Global climate change is leading to large-scale shifts in species’ range limits. For example, rising winter temperatures are shifting the abundance and distributions of tropical, cold sensitive plant species towards higher latitudes. Coastal wetlands provide a prime example of such shifts, with tropical mangrove forests expanding into temperate salt marshes as winter warming alleviates past geographic limits set by cold intolerance. These rapid changes are dynamic and challenging to monitor, and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of mangrove expansion near poleward range limits. Here, we synthesized existing datasets and expert knowledge to assess the current (i.e., 2021) distribution of mangroves near dynamic range limits in eastern North America. Each grid cell has a resolution of 0.125 degrees, or approximately 14 x 16 km, within which the presence or absence of mangrove has been independently determined using existing datasets and expert knowledge.

Global climate change is leading to large-scale shifts in species’ range limits. For example, rising winter temperatures are shifting the abundance and distributions of tropical, cold sensitive plant species towards higher latitudes. Coastal wetlands provide a prime example of such shifts, with tropical mangrove forests expanding into temperate salt marshes as winter warming alleviates past geographic limits set by cold intolerance. These rapid changes are dynamic and challenging to monitor, and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of mangrove expansion near poleward range limits. Here, we synthesized existing datasets and expert knowledge to assess the current (i.e., 2021) distribution of mangroves near dynamic range limits in eastern North America. Each grid cell has a resolution of 0.125 degrees, or approximately 14 x 16 km, within which the presence or absence of mangrove has been independently determined using existing datasets and expert knowledge.

In coastal wetlands, one of the most striking examples of climate change is the poleward range expansion of mangrove forests in response to warming winters. In North America, the Cedar Key region has often been considered the range limit for mangroves along the western coast of Florida (USA). However, within the past several decades, robust stands of Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle have been observed in the Apalachicola Bay region, which is 200 km northwest of Cedar Key. This dataset characterizes the distribution and structure of the mangroves in the Apalachicola Bay area of Florida identified via extensive ground surveys and photointerpretation of aerial imagery from 2018 to 2019.

In coastal wetlands, one of the most striking examples of climate change is the poleward range expansion of mangrove forests in response to warming winters. In North America, the Cedar Key region has often been considered the range limit for mangroves along the western coast of Florida (USA). However, within the past several decades, robust stands of Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle have been observed in the Apalachicola Bay region, which is 200 km northwest of Cedar Key. This dataset characterizes the distribution and structure of the mangroves in the Apalachicola Bay area of Florida identified via extensive ground surveys and photointerpretation of aerial imagery from 2018 to 2019.

This shapefile is the approximate location of mangroves within the boundary of Ten Thousand Islands NWR in 2014.

This shapefile is the approximate location of mangroves within the boundary of Ten Thousand Islands NWR in 2014.

This shapefile is the approximate location of mangroves within the boundary of Ten Thousand Islands NWR in 2005.

We evaluated changes in mangrove distribution and ecosystem properties in the southeastern United States under climate change using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981-2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071-2100 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. We quantified potential mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under recent climatic conditions and under the two alternative future climate scenarios.

This shapefile compares the approximate location of mangroves within the boundary of Ten Thousand Islands NWR in 2005 to their location in 2014.

This shapefile compares the approximate location of mangroves within the boundary of Ten Thousand Islands NWR in 2005 to their location in 2014.