This dataset contains raster image files in support of the conclusions published in "Water use demand in Mediterranean California under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use " in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including the historical (1992-2011) and projected periods (2012-2062) across 40 Monte Carlo simulations.We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992-2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios from 2012-2062. These scenario simulations include a 1) business-as-usual (BAU), 2) low agriculture (LA), 3) high agriculture (HA), 4) low urban (LU), 5) high urban (HU), 6) lowest of the low (LL), and 7) highest of the high (HH) anthropogenic use scenarios.

This dataset contains csv files in support of the conclusions published in "Water use demand in Mediterranean California under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use " in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including the historical (1992-2011) and projected periods (2012-2062) across 40 Monte Carlo simulations.We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992-2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios from 2012-2062. These scenario simulations include a 1) business-as-usual (BAU), 2) low agriculture (LA), 3) high agriculture (HU), 4) low urban (LU), 5) high urban (HU), 6) lowest of the low (LL), and 7) highest of the high (HH) anthropogenic use scenarios.

This dataset contains raster image files in support of the conclusions published in "Water use demand in Mediterranean California under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use " in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including the historical (1992-2011) and projected periods (2012-2062) across 40 Monte Carlo simulations.We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992-2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios from 2012-2062. These scenario simulations include a 1) business-as-usual (BAU), 2) low agriculture (LA), 3) high agriculture (HA), 4) low urban (LU), 5) high urban (HU), 6) lowest of the low (LL), and 7) highest of the high (HH) anthropogenic use scenarios.

This dataset contains csv files in support of the conclusions published in "Water use demand in Mediterranean California under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use " in the journal PLOS One. We used the USGS's LUCAS model to examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand, including the historical (1992-2011) and projected periods (2012-2062) across 40 Monte Carlo simulations.We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992-2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios from 2012-2062. These scenario simulations include a 1) business-as-usual (BAU), 2) low agriculture (LA), 3) high agriculture (HU), 4) low urban (LU), 5) high urban (HU), 6) lowest of the low (LL), and 7) highest of the high (HH) anthropogenic use scenarios.

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This information is published in the California Water Plan (Water Plan), which is updated every five years. Water Plan Updates 2005, 2009, 2013, 2018 and 2023 have progressively developed a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for assessing the impacts of climate change on California water resources and infrastructure, as well as the adaptation strategies needed and available to improve regional water resilience. Update 2023 brought significant improvements to input data and process in the model as described in the model documentation provided in the resources. The current WEAP model is called the WEAP-CVPA model as it covers the Central Valley of California at the planning area scale. The model was run on WEAP version 2021.0.2.2 but is compatible with newer versions of WEAP based on limited testing. Included in this dataset is: * The model itself with input files provided as a zip file * A link to SEI’s website where the software to run and view the model can be downloaded * The documentation for the model that was released as part of the California Water Plan Update 2023 * 4 CSVs with the post processed data from the study that were used to create the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer, separated by summary vs detailed response surface as well as by planning area metrics vs points of interest metrics * A link to the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer where the post processed results and response surfaces available at the planning area level * The raw exports from the model of the level 2070 that were post processed to create the data that informed the Water Plan Update 2023 * Spatial Boundaries for Water Plan Planning Areas which were used as the basis for spatial areas in the WEAP model

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This information is published in the California Water Plan (Water Plan), which is updated every five years. Water Plan Updates 2005, 2009, 2013, 2018 and 2023 have progressively developed a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for assessing the impacts of climate change on California water resources and infrastructure, as well as the adaptation strategies needed and available to improve regional water resilience. Update 2023 brought significant improvements to input data and process in the model as described in the model documentation provided in the resources. The current WEAP model is called the WEAP-CVPA model as it covers the Central Valley of California at the planning area scale. The model was run on WEAP version 2021.0.2.2 but is compatible with newer versions of WEAP based on limited testing. Included in this dataset is: * The model itself with input files provided as a zip file * A link to SEI’s website where the software to run and view the model can be downloaded * The documentation for the model that was released as part of the California Water Plan Update 2023 * 4 CSVs with the post processed data from the study that were used to create the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer, separated by summary vs detailed response surface as well as by planning area metrics vs points of interest metrics * A link to the Future Scenarios Interactive Data Explorer where the post processed results and response surfaces available at the planning area level * The raw exports from the model of the level 2070 that were post processed to create the data that informed the Water Plan Update 2023 * Spatial Boundaries for Water Plan Planning Areas which were used as the basis for spatial areas in the WEAP model

LUCAS-W is a scenario-based simulation model of coupled land use change and associated water demand for California's Central Coast region from 2001-2061. The model is a verison of the LUCAS model, which uses the SyncroSim software framework (Software documentation available at http://doc.syncrosim.com/index.php?title=Reference_Guide), that contains a new coupling with statistical software R (https://www.r-project.org/) to enable dynamic feedbacks between land-use change, resulting water demand, and water availability. The model was parameterized with land-use change and water use empirically estimated from county-scale historic data, as well as results from dozens of local agencies’ groundwater modeling efforts. It was used to assess a set of five stakeholder-driven scenarios that explored alternative development pathways assuming the continuation of historic land use change rates but with different intensities of water supply and land-use management. Water management strategies were (1) water demand limits, and (2) water supply enhancement, while land use management strategies were (3) urban sprawl limits on recharge areas and prime farmland, and (4) preservation of priority habitat areas. By scaling up studies of local-scale diverse, heterogeneous aquifers and management approaches to a regional level, the model can enable a projection of spatial changes due to shifts in LULC and water management including leakage from land and water use regulated areas into unregulated areas, information that is key to future agency planning for sustainability. The resulting land-use projections provide a range of development projections under different sets of management assumptions: patterns of development that do not stabilize “business-as-usual” (WL), assume that water demand stabilizes at a range of possible sustainable water supply levels (MM, WH), and that assume a relatively unregulated (LL) or tightly compact (LH) pattern of future development. See Van Schmidt et al. (2022) Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101056) for more details.

LUCAS-W is a scenario-based simulation model of coupled land use change and associated water demand for California's Central Coast region from 2001-2061. The model is a verison of the LUCAS model, which uses the SyncroSim software framework (Software documentation available at http://doc.syncrosim.com/index.php?title=Reference_Guide), that contains a new coupling with statistical software R (https://www.r-project.org/) to enable dynamic feedbacks between land-use change, resulting water demand, and water availability. The model was parameterized with land-use change and water use empirically estimated from county-scale historic data, as well as results from dozens of local agencies’ groundwater modeling efforts. It was used to assess a set of five stakeholder-driven scenarios that explored alternative development pathways assuming the continuation of historic land use change rates but with different intensities of water supply and land-use management. Water management strategies were (1) water demand limits, and (2) water supply enhancement, while land use management strategies were (3) urban sprawl limits on recharge areas and prime farmland, and (4) preservation of priority habitat areas. By scaling up studies of local-scale diverse, heterogeneous aquifers and management approaches to a regional level, the model can enable a projection of spatial changes due to shifts in LULC and water management including leakage from land and water use regulated areas into unregulated areas, information that is key to future agency planning for sustainability. The resulting land-use projections provide a range of development projections under different sets of management assumptions: patterns of development that do not stabilize “business-as-usual” (WL), assume that water demand stabilizes at a range of possible sustainable water supply levels (MM, WH), and that assume a relatively unregulated (LL) or tightly compact (LH) pattern of future development. See Van Schmidt et al. (2022) Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101056) for more details.

Tabular data output from a series of groundwater modeling simulations for five counties along the Central Coast of California, USA. We used a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows that integrates climate, land-use change, human water use, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand at 270-m resolution from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future using output from the Basin Characterization Model, a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows to groundwater from excess irrigation. For each combination of the two climate and two land-use change scenarios, we ran 50 Monte Carlo realizations of the model. Results presented here have been aggregated from the individual cell level and summarized by county.

Tabular data output from a series of groundwater modeling simulations for five counties along the Central Coast of California, USA. We used a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows that integrates climate, land-use change, human water use, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand at 270-m resolution from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future using output from the Basin Characterization Model, a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows to groundwater from excess irrigation. For each combination of the two climate and two land-use change scenarios, we ran 50 Monte Carlo realizations of the model. Results presented here have been aggregated from the individual cell level and summarized by county.