These data describe the creation, execution, and results of an effort to model the risk of avian influenza transmission across the wild waterfowl - domestic poultry interface at weekly intervals for the contiguous United States.

This data layer depicts the weekly estimates of the relative risk of avian influenza transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry. These data represent an early phase of ongoing model development and the inclusion of additional parameters is upcoming.

This data layer depicts the weekly estimates of the relative risk of avian influenza transmission from wild waterfowl to domestic poultry. These data represent an early phase of ongoing model development and the inclusion of additional parameters is upcoming.

Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 km resolutions for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two types of spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance by species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on species specific prevalence values. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR.

Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 km resolutions for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two types of spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance by species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on species specific prevalence values. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR.

This data release provides the predicted proportion of birds testing positive for IAV for each species at weekly intervals for each county centroid in the continental United States. This data supports a paired USGS publication.

This data release provides the predicted proportion of birds testing positive for IAV for each species at weekly intervals for each county centroid in the continental United States. This data supports a paired USGS publication.

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal trends in transmission risk we developed a model that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds and incorporates H5N1 risk factors. Models were produced at 30 km spatial resolution across two temporal seasons. Files are named using a TransmisisonDirection_Season_DataType format such that Transmission direction can end in a (poultry to waterfowl) or b (waterfowl to poultry), Season can be breeding (br) or wintering (wi), and data type can be the mean predicted transmission (mn) or the coefficient of variation (cv).

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal trends in transmission risk we developed a model that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds and incorporates H5N1 risk factors. Models were produced at 30 km spatial resolution across two temporal seasons. Files are named using a TransmisisonDirection_Season_DataType format such that Transmission direction can end in a (poultry to waterfowl) or b (waterfowl to poultry), Season can be breeding (br) or wintering (wi), and data type can be the mean predicted transmission (mn) or the coefficient of variation (cv).

This data layer depicts the relative susceptibility of poultry to the transmission of Avian Influenza from wild birds based upon poultry type and density for the contiguous United States.