Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the monthly, seasonal and annual ensembles of downscaled total precipitation (mm/day) are available for the historical time period, 1951-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the conterminous United States that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) [Taylor et al. 2012] and across the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [Meinshausen et al. 2011] developed for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). The dataset includes downscaled projections from 33 models, as well as ensemble statistics calculated for each RCP from all model runs available. The purpose of these datasets is to provide a set of high resolution, bias-corrected climate change projections that can be used to evaluate climate change impacts on processes that are sensitive to finer-scale climate gradients and the effects of local topography on climate conditions. Each of the climate projections includes monthly averaged maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2005 (Retrospective Run) and from 2006 to 2099 (Prospective Run).

LOCA is a statistical downscaling technique that uses past history to add improved fine-scale detail to global climate models. We have used LOCA to downscale 32 global climate models from the CMIP5 archive at a 1/16th degree spatial resolution, covering North America from central Mexico through Southern Canada. The historical period is 1950-2005, and there are two future scenarios available: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over the period 2006-2100 (although some models stop in 2099). The variables currently available are daily minimum and maximum temperature, and daily precipitation. For more information visit: http://loca.ucsd.edu/

Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) CMIP6 statistically downscaled agroclimatic indices are an updated version of the CMIP5 agroclimatic indices dataset making use of the new set of downscaled scenarios (Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios–Univariate method from CMIP6 (CanDCS-U6)) created by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC). To address the needs of different user groups in Canada, 49 indices, including agroclimatic indices, were proposed by the Canadian adaptation community through a series of consultations. Please see the definition list for the equations of each index. The range of impact-relevant climate indices available for download includes, indices representing counts of the number of days when temperature or precipitation exceeds (or is below) a threshold value; the episode length when a particular weather/climate condition occurs; and indices that accumulate temperature departures above or below a fixed threshold. The statistically downscaled climate indices are available for historical simulations (1951-2014) and three new emissions scenarios called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs), SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (2015-2100), at a 10 x 10 km degree grid resolution. Note: projected future changes by statistically downscaled products are not necessarily more credible than those by the underlying climate model outputs. In many cases, especially for absolute threshold-based indices, projections based on downscaled data have a smaller spread because of the removal of model biases. However, this is not the case for all indices. Downscaling from GCM resolution to the fine resolution needed for impact assessment increases the level of spatial detail and temporal variability to better match observations. Since these adjustments are GCM dependent, the resulting indices could have a wider spread when computed from downscaled data as compared to those directly computed from GCM output. In the latter case, it is not the downscaling procedure that makes future projection more uncertain; rather, it is indicative of higher variability associated with a finer spatial scale. Individual model datasets and all related derived products are subject to the terms of use (https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6/TermsOfUse/TermsOfUse6-1.html) of the source organization.

Global climate models (GCMs) are computationally intensive, physics-based research tools used to simulate the climate system. GCM can also be useful in applied research contexts with the use of statistical downscaling techniques. This collection of statistically downscaled climate projections includes 7 sets of SD-processed CMIP5 projections of daily high temperature, daily low temperature, and daily total precipitation across the Edwards Aquifer Region (EAR) in south central Texas. These sets of projections were created using four GCMs from the CMIP5 archive (CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-CC, inmcm4, MRI-ESM1), each of which simulated 21st century climate responses for multiple future emissions scenarios. The CMIP5 GCMs simulated response under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The equi-distant quantile mapping method (EDQM) was used for statistical downscaling with the Daymet v. 4 as the observational data used for training. The resulting SD-processed projections are on a 1 km by 1 km grid covering the EAR in south central Texas (100.75 degress E to 97.5 degrees E, 28.75 degrees N to 30.50 degrees N). Both historical baseline files (1980-2005) and future projections (2006-2100) are provided. Applied researchers may explore aspects of potential changes in the EAR using these high resolution projections, including as inputs to additional modelling (e.g. hydrology modeling, crop modeling, etc.). This collection should not be considered comprehensive in spanning the entire scope of SD processed climate projections for the EAR. These climate projection data products are provided as is without any warranty and no agreement to support subsequent projects based on this dataset, beyond providing the data to public domain.

Global climate models (GCMs) are computationally intensive, physics-based research tools used to simulate the climate system. GCM can also be useful in applied research contexts with the use of statistical downscaling techniques. This collection of statistically downscaled climate projections includes 12 sets of SD-processed CMIP6 projections of daily high temperature, daily low temperature, and daily total precipitation across the Edwards Aquifer Region (EAR) in south central Texas. These sets of projections were created using six GCMs from the CMIP6 archive (EC-Earth3, INM-CM-4-8, INM-CM-5-0, KACE-1-0-G, KIOST-ESM, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), each of which simulated 21st century climate responses for multiple future emissions scenarios. The CMIP6 GCMs simulated response under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The equi-distant quantile mapping method (EDQM) was used for statistical downscaling with the Daymet v. 4 as the observational data used for training. The resulting SD-processed projections are on a 1 km by 1 km grid covering the EAR in south central Texas (100.75 degress E to 97.5 degrees E, 28.75 degrees N to 30.50 degrees N). Both historical baseline files (1980-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) are provided. Applied researchers may explore aspects of potential changes in the EAR using these high resolution projections, including as inputs to additional modelling (e.g. hydrology modeling, crop modeling, etc.). This collection should not be considered comprehensive in spanning the entire scope of SD processed climate projections for the EAR. These climate projection data products are provided as is without any warranty and no agreement to support subsequent projects based on this dataset, beyond providing the data to public domain.

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in total precipitation are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily precipitation (mm/day) from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded precipitation dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target. Projected relative change in total precipitation is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005 and expressed as a percentage (%). Seasonal and annual averages of projected precipitation change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of projected precipitation change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled total precipitation (%) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided. Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

Dynamically downscaled high-resolution (~10 km spatial resolution) climate change projection data for Queensland. Downscaling was completed using CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) for two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from 11 CMIP5 global coarse resolution models for period 1980-2099. The Queensland Future Climate Dashboard (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/qld-future-climate/ ) provides easy access to climate projection for Queensland. The dashboard allows users to explore, visualize and download the latest high-resolution climate modelling data for specific regions, catchments, disaster areas, local government areas and grid squares. Underlying data is provided via TERN for easy access for each of 11 downscaled models. The Queensland Future Climate Dataset provides high resolution data for over 30 different metrics grouped in six climate themes: (i) Mean Climate; (ii) Heatwaves; (iii) Extreme Temperature Indices; (iv) Extreme Precipitation Indices; (v) Droughts; and (vi) Floods. In addition selected variables at daily and monthly intervals are also available.

Global climate models (GCMs) are computationally intensive, physics-based research tools used to simulate the climate system. GCM can also be useful in applied research contexts with the use of statistical downscaling techniques. This collection of statistically downscaled climate projections includes 7 sets of SD-processed CMIP5 projections and 12 sets of SD-processed CMIP6 projections of daily high temperature, daily low temperature, and daily total precipitation across the Edwards Aquifer Region (EAR) in south central Texas. These sets of projections were created using four GCMs from the CMIP5 archive (CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-CC, inmcm4, MRI-ESM1) and six GCMs from the CMIP6 archive (EC-Earth3, INM-CM-4-8, INM-CM-5-0, KACE-1-0-G, KIOST-ESM, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR), each of which simulated 21st century climate responses for multiple future emissions scenarios. The CMIP5 GCMs simulated response under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP6 GCMs simulated response under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The equi-distant quantile mapping method (EDQM) was used for statistical downscaling with the Daymet v. 4 as the observational data used for training. The resulting SD-processed projections are on a 1 km by 1 km grid covering the EAR in south central Texas (100.75 degress E to 97.5 degrees E, 28.75 degrees N to 30.50 degrees N). Both historical baseline files (1980-2005 for CMIP5 and 1980-2014 for CMIP6) and future projections (2006-2100 for CMIP5 and 2015-2100 for CMIP6) are provided. Applied researchers may explore aspects of potential changes in the EAR using these high resolution projections, including as inputs to additional modelling (e.g. hydrology modeling, crop modeling, etc.). This collection should not be considered comprehensive in spanning the entire scope of SD processed climate projections for the EAR. These climate projection data products are provided as is without any warranty and no agreement to support subsequent projects based on this dataset, beyond providing the data to public domain.

Supplement that indicates where to find the source data sets on the EPA system. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Bowden, J., K.D. Talgo, T. Spero , and C. Nolte. Assessing the Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling Using the Standardized Precipitation Index. ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY. Hindawi Publishing Corporation, New York, NY, USA, 2016(8432064): 14 pages, (2016).