Water-quality and streamflow datasets used in Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models to determine trends in the Nation’s rivers and streams, 1972-2017
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In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a study of more than 50 major river basins across the Nation as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) project. One of the major goals of the NAWQA project was to determine how river water quality has changed over time. To support that goal, long-term consistent and comparable monitoring has been conducted by the USGS on streams and rivers throughout the Nation. Outside of the NAWQA project, the USGS and other Federal, State, and local agencies also have collected long-term water-quality data to support their own assessments of changing water quality. In 2017, data from these multiple sources were combined to support one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of water-quality trends in the United States (Oelsner and others, 2017; De Cicco and others, 2017). This data release updates these water quality trends, which ended in 2012, with 5 more years of data and now end in 2017. This USGS data release contains all the input and output files necessary to reproduce the results from the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models, using data preparation methods described in Oelsner and others, 2017. Models were calibrated for each combination of site and parameter using the screened input data. Models were run on Yeti, the USGS supercomputer, in 3 separate runs, using the scripts in the "Script.zip" folder. See readMe.txt for details on how the files in this data release are related and the modeling process. "SiteTable.csv" gives information on sites used in this analysis. Once calibrated, the WRTDS models were initially evaluated using a logistic regression equation that estimated a probability of acceptance for each model (e.g., "a good fit") based on a set of diagnostic metrics derived from the observed, estimated, and residual values from each model and data set. Each WRTDS model was assigned to one of three categories: “auto-accept,” “auto-reject,” or “manual evaluation". Models assigned to the latter category were visually evaluated for appropriate model fit using residual and diagnostic plots. Models assigned to the first two categories were automatically included or rejected from the final results, respectively. Twenty-two water-quality parameters were assessed, including nutrients (ammonia, nitrate, filtered orthophosphate, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and unfiltered orthophosphate), major ions (calcium, bromide, fluoride, chloride, magnesium, potassium, sodium, and sulfate), salinity indicators (total dissolved solids and specific conductance), sediment (total suspended solids and suspended sediment concentration), carbon (dissolved organic carbon, total organic carbon, and particulate organic carbon), and alkalinity. Trends are reported for six periods: 1972-2017, 1982-2017, 1987-2017, 1992-2017, 2002-2017, and 2007-2017.
Water-quality trends and trend component estimates for the Nation's rivers and streams using Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and generalized flow normalization, 1972-2012
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Nonstationary streamflow due to environmental and human-induced causes can affect water quality over time, yet these effects are poorly accounted for in water-quality trend models. This data release provides instream water-quality trends and estimates of two components of change, for sites across the Nation previously presented in Oelsner et al. (2017). We used previously calibrated Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models published in De Cicco et al. (2017) to estimate instream water-quality trends and associated uncertainties with the generalized flow normalization procedure available in EGRET version 3.0 (Hirsch et al., 2018a) and EGRETci version 2.0 (Hirsch et al., 2018b). The procedure allows for nonstationarity in the flow regime, whereas previous versions of EGRET assumed streamflow stationarity. Water-quality trends of annual mean concentrations and loads (also referred to as fluxes) are provided as an annual series and the change between the start and end year for four trend periods (1972-2012, 1982-2012, 1992-2012, and 2002-2012). Information about the sites, including the collecting agency and associated streamflow gage, and information about site selection and the data screening process can be found in Oelsner et al. (2017). This data release includes results for 19 water-quality parameters including nutrients (ammonia, nitrate, filtered and unfiltered orthophosphate, total nitrogen, total phosphorus), major ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, potassium, sodium, sulfate), salinity indicators (specific conductance, total dissolved solids), carbon (alkalinity, dissolved organic carbon, total organic carbon), and sediment (total suspended solids, suspended-sediment concentration) at over 1,200 sites. Note, the number of parameters with data varies by site with most sites having data for 1-4 parameters. Each water-quality trend was parsed into two components of change: (1) the streamflow trend component (QTC) and (2) the watershed management trend component (MTC). The QTC is an indicator of the amount of change in the water-quality trend attributed to changes in the streamflow regime, and the MTC is an indicator of the amount of change in the water-quality trend that may be attributed to human actions and changes in point and non-point sources in a watershed. Note, the MTC is referred to as the concentration-discharge trend component (CQTC) in the EGRET version 3.0 software. For our work, we chose to refer to this trend component as the MTC because it provides a more conceptual description (Murphy and Sprague, 2019). The trend results presented here expand upon the results in De Cicco et al. (2017) and Oelsner et al. (2017), which were analyzed using flow-normalization under the stationary streamflow assumption. The results presented in this data release are intended to complement these previously published results and support investigations into natural and human effects on water-quality trends across the United States. Data preparation information and WRTDS model specifications are described in Oelsner et al. (2017) and Murphy and Sprague (2019). This work was completed as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) project of the National Water-Quality Program. De Cicco, L.A., Sprague, L.A., Murphy, J.C., Riskin, M.L., Falcone, J.A., Stets, E.G., Oelsner, G.P., and Johnson, H.M., 2017, Water-quality and streamflow datasets used in the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models to determine trends in the Nation’s rivers and streams, 1972-2012 (ver. 1.1 July 7, 2017): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7KW5D4H. Hirsch, R., De Cicco, L., Watkins, D., Carr, L., and Murphy, J., 2018a, EGRET: Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends, version 3.0, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=EGRET. Hirsch, R., De Cicco, L., and Murphy, J., 2018b, EGRETci: Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends (EGRET) Confidence Intervals, version 2.0.