This is a README file to indicate the locations of codes, data sets, and other supporting materials. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Spero , T., C. Nolte , J.H. Bowden, M.S. Mallard, and J. Herwehe. The Impact of Incongruous Lake Temperatures on Regional Climate Extremes Downscaled from the CMIP5 Archive Using the WRF Model. Journal of Climate. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, USA, 29(2): 839-853, (2016).

This dataset includes model projections of seasonal temperature (T), precipitation (P), and runoff (R) from 214 climate simulations from coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) 3 and CMIP5 scenarios for 19-year periods centered on 2030, 2060, and 2090. The summaries of the climate model projections are presented as percentiles (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th) of seasonal (October through March, January through March, April through June, and July through September) changes in T, P, and R for the 214 climate models. The metrics are calculated from variables previously summarized across the conterminous United States for hydrologic response units of the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (Viger and Bock, 2014). T, P, and R were previously derived using a monthly water balance model (Bock and others, 2016; 2017). Names, sources, and references of the climate inputs are described in Bock and others (2017).

A monthly water-balance model (MWBM) is applied to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2100 under ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 scenarios for the Contiguous United States. The statistically downscaled LOCA2 temperature and precipitation projections from 27 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6) are use as input to the water balance model. This data set supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (ver. 2). The statistically downscaled data set is: CMIP6-LOCA2: Localized Constructed Analogs (Pierce et al. 2023, bias corrected by a modified version of Livneh et al. 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the data set home page: LOCA: https://loca.ucsd.edu Bias correction data set: https://cirrus.ucsd.edu/~pierce/nonsplit_precip/ The 27 included GCMs are: ACCESS-CM2, ACCESS-ESM1-5, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2-LENS, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, CanESM5, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, FGOALS-g3, GFDL-CM4, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, MIROC6, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1 There are 72 simulations in total (ssp245=24, ssp370=23, ssp585=25). While the LOCA2 data set supports multiple realizations per model; one MWBM realization per model is provided herein (predominately r1i1p1f1, except when this realization was not available).

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. This dataset supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer. The statistically downscaled dataset is: MACAv2-METDATA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (Abatzoglou & Brown, 2012, bias corrected by METDATA, Abatzoglou, 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the dataset home page: MACAv2-METDATA: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net The 20 included GCMs are: bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 CC365, HadGEM2-ES365, inmcm4,IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC ESM CHEM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. This dataset supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer. The statistically downscaled dataset is: MACAv2-METDATA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (Abatzoglou & Brown, 2012, bias corrected by METDATA, Abatzoglou, 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the dataset home page: MACAv2-METDATA: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net The 20 included GCMs are: bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 CC365, HadGEM2-ES365, inmcm4,IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC ESM CHEM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. This dataset supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer. The statistically downscaled dataset is: MACAv2-METDATA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (Abatzoglou & Brown, 2012, bias corrected by METDATA, Abatzoglou, 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the dataset home page: MACAv2-METDATA: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net The 20 included GCMs are: bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 CC365, HadGEM2-ES365, inmcm4,IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC ESM CHEM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. This dataset supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer. The statistically downscaled dataset is: MACAv2-METDATA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (Abatzoglou & Brown, 2012, bias corrected by METDATA, Abatzoglou, 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the dataset home page: MACAv2-METDATA: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net The 20 included GCMs are: bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 CC365, HadGEM2-ES365, inmcm4,IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC ESM CHEM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. This dataset supports the USGS National Climate Change Viewer. The statistically downscaled dataset is: MACAv2-METDATA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (Abatzoglou & Brown, 2012, bias corrected by METDATA, Abatzoglou, 2013) Users interested in the downscaled temperature and precipitation files are referred to the dataset home page: MACAv2-METDATA: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net The 20 included GCMs are: bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2 CC365, HadGEM2-ES365, inmcm4,IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC ESM CHEM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M