Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. These data represent an updated population trend analysis and Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for state and federal land and wildlife managers to use best available science to help guide current management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations range-wide. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022) and includes population lek count data from 1960-2023. Bayesian state-space models estimated 2.8 percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations across their geographical range, which varied among subpopulations at the largest scale of analysis, termed climate clusters (2.1-3.1). Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Mean extirpation probabilities calculated across all neighborhood clusters at approximately 18, 37, and 55 years in the future were 0.15 (SD of 0.25), 0.22 (SD of 0.27), and 0.26 (SD of 0.29), respectively. We also present updated results to the TAWS which models rates of change in abundance from spatially structured populations and identifies when local declines fall out of synchrony with trends at larger spatial scales. The TAWS framework provides signals that alert managers to the categorical significance of observed declines while avoiding signals where declines result from drivers operating at larger spatial scales (for example, periodic reductions in primary productivity owing to drought). Definitions: Watch: Assigned to populations that exhibit evidence of population decline below those of their respective climate cluster (slow signal) over 2 consecutive years. Warning: Assigned to populations that experienced slow signals in 3 out of 4 consecutive years OR a relatively strong magnitude (fast signal) of evidence for 2 out of 3 years. Watches may identify the need for intensive monitoring whereas warnings may identify the need for management intervention aimed at stabilizing populations. References: Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., O’Donnell, M.S., Aldridge, C.L., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Ricca, M.A., Wann, G.T., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2021, Range-wide greater sage-grouse hierarchical monitoring framework-Implications for defining population boundaries, trend estimation, and a targeted annual warning system: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1154, 243 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201154. Coates, P.S., Prochazka, B.G., Aldridge, C.L., O’Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2022, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)-Updated 1960-2021: U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1165, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1165

We produced 13 hierarchically nested cluster levels that reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework for greater sage-grouse across the western United States. Polygons (clusters) within each cluster level group a population of sage-grouse leks (sage-grouse breeding grounds) and each level increasingly groups lek clusters from previous levels. We developed the hierarchical clustering approach by identifying biologically relevant population units aimed to use a statistical and repeatable approach and include biologically relevant landscape and habitat characteristics. We desired a framework that was spatially hierarchical, discretized the landscape while capturing connectivity (habitat and movements), and supported management questions at different spatial scales. The spatial variability in the amount and quality of habitat resources can affect local population success and result in different population growth rates among smaller clusters. Equally so, the spatial structure and ecological organization driving scale-dependent systems in a fragmented landscape affects dispersal behavior, suggesting inclusion in population monitoring frameworks. Studies that compare conditions among spatially explicit hierarchical clusters may elucidate the cause of differing growth rates at local scales affected by changes in habitat quality compared to larger scaled processes affecting growth rates, such as regional climate/vegetation communities. Therefore, the use of multiple scales (hierarchical cluster levels) that group demographic data can provide information driving population changes at different spatial scales, thereby providing a tool for population monitoring and adaptive management.

We produced 13 hierarchically nested cluster levels that reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework for greater sage-grouse across the western United States. Polygons (clusters) within each cluster level group a population of sage-grouse leks (sage-grouse breeding grounds) and each level increasingly groups lek clusters from previous levels. We developed the hierarchical clustering approach by identifying biologically relevant population units aimed to use a statistical and repeatable approach and include biologically relevant landscape and habitat characteristics. We desired a framework that was spatially hierarchical, discretized the landscape while capturing connectivity (habitat and movements), and supported management questions at different spatial scales. The spatial variability in the amount and quality of habitat resources can affect local population success and result in different population growth rates among smaller clusters. Equally so, the spatial structure and ecological organization driving scale-dependent systems in a fragmented landscape affects dispersal behavior, suggesting inclusion in population monitoring frameworks. Studies that compare conditions among spatially explicit hierarchical clusters may elucidate the cause of differing growth rates at local scales affected by changes in habitat quality compared to larger scaled processes affecting growth rates, such as regional climate/vegetation communities. Therefore, the use of multiple scales (hierarchical cluster levels) that group demographic data can provide information driving population changes at different spatial scales, thereby providing a tool for population monitoring and adaptive management.

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species’ conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., fine-scale) with low genetic diversity relative to regional units (i.e., coarse-scale), further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity for hierarchically nested populations. We developed a spatial data set to display genetic diversity values and conservation concern information from a Genetic Warning System (GWS) for population monitoring of greater sage-grouse, as described in Zimmerman et al. (2022). Here we added the genetic diversity estimates (allelic richness and expected heterozygosity) and GWS information as attributes to the relevant fine-scale (level 2) and coarse-scale (level 13) previously developed hierarchically nested population clusters (O’Donnell et al. 2019, O’Donnell et al. 2022). The GWS incorporates population trend decline watches and warnings from the Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for greater sage-grouse as reported in Coates et al. (2021) to further refine degree of conservation concern.

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species’ conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., fine-scale) with low genetic diversity relative to regional units (i.e., coarse-scale), further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity for hierarchically nested populations. We developed a spatial data set to display genetic diversity values and conservation concern information from a Genetic Warning System (GWS) for population monitoring of greater sage-grouse, as described in Zimmerman et al. (2022). Here we added the genetic diversity estimates (allelic richness and expected heterozygosity) and GWS information as attributes to the relevant fine-scale (level 2) and coarse-scale (level 13) previously developed hierarchically nested population clusters (O’Donnell et al. 2019, O’Donnell et al. 2022). The GWS incorporates population trend decline watches and warnings from the Targeted Annual Warning System (TAWS) for greater sage-grouse as reported in Coates et al. (2021) to further refine degree of conservation concern.

We developed a hierarchical clustering approach that identifies biologically relevant landscape units that can 1) be used as a long-term population monitoring framework, 2) be repeated across the Greater sage-grouse range, 3) be used to track the outcomes of local and regional populations by comparing population changes across scales, and 4) be used to inform where to best spatially target studies that identify the processes and mechanisms causing population trends to change among spatial scales. The spatial variability in the amount and quality of habitat resources can affect local population success and result in different population growth rates among smaller clusters. Equally so, the spatial structure and ecological organization driving scale-dependent systems in a fragmented landscape affects dispersal behavior, suggesting inclusion in population monitoring frameworks. Studies that compare conditions among spatially explicit hierarchical clusters may elucidate the cause of differing growth rates, indicating the appropriate location and spatial scale of a management action. The data presented here reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework and then applying these methods to Greater Sage-grouse in Nevada and Wyoming, US. When using these data for evaluating population changes or when identifying a spatially balanced sampling protocol, all cluster levels are designed to work together and therefore we recommend evaluating multiple cluster levels prior to selecting a single cluster level, if a single scale is desired, when analyzing population growth rates or other analyses, as these data are intended for multi-scale efforts. In other words, let your data decide which scale(s) are appropriate for the given species. These cluster levels are specific to Greater Sage-grouse but they may be appropriate for other sagebrush obligate species, but the user will need to make this determination. The products from this study aim to support multiple research and management needs. However, these data represent an interim data product because there may be errors associated with clusters along the edges of the state boundaries (due to the lack of lek data in neighboring states). We are planning to release new data that we will develop for the Greater sage-grouse range. We recommend using the new data products once available instead of these data products. These data will remain online as they are associated with the following citation, which provides a detailed explanation of the methods used to develop these data: O’Donnell, Michael S., David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Julie A. Heinrichs, Peter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, and Steve E. Hanser. 2018. Designing hierarchically nested and biologically relevant monitoring frameworks to study populations across scales. Ecosphere

We developed a hierarchical clustering approach that identifies biologically relevant landscape units that can 1) be used as a long-term population monitoring framework, 2) be repeated across the Greater sage-grouse range, 3) be used to track the outcomes of local and regional populations by comparing population changes across scales, and 4) be used to inform where to best spatially target studies that identify the processes and mechanisms causing population trends to change among spatial scales. The spatial variability in the amount and quality of habitat resources can affect local population success and result in different population growth rates among smaller clusters. Equally so, the spatial structure and ecological organization driving scale-dependent systems in a fragmented landscape affects dispersal behavior, suggesting inclusion in population monitoring frameworks. Studies that compare conditions among spatially explicit hierarchical clusters may elucidate the cause of differing growth rates, indicating the appropriate location and spatial scale of a management action. The data presented here reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework and then applying these methods to Greater Sage-grouse in Nevada and Wyoming, US. When using these data for evaluating population changes or when identifying a spatially balanced sampling protocol, all cluster levels are designed to work together and therefore we recommend evaluating multiple cluster levels prior to selecting a single cluster level, if a single scale is desired, when analyzing population growth rates or other analyses, as these data are intended for multi-scale efforts. In other words, let your data decide which scale(s) are appropriate for the given species. These cluster levels are specific to Greater Sage-grouse but they may be appropriate for other sagebrush obligate species, but the user will need to make this determination. The products from this study aim to support multiple research and management needs. However, these data represent an interim data product because there may be errors associated with clusters along the edges of the state boundaries (due to the lack of lek data in neighboring states). We are planning to release new data that we will develop for the Greater sage-grouse range. We recommend using the new data products once available instead of these data products. These data will remain online as they are associated with the following citation, which provides a detailed explanation of the methods used to develop these data: O’Donnell, Michael S., David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Julie A. Heinrichs, Peter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, and Steve E. Hanser. 2018. Designing hierarchically nested and biologically relevant monitoring frameworks to study populations across scales. Ecosphere

We developed a hierarchical clustering approach that identifies biologically relevant landscape units that can 1) be used as a long-term population monitoring framework, 2) be repeated across the Greater sage-grouse range, 3) be used to track the outcomes of local and regional populations by comparing population changes across scales, and 4) be used to inform where to best spatially target studies that identify the processes and mechanisms causing population trends to change among spatial scales. The spatial variability in the amount and quality of habitat resources can affect local population success and result in different population growth rates among smaller clusters. Equally so, the spatial structure and ecological organization driving scale-dependent systems in a fragmented landscape affects dispersal behavior, suggesting inclusion in population monitoring frameworks. Studies that compare conditions among spatially explicit hierarchical clusters may elucidate the cause of differing growth rates, indicating the appropriate location and spatial scale of a management action. The data presented here reflect the results from developing a hierarchical monitoring framework and then applying these methods to Greater Sage-grouse in Nevada and Wyoming, US. When using these data for evaluating population changes or when identifying a spatially balanced sampling protocol, all cluster levels are designed to work together and therefore we recommend evaluating multiple cluster levels prior to selecting a single cluster level, if a single scale is desired, when analyzing population growth rates or other analyses, as these data are intended for multi-scale efforts. In other words, let your data decide which scale(s) are appropriate for the given species. These cluster levels are specific to Greater Sage-grouse but they may be appropriate for other sagebrush obligate species, but the user will need to make this determination. The products from this study aim to support multiple research and management needs. However, these data represent an interim data product because there may be errors associated with clusters along the edges of the state boundaries (due to the lack of lek data in neighboring states). We are planning to release new data that we will develop for the Greater sage-grouse range. We recommend using the new data products once available instead of these data products. These data will remain online as they are associated with the following citation, which provides a detailed explanation of the methods used to develop these data: O’Donnell, Michael S., David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Julie A. Heinrichs, Peter S. Coates, Brian G. Prochazka, and Steve E. Hanser. 2018. Designing hierarchically nested and biologically relevant monitoring frameworks to study populations across scales. Ecosphere

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management. We assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. We provide GeoTIFFs of biome-wide projections of future sagebrush ecological integrity (as described in Holdrege et al., 2024) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and time-periods (2031-2060 and 2071-2100) and we provide these projections for multiple model assumptions. Additionally, this data set provides accompanying projections of three of the components of sagebrush ecological integrity, which are the Q (‘quality’, see Doherty et al., 2022) scores for sagebrush, perennial forbs and grasses, and annual forbs and grasses. Additional GeoTIFFs included provide current (2017-2020) Q scores and sagebrush ecological integrity, as well as projected changes in the extent of Core Sagebrush Areas, Growth Opportunity Areas, and Other Rangeland Areas.

Understanding how climate change will contribute to ongoing declines in sagebrush ecological integrity is critical for informing natural resource management. We assessed potential future changes in sagebrush ecological integrity under a range of scenarios using an individual plant-based simulation model, integrated with remotely sensed estimates of current sagebrush ecological integrity. The simulation model allowed us to estimate how climate change, wildfire, and invasive annuals interact to alter the potential abundance of key plant functional types that influence sagebrush ecological integrity: sagebrush, perennial grasses, and annual grasses. We provide GeoTIFFs of biome-wide projections of future sagebrush ecological integrity (as described in Holdrege et al., 2024) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and time-periods (2031-2060 and 2071-2100) and we provide these projections for multiple model assumptions. Additionally, this data set provides accompanying projections of three of the components of sagebrush ecological integrity, which are the Q (‘quality’, see Doherty et al., 2022) scores for sagebrush, perennial forbs and grasses, and annual forbs and grasses. Additional GeoTIFFs included provide current (2017-2020) Q scores and sagebrush ecological integrity, as well as projected changes in the extent of Core Sagebrush Areas, Growth Opportunity Areas, and Other Rangeland Areas.