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Techniques for Assessing the Accuracy of Recidivism Prediction Scales, 1960-1980: [Miami, Albuquerque, New York City, Alameda and Los Angeles Counties, and the State of California]
The purpose of this data collection was to measure the validity or accuracy of four recidivism prediction instruments: the INSLAW, RAND, SFS81, and CGR scales. These scales estimate the probability that criminals will commit subsequent crimes quickly, that individuals will commit crime frequently, that inmates who are eligible for release on parole will commit subsequent crimes, and that defendants awaiting trial will commit crimes while on pretrial arrest or detention. The investigators used longitudinal data from five existing independent studies to assess the validity of the four predictive measures in question. The first data file was originally collected by the Vera Institute of Justice in New York City and was derived from an experimental evaluation of a jobs training program called the Alternative Youth Employment Strategies Project implemented in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Miami, Florida, and New York City, New York. The second file contains data from a RAND Corporation study, EFFECTS OF PRISON VERSUS PROBATION IN CALIFORNIA, 1980-1982 (ICPSR 8700), from offenders in Alameda and Los Angeles counties, California. Parts 3 through 5 pertain to serious juvenile offenders who were incarcerated during the 1960s and 1970s in three institutions of the California Youth Authority. A portion of the original data for these parts was taken from EARLY IDENTIFICATION OF THE CHRONIC OFFENDER, [1978-1980: CALIFORNIA] (ICPSR 8226). All files present demographic and socioeconomic variables such as birth information, race and ethnicity, education background, work and military experience, and criminal history, including involvement in criminal activities, drug addiction, and incarceration episodes. From the variables in each data file, standard variables across all data files were constructed. Constructed variables included those on background (such as drug use, arrest, conviction, employment, and education history), which were used to construct the four predictive scales, and follow-up variables concerning arrest and incarceration history. Scores on the four predictive scales were estimated.
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Criminal Violence and Incapacitation in California, 1962-1988
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These data were gathered to investigate the usefulness of statistical methods, particularly multiple-regression analysis, in predicting repeat criminal activity subsequent to an individual's release from prison. The data collection consists of follow-up information, collected in 1988, on a sample of males released from California prisons. The follow-up study identified criminal activity subsequent to individuals' release from prison through 1988. Predictor variables include age, prior periods of arrest, history of drug use, seriousness of original offense, and number of arrests for nuisance, person, property, and fraud offenses.
Predicting Recidivism in North Carolina, 1978 and 1980
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This data collection examines the relationship between individual characteristics and recidivism for two cohorts of inmates released from North Carolina prisons in 1978 and 1980. The survey contains questions on the background of the offenders, including their involvement in drugs or alcohol, level of schooling, nature of the crime resulting in the sample conviction, number of prior incarcerations and recidivism following release from the sample incarceration. The data collection also contains information on the length of time until recidivism occurs.
Examination of Actuarial Offender-Based Prediction Assessments in Texas, 1993-1996
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The purpose of this study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the usefulness and effectiveness of prediction and classification of offenders under community supervision. A felony cohort data collection instrument was developed to test the validity of the Wisconsin Risk and Need Instrument in use in Texas, as well as to develop "better" predictor variables for a variety of dependent variables. Using the felony cohort data instrument, the Texas Department of Criminal Justice Community Justice Assistance Division (TDCJ-CJAD) collected detailed statewide information on 3,405 felony offenders placed on probation in Texas during October 1993. Specifically, the form was completed by a probation officer on all felony probation intakes at the time the initial case classification risk/needs assessment was conducted. Additionally, follow-up forms were developed and administered to track the offenders' progress at one year, two years, and three years. Variables include probationer information, current offense, criminal history, social history, substance abuse, probation sanctions, case classification risk items, and case classification need items. Additional variables include felony cohort one-year follow-up data form questions, felony cohort second-year follow-up data form questions, and felony cohort third-year follow-up data form questions.
Effects of Incarceration on Criminal Trajectories in the United States, 1994
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Using data from RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 1994: [UNITED STATES] (ICPSR 3355), this study developed an analytical approach to utilize detailed dated criminal arrest history information in order to investigate whether, and to what extent, incarceration is able to deter offenders from future offending. This data collection consists of the syntax for a SAS macro used to estimate individual specific offending micro-trajectories, project counterfactual trajectories, and to assess the actual post-release offending patterns against the backdrop of these counterfactuals. The arrest records of individuals were clustered in chronological order and were truncated after the first post-release re-arrest event. The key independent variables used in estimating the pre-release criminal history accumulation process included the arrest number, the age at first arrest, whether or not the individual was confined as a result of the previous arrest event, and a measure of the number of years taken to reach each arrest event cumulated through the last arrest event. The same set of basic variables were used to model first re-arrest after release (recidivism).
Criminal Recidivism in a Large Cohort of Offenders Released from Prison in Florida, 2004-2008
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The purpose of the study was to quantify the effect of the embrace of DNA technology on offender behavior. In particular, researchers examined whether an offender's knowledge that their DNA profile was entered into a database deterred them from offending in the future and if probative effects resulted from DNA sampling. The researchers coded information using criminal history records and data from Florida's DNA database, both of which are maintained by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), and also utilized court docket information acquired through the Florida Department of Corrections (FDOC) to create a dataset of 156,702 cases involving offenders released from the FDOC in the state of Florida between January 1996 and December 2004. The data contain a total of 50 variables. Major categories of variables include demographic variables regarding the offender, descriptive variables relating to the initial crime committed by the offender, and time-specific variables regarding cases of recidivism.
Validation of the RAND Selective Incapacitation Survey and the Iowa Risk Assessment Scale in Colorado, 1982 and 1986
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This data collection was designed to replicate the Rand Selective Incapacitation Survey and the Iowa Risk Assessment Scale using a group of Colorado offenders. The Iowa model provides two assessments of offender risk: (1) a measure of general risk to society and (2) a measure of the risk of new violence. The Iowa dataset includes crime information from defendants' self-reports and from official crime records. Both files contain important self-report items such as perceived probability of being caught, weapon used in the offense committed, months free on the street during the reference period, and detailed activity description during the free period. Other items covered include employment history, plans, reasons for committing the crime, and attitudes toward life, law, prisons, and police.
Recidivism in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 - Standalone Data (Rounds 1 to 13)
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The NLSY97 standalone data files are intended to be used by crime researchers for analyses without requiring supplementation from the main NLSY97 data set. The data contain age-based calendar year variables on arrests and incarcerations, self-reported criminal activity, substance use, demographic variables and relevant variables from other domains which are created using the NLSY97 data. The main NLSY97 data are available for public use and can be accessed online at the NLS Investigator Web site and at the NACJD Web site (as ICPSR 3959). Questionnaires, user guides and other documentation are available at the same links. The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) was designed by the United States Department of Labor, comprising the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS) Series. Created to be representative of United States residents in 1997 who were born between the years of 1980 and 1984, the NLSY97 documents the transition from school to work experienced by today's youths through data collection from 1997. The majority of the oldest cohort members (age 16 as of December 31, 1996) were still in school during the first survey round and the youngest respondents (age 12) had not yet entered the labor market.
Multi-State Recidivism Study Using Static-99R and Static-2002 Risk Scores and Tier Guidelines From the Adam Walsh Act, Florida, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, 1990-2004
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This study seeks to examine important components of our nation's sex offender tracking and monitoring systems, with a focus on risk assessment and sexual recidivism (measured by re-arrest). Data were collected from 1,789 adult sex offenders in the following states. Florida: 500 cases Minnesota: 500 cases New Jersey: 291 cases South Carolina: 498 cases The data file contains another 551 cases from the state of Massachusetts. However, due to how and when those cases were identified they were not included in the Principal Investigator's focus and analysis. There are also another 151 cases where a study participant's state is missing. Total there are 2,491 cases and 1,947 variables.
Criminal Careers, Criminal Violence, and Substance Abuse in California, 1963-1983
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The purpose of the study was to investigate the criminal career patterns of violent offenders. These data are intended to facilitate the development of models to predict recidivism and violence, and to construct parole supervision programs. Original data were collected on young male offenders in 1964 and 1965 as they entered the California Youth Authority (CYA). At this time, data were collected on criminal history, including current offenses, drug and alcohol use, psychological and personality variables, and sentencing, and demographics such as age, education, work experience, and family structure. The data collection also contains results from a number of standardized psychological instruments: California Psychological Inventory, Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, California Achievement Test Battery, General Aptitude Test Battery, Army General Classification Test, and the Revised Beta Test. After release from the CYA and over the following 20 years, subsequent arrest information was collected on the offenders, including the nature of the offense, disposition, and arrest and parole dates.
Early Identification of the Chronic Offender, [1978-1980: California]
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Patterns of adult criminal behavior are examined in this data collection. Data covering the adult years of peak criminal activity (from approximately 18 to 26 years of age) were obtained from samples of delinquent youths who had been incarcerated in three California Youth Authority institutions during the 1960s: Preston, Fricot, and the Northern California Youth Center. Data were obtained from three sources: official arrest records of the California Bureau of Criminal Investigation and Identification (CII), supplementary data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the California Bureau of Vital Statistics. Follow-up data were collected between 1978 and 1981. There are two files per sample site. The first is a background data file containing information obtained while the subjects were housed in Youth Authority institutions, and the second is a follow-up history offense file containing data from arrest records. Each individual is identified by a unique ID number, which is the same in the background and offense history files.