We developed predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density based on seven shipboard cetacean surveys conducted during summer and fall between 1991 and 2009 in the California Current Ecosystem. Models were built for 14 taxonomically diverse species/species groups including striped dolphin, short-beaked common dolphin, long-beaked common dolphin, Pacific white-sided dolphin, northern right whale dolphin, Risso's dolphin, common bottlenose dolphin, Dall's porpoise, sperm whale, fin whale, humpback whale, blue whale, Baird's beaked whale and a small beaked whale guild (Mesoplondon spp. and Cuvier's beaked whale).

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important management tools for highly mobile marine species because they provide spatially and temporally explicit information on animal distribution. Two prevalent modeling frameworks used to develop SDMs for marine species are Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), but comparative studies have rarely been conducted; most rely on presence-only data; and few have explored how features such as species distribution characteristics affect model performance. Since the majority of marine species BRTs have been used to predict habitat suitability, we first compared BRTs to GAMs that used presence/absence as the response variable. We then compared results from these habitat suitability models to GAMs that predict species density (animals km-2) because density models built with a subset of the data used here have previously received extensive validation. We compared both the explanatory power (i.e., model goodness-of-fit) and predictive power (i.e., performance on a novel dataset) of the GAMs and BRTs for a taxonomically diverse suite of cetacean species using a robust set of systematic survey data (1991-2014) within the California Current Ecosystem. Both BRTs and GAMs were successful at describing overall distribution patterns throughout the study area for the majority of species considered, but when predicting on novel data, the density GAMs exhibited substantially greater predictive power than both the presence/absence GAMs and BRTs, likely due to both the different response variables and fitting algorithms. Our results provide an improved understanding of some of the strengths and limitations of models developed using these two methods. These results can be used by modelers developing SDMs and resource managers tasked with the spatial management of marine species to determine the best modeling technique for their question of interest.

The central North Pacific Ocean includes diverse temperate and tropical pelagic habitats. Studies of the abundance and distribution of cetaceans within these dynamic marine ecosystems have generally been patchy or conducted at coarse spatial and temporal scales, limiting their utility for pelagic conservation planning. Habitat-based density models provide a tool for identifying pelagic areas of importance to cetaceans, because model predictions are spatially explicit. In this study, we present habitat-based models of cetacean density that were developed and validated for the central North Pacific. Spatial predictions of cetacean densities and measures of uncertainty were derived based on data collected during 15 large-scale shipboard cetacean and ecosystem assessment surveys conducted from 1997 to 2012. We developed generalized additive models using static and remotely sensed dynamic habitat variables, including distance to land, sea-surface temperature (SST), standard deviation of SST, surface chlorophyll concentration, seasurface height (SSH), and SSH root-mean-square variation. The resulting models, developed using new grid-based prediction methods, provide finer scale information on the distribution and density of cetaceans than previously available. Habitat-based abundance estimates around Hawaii are similar to those derived from standard line-transect analyses of the same data and provide enhanced spatial resolution to inform management and conservation of pelagic cetacean species.

To develop improved and updated species distribution models (SDMs) and to update cetacean stock abundance estimates for waters of the US Hawaiian EEZ, sighting data from the Hawaiian Islands Cetacean and Ecosystem Assessment Survey (HICEAS) 2017 were combined with previous line-transect survey data collected within the study area to create a modeling database spanning the period from 2002 to 2017. The majority of these data were from the two previous HICEAS efforts, the first in 2002 and the second in 2010. In contrast to previous modeling efforts that included survey data from a broader region of the central Pacific Ocean, the current SDMs were built only with survey data collected within waters of the Hawaiian EEZ. Habitat models were developed to derive spatially-explicit estimates of species density specific to the Hawaiian EEZ based on previously established methods that allow for the incorporation of segment-specific estimates of detection probability. Potential habitat variables included bathymetric depth, distance to islands, and a suite of dynamic surface and subsurface outputs from an ocean circulation model. The habitat-based models of cetacean density developed in this study represent an improvement over previous models because they more accurately account for variation in detection probabilities, provide finer-scale density predictions (~9km x 9km grid resolution), and better account for uncertainty in the resulting study area abundance estimates. In addition, they include dynamic subsurface variables that were not available for the previous models. Further, increases in sample sizes allowed for the development of a new habitat model for Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus).

A predictive habitat-based model of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) density for waters within the Hawaiian Islands Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was developed based on systematic ship survey data collected in waters of the Main Hawaiian Islands in February 2009. Potential habitat variables included bathymetric depth and a suite of dynamic outputs from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model. The final habitat model exhibited high explanatory power based on established metrics and comparison of model-predicted absolute density to observed patterns of relative density around the Main Hawaiian Islands. The model was then used to create spatial predictions of humpback whale density and measures of uncertainty for the entire Hawaiian Islands EEZ. Predictions outside the original survey area were validated based on previously published predictions of relative density throughout the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The resulting model provides spatially explicit density predictions at a scale of approximately 9km x 9km kilometers and provides a tool for assessing potential impacts to humpback whales within the Hawaiian Islands EEZ.

The National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) updates and revises the management plans for each of its 13 sanctuaries. This process, which is open to the public, enables each site to revisit the reasons for sanctuary designation and assess whether they are meeting their goals, as well as to set new goals consistent with the mandates of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act. Issues raised by the public during this process are evaluated and a determination is made as to whether they will be incorporated into the updated plan. Many of these issues focus on topics such as the implementation of marine zoning or sanctuary boundary adjustments, both of which require information on the distribution of resources within and around the sanctuary. Recognizing this, NMSP and NOAA?s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) formalized an agreement to collaborate in the revision process by developing such information through a series of biogeographic assessments conducted in selected sanctuaries. The resulting products are then supplied to sanctuary managers and staff for use in the policy and decision making process. This collaborative effort began along the west coast of the U.S. with the Cordell Bank, Gulf of Farallones, and Monterey Bay national marine sanctuaries, and is herein centered on the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS).

This data set is a compilation of modeled seabird prevalence predictions for a selection of species including Razorbill (Alca torda), Greater Shearwater (Puffinus gravis), Wilson’s Storm-petrel (Oceanites oceanicus), Northern Gannet (Morus bassanus), and all auks (Alcidae), and relative abundance of cetaceans including humpback whale (megaptera novaeangliae), right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis), and fin whale (Balaenoptera musculus). These data were generated to improve the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary management plan review and coastal zone management decisions in the Gulf of Maine and surrounding area. These geospatial data sets are part of a large compilation of data provided in the referenced NCCOS (2006) technical memorandum.

The National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) updates and revises the management plans for each of its 13 sanctuaries. This process, which is open to the public, enables each site to revisit the reasons for sanctuary designation and assess whether they are meeting their goals, as well as to set new goals consistent with the mandates of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act. Issues raised by the public during this process are evaluated and a determination is made as to whether they will be incorporated into the updated plan. Many of these issues focus on topics such as the implementation of marine zoning or sanctuary boundary adjustments, both of which require information on the distribution of resources within and around the sanctuary. Recognizing this, NMSP and NOAA?s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) formalized an agreement to collaborate in the revision process by developing such information through a series of biogeographic assessments conducted in selected sanctuaries. The resulting products are then supplied to sanctuary managers and staff for use in the policy and decision making process. This collaborative effort began along the west coast of the U.S. with the Cordell Bank, Gulf of Farallones, and Monterey Bay national marine sanctuaries, and is herein centered on the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS).

The Office of National Marine Sanctuary Program (ONMS) updates and revises the management plans for each of its 13 sanctuaries. This process, which is open to the public, enables each site to revisit the reasons for sanctuary designation and assess whether they are meeting their goals, as well as to set new goals consistent with the mandates of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act. Issues raised by the public during this process are evaluated and a determination is made as to whether they will be incorporated into the updated plan. Many of these issues focus on topics such as the implementation of marine zoning or sanctuary boundary adjustments, both of which require information on the distribution of resources within and around the sanctuary. Recognizing this, ONMS and NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) formalized an agreement to collaborate in the revision process by developing such information through a series of biogeographic assessments conducted in selected sanctuaries. The resulting products are then supplied to sanctuary managers and staff for use in the policy and decision making process. This collaborative effort began along the west coast of the U.S. with the Cordell Bank, Gulf of Farallones, and Monterey Bay national marine sanctuaries, and is herein centered on the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS).

The National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) updates and revises the management plans for each of its 13 sanctuaries. This process, which is open to the public, enables each site to revisit the reasons for sanctuary designation and assess whether they are meeting their goals, as well as to set new goals consistent with the mandates of the National Marine Sanctuaries Act. Issues raised by the public during this process are evaluated and a determination is made as to whether they will be incorporated into the updated plan. Many of these issues focus on topics such as the implementation of marine zoning or sanctuary boundary adjustments, both of which require information on the distribution of resources within and around the sanctuary. Recognizing this, NMSP and NOAA?s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) formalized an agreement to collaborate in the revision process by developing such information through a series of biogeographic assessments conducted in selected sanctuaries. The resulting products are then supplied to sanctuary managers and staff for use in the policy and decision making process. This collaborative effort began along the west coast of the U.S. with the Cordell Bank, Gulf of Farallones, and Monterey Bay national marine sanctuaries, and is herein centered on the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS).