contemporary conditions to 86% of lakes by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the number of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 8.5% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 38 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify nearly 100 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBDY_WBIC, days_12_28, height_12_28, vol_12_28, days_10.6_11.2, height_10.6_11.2, vol_10.6_11.2, days_18.2_28.2, height_18.2_28.2, vol_18.2_28.2, days_18_22, height_18_22, vol_18_22, days_19.3_23.3, height_19.3_23.3, vol_19.3_23.3, days_19_23, height_19_23, vol_19_23, days_20.6_23.2, height_20.6_23.2, vol_20.6_23.2, days_20_30, height_20_30, vol_20_30, days_21_100, days_22_23, height_22_23, vol_22_23, days_23_31, height_23_31, vol_23_31, days_25_29, height_25_29, vol_25_29, days_26.2_32, height_26.2_32, vol_26.2_32, days_26_28, height_26_28, vol_26_28, days_26_30, height_26_30, vol_26_30, days_28_29, height_28_29, vol_28_29, days_28_32, height_28_32, vol_28_32, days_29_100, height_29_100, vol_29_100, days_30_31, height_30_31, vol_30_31, durStrat, winter_dur_0-4, spring_days_in_10.5_15.5, mean_surf_jul, mean_surf_JAS, peak_temp, post_ice_warm_rate, SthermoD_mean, dateOver21, dateOver18, , dateOver8.9, SmetaTopD_mean, SmetaBotD_mean, coef_var_30_60, coef_var_0_30, mean_epi_hypo_ratio, mean_epi_vol, mean_hyp_vol, simulation_length_days, volume_mean_m_3, volume_sum_m_3_day, GDD_wtr_10c, GDD_wtr_5c, optic_hab_8_64, thermal_hab_11_25, optic_thermal_hab, optic_hab_8_64_surf, thermal_hab_11_25_surf, optic_thermal_hab_surf calculated for 2148 lakes