Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landward in response to accelerated sea-level rise. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization extent, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate wetland migration. The landward movement of wetlands requires suitable conditions, such as a gradual slope and land free of urban development. Urban barriers can constrain migration and result in wetland loss (coastal squeeze). For future-focused conservation planning purposes, there is a pressing need to quantify and compare the potential for wetland landward movement and coastal squeeze. For 41 estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the USA gulf coast), we quantified and compared the area available for the landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration (coastal squeeze), under three alternative future sea-level rise scenarios (0.5-, 1.0-, and 1.5-m by 2100).

We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the 1.5 m global SLR scenario to evaluate the potential for wetland migration into all the individual C-CAP classes and into the following six land cover categories: (1) freshwater forest (wetland); (2) freshwater marsh (wetland); (3) terrestrial forest (upland); (4) terrestrial grassland (upland); (5) agricultural croplands (upland); and (6) pasture (upland). We also consolidated these categories to quantify potential migration into upland and wetland classes. Finally, we used the current C-CAP cover classes to quantify the current tidal saline wetland area and the current freshwater wetland area that is vulnerable to future tidal saline wetland migration.

We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the 1.5 m global SLR scenario to evaluate the potential for wetland migration into all the individual C-CAP classes and into the following six land cover categories: (1) freshwater forest (wetland); (2) freshwater marsh (wetland); (3) terrestrial forest (upland); (4) terrestrial grassland (upland); (5) agricultural croplands (upland); and (6) pasture (upland). We also consolidated these categories to quantify potential migration into upland and wetland classes. Finally, we used the current C-CAP cover classes to quantify the current tidal saline wetland area and the current freshwater wetland area that is vulnerable to future tidal saline wetland migration.

These data were used to quantify land area change in a wetlands possible zone of coastal wetlands during a 1985-2020 observation period. The datasets presented in this data release represent annual median estimates of the fractional amount of land, floating aquatic vegetation, submerged aquatic vegetation, and water per Landsat pixel. These data are intended for coarse-scale analysis of wetland change area. The datasets are summarized by 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC10), and land area change through time is fit using a penalized regression smooth spline. The trends are therefore generalized in time and are intended to present coarse scale observations of trends in wetland area change.

These data were used to quantify land area change in a wetlands possible zone of coastal wetlands during a 1985-2020 observation period. The datasets presented in this data release represent annual median estimates of the fractional amount of land, floating aquatic vegetation, submerged aquatic vegetation, and water per Landsat pixel. These data are intended for coarse-scale analysis of wetland change area. The datasets are summarized by 10-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC10), and land area change through time is fit using a penalized regression smooth spline. The trends are therefore generalized in time and are intended to present coarse scale observations of trends in wetland area change.

This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was assessed between estuarine vegetated wetlands (i.e., estuarine marshes, mangroves, non-mangrove estuarine woody wetlands, and salt pannes, depending on vegetation coverage and type) and the following other landcover classes: 1) water; 2) unconsolidated shore; 3) freshwater woody wetlands; 4) freshwater marsh; 5) upland; and 6) agriculture. An estuarine vegetated wetland change scenario was assigned to each region depending on different combinations of positive and negative net change in some of these classes which describes how land building, transgression, or tidal restoration compare to estuarine vegetated wetland loss. This dataset also includes relative statistics of change compared to estuarine vegetated wetland and estuary area.

This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was assessed between estuarine vegetated wetlands (i.e., estuarine marshes, mangroves, non-mangrove estuarine woody wetlands, and salt pannes, depending on vegetation coverage and type) and the following other landcover classes: 1) water; 2) unconsolidated shore; 3) freshwater woody wetlands; 4) freshwater marsh; 5) upland; and 6) agriculture. An estuarine vegetated wetland change scenario was assigned to each region depending on different combinations of positive and negative net change in some of these classes which describes how land building, transgression, or tidal restoration compare to estuarine vegetated wetland loss. This dataset also includes relative statistics of change compared to estuarine vegetated wetland and estuary area.

This dataset consists of raster geotiff outputs from modeling vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in the Nisqually River Delta, Washington, USA. These rasters represent projections of future habitat type, change in surface elevation above Mean Sea Level, and total sediment carbon accumulation since 2011 in coastal wetland habitats. Projections were generated in 20-year increments for 100 years for five amounts of sea-level rise, three amounts of suspended sediment concentrations, and two alternative configurations of the U.S. Interstate-5 causeway as it crosses the Nisqually River to either prevent or allow inland habitat migration (a total of 30 scenarios). The full methods and results are described in detail in the parent manuscript, “Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and its value to sea-level rise for adaptation planning in a Puget Sound estuary” (2022).

This dataset consists of raster geotiff outputs from modeling vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in the Nisqually River Delta, Washington, USA. These rasters represent projections of future habitat type, change in surface elevation above Mean Sea Level, and total sediment carbon accumulation since 2011 in coastal wetland habitats. Projections were generated in 20-year increments for 100 years for five amounts of sea-level rise, three amounts of suspended sediment concentrations, and two alternative configurations of the U.S. Interstate-5 causeway as it crosses the Nisqually River to either prevent or allow inland habitat migration (a total of 30 scenarios). The full methods and results are described in detail in the parent manuscript, “Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and its value to sea-level rise for adaptation planning in a Puget Sound estuary” (2022).

This dataset consists of raster geotiff outputs from modeling vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in the Nisqually River Delta, Washington, USA. These rasters represent projections of future habitat type, change in surface elevation above Mean Sea Level, and total sediment carbon accumulation since 2011 in coastal wetland habitats. Projections were generated in 20-year increments for 100 years for five amounts of sea-level rise, three amounts of suspended sediment concentrations, and two alternative configurations of the U.S. Interstate-5 causeway as it crosses the Nisqually River to either prevent or allow inland habitat migration (a total of 30 scenarios). The full methods and results are described in detail in the parent manuscript, “Can coastal habitats rise to the challenge? Resilience of estuarine habitats, carbon accumulation, and its value to sea-level rise for adaptation planning in a Puget Sound estuary” (2022).