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Early Model-based Provisional Estimates of Drug Overdose, Suicide, and Transportation-related Deaths
This dataset provides model-based provisional estimates of the weekly numbers of drug overdose, suicide, and transportation-related deaths using “nowcasting” methods to account for the normal lag between the occurrence and reporting of these deaths. Estimates less than 10 are suppressed. These early model-based provisional estimates were generated using a multi-stage hierarchical Bayesian modeling process to generate smoothed estimates of the weekly numbers of death, accounting for reporting lags. These estimates are based on several assumptions about how the reporting lags have changed in recent months across different jurisdictions, and the resulting estimates differ from other sources of provisional mortality data. For now, these estimates should be considered highly uncertain until further evaluations can be done to determine the validity of these assumptions about timeliness. The true patterns in reporting lags will not be known until data are finalized, typically 11–12 months after the end of the calendar year. Importantly, these estimates are not a replacement for monthly provisional drug overdose death counts, or quarterly provisional mortality estimates. For more detail about the nowcasting methods and models, see: Rossen LM, Hedegaard H, Warner M, Ahmad FB, Sutton PD. Early provisional estimates of drug overdose, suicide, and transportation-related deaths: Nowcasting methods to account for reporting lags. Vital Statistics Rapid Release; no 11. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. February 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15620/ cdc:101132
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VSRR Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts
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This data presents provisional counts for drug overdose deaths based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. Counts for the most recent final annual data are provided for comparison. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia as of the date specified and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period. Provisional counts are often incomplete and causes of death may be pending investigation resulting in an underestimate relative to final counts. To address this, methods were developed to adjust provisional counts for reporting delays by generating a set of predicted provisional counts. Several data quality metrics, including the percent completeness in overall death reporting, percentage of deaths with cause of death pending further investigation, and the percentage of drug overdose deaths with specific drugs or drug classes reported are included to aid in interpretation of provisional data as these measures are related to the accuracy of provisional counts. Reporting of the specific drugs and drug classes involved in drug overdose deaths varies by jurisdiction, and comparisons of death rates involving specific drugs across selected jurisdictions should not be made. Provisional data presented will be updated on a monthly basis as additional records are received. For more information please visit: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm
Provisional drug overdose death counts for specific drugs
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This data presents counts of provisional drug overdose deaths by selected drugs and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) public health regions, based on provisional mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. This data is limited to drug overdose deaths with an underlying cause of death assigned to International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code numbers X40-X44 (unintentional), X60-X64 (suicide), X85 (homicide), or Y10-Y14 (undetermined intent). Specific drugs were identified using methods for searching literal text from death certificates. The provisional data are based on a current flow of mortality data and include reported 12 month-ending provisional counts of drug overdose deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence and specified drug. Provisional drug overdose death counts presented on this page are for “12-month ending periods,” defined as the number of deaths occurring in the 12-month period ending in the month indicated. For example, the 12-month ending period in June 2022 would include deaths occurring from July 1, 2021, through June 30, 2022. Evaluation of trends over time should compare estimates from year to year (June 2021 and June 2022), rather than month to month, to avoid overlapping time periods. It is important to note that the data represent counts of deaths, and not mortality ratios or rates, which are the standard measure used to compare groups, and therefore should not be used to determine populations at disproportionate risk of drug overdose death.
Provisional Drug Overdose Deaths by Urban/Rural Classification Scheme for 12 month-ending December 2018-December 2020
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National provisional drug overdose deaths by month and 2013 NCHS Urban–Rural Classification Scheme for Counties. Drug overdose deaths are identified using underlying cause-of-death codes from the Tenth Revision of ICD (ICD–10): X40–X44 (unintentional), X60–X64 (suicide), X85 (homicide), and Y10–Y14 (undetermined). Deaths are based on the county of residence in the United States. Death counts provided are for “12-month ending periods,” defined as the number of deaths occurring in the 12-month period ending in the month indicated. Estimates for 2020 are based on provisional data. Estimates for 2018 and 2019 are based on final data. For more information on NCHS urban-rural classification, see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_166.pdf
Preliminary Unintentional Drug Overdose Deaths
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A. SUMMARY This dataset includes data from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner on the number of preliminary unintentional fatal drug overdoses per month. B. HOW THE DATASET IS CREATED The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner releases a monthly report containing the previous month’s preliminary count of unintentional fatal drug overdoses. This dataset is manually updated based on that report. The San Francisco Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) investigates any unknown cause of death for deaths that occur in San Francisco. OCME uses drug testing, death scene investigation, autopsy, medical record, and informant information to determine the cause of death. Preliminary determinations are generally based on drug testing and death scene investigations. Preliminary deaths reported by the medical examiner consist of two categories: (a) cases that are still under investigation and involve suspected acute toxicity from opioids, cocaine, or methamphetamine; and (b) cases that have been finalized and were attributed to acute toxicity from any substance (including prescribed medication and over-the-counter medication). C. UPDATE PROCESS This dataset is updated monthly following the release of the monthly accidental fatal drug overdose report from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner. Department of Public Health staff manually copy data from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner’s report to update this dataset. D. HOW TO USE THIS DATASET This dataset is updated each month to include the most recent month’s preliminary accidental fatal drug overdose count. Counts from previous months are often also updated as it can take more than a month for the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner to finish reviewing cases. E. RELATED DATASETS San Francisco Department of Public Health Substance Use Services Overdose-Related 911 Responses by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) Unintentional Drug Overdose Death Rate by Race/Ethnicity
Provisional weekly death counts, by selected grouped causes of death
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,This table provides Canadians and researchers with provisional data to monitor weekly death trends by selected grouped causes of death in Canada. Given the delays in receiving the data from the provincial and territorial vital statistics offices, these data are considered provisional. Data in this table will be available by province and territory.,