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Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models from Effective and Pending Flood Insurance Studies compared to the July 2023 Flood in Vermont
Flood Insurance Studies (FISs) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provide 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) streamflows and water-surface elevations for many stream reaches that were affected by the July 2023 flood in Vermont. After a flood, it is useful to compare observed streamflows and water-surface elevations to flood flow-frequency and water-surface elevations published in a FIS report (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1980–2014). Theoretically, the AEP for the peak water-surface elevation and the AEP for the peak streamflow from the same event at the same location should be the same. Reaches for which the AEPs do not align show where existing FISs could be updated with new hydrologic data and hydraulic models. Flood streamflows for 10-, 2-, 1- and 0.2-percent frequencies using annual peak-flow data through water year 2023 were compared to peak streamflows in FEMA FIS reports and pending (2024) FIS studies. The proposed peak streamflows from pending FIS studies are based on statistical analyses of annual peak flow data prior to water year 2023. Although flood-frequency estimates were updated for 80 streamgages after the July 2023 flood, only a fraction of the streamgages have detailed hydrologic analysis in FIS reports (or pending FIS reports) and can be used in the streamflow comparison. Peak-water surface elevations from the July 2023 flood were also documented at surveyed high-water marks (HWMs) along selected river reaches impacted by the July 2023 flood in Vermont. Reaches that had HWMs, a streamgage on the same river with a drainage area within fifty percent of the reach drainage area, and an effective FIS were selected for evaluation. Streamflows and HWMs from the July flood event are presented alongside statistical streamflows and elevations for the 10- to 0.2-percent AEPs from the applicable FIS.
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USGS-derived 1-percent Annual Exceedance Probability Flood-Flow Estimates at Flood Insurance Study Locations Across Pennsylvania
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One-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood-flow estimates were computed at flood insurance study (FIS) locations across Pennsylvania using methods identified in Scientific Investigation Report (SIR) 2019-5094. Following guidance outlined in SIR 2016-5149, valid statistical reaches (VSRs) were identified for streamgages, which were used to assist with the determination of the applicable method used to compute a USGS-derived 1-percent AEP flood-flow estimate at an FIS location. Methods included: weighting, weighting and transferring, and regression equations. The USGS-derived 1-percent AEP flood-flow estimates were then compared to 1-percent AEP flood-flow estimates published in FIS's and furnished by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Model Archive for Regression Equations to Estimate Flood Discharges in Vermont
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These data include flood-frequency data for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities (pfqprocessed.zip) and the basin characteristics (siteinfoVT.txt) for 156 streamgages in Vermont and adjacent areas in surrounding states. These data were used as input to the regression model developed for estimating the magnitude of floods at the selected annual exceedance probabilities on ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont. The model code is provided in R script language (R Core Team, 2024) and utilized the generalized-least-squares regression tools in the WREG package (Farmer, 2021) to develop the regression equations to estimated flood discharge in Vermont. The model output (VT_Regression_Equations.pdf) provides code and the regression equations. Farmer, W.H., 2021, WREG—Weighted least squares regression for streamflow frequency statistics (ver. 3.0): U.S. Geological Survey software release, accessed January 31, 2025, at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9ZCGLI1. R Core Team, 2024, R: A language and environment for statistical computing version 4.4.0: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, accessed July 18, 2024 at, https://www.R-project.org.
Worksheet for computing annual exceedance probability flood discharges and prediction intervals at stream sites in Connecticut
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The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Connecticut Department of Transportation, completed a study to improve flood-frequency estimates in Connecticut. This companion data release is a Microsoft Excel workbook for: (1) computing flood discharges for the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities from peak-flow regression equations, and (2) computing additional prediction intervals, not available through the USGS StreamStats web application. The current StreamStats application (version 4) only computes the 90-percent prediction interval for stream sites in Connecticut. The Excel workbook can be used to compute the 70-, 80-, 90-, 95-, and 99-percent prediction intervals. The prediction interval provides upper and lower limits of the estimated flood discharge with a certain probability, or level of confidence in the accuracy of the estimate. The standard error of prediction for the Connecticut peak-flow regression equations ranged from 26.3 to 45.0 percent (Ahearn and Hodgkins, 2020). The Excel workbook consists of four worksheets. The worksheets provide an overview of how the application works; input and output tables of the explanatory variables and flood discharges, and graphical display of the results; and the computational formulas used to estimate the flood discharges and prediction intervals.
환경부 한강홍수통제소 초단기 침수예측 행정구역별 격자 단계 기준표 고정자료
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AI 홍수예보 시스템의 초단기 침수 예측에서 격자 단위 위험 수준을 평가하기 위한 기준표(주의, 경계, 심각)를 제공하는 데이터 항목으로, 격자별 행정구역을 매칭하고 그에 따른 주의, 경계, 심각 단계의 기준을 정의한다. 이를 통해 격자 단위 침수 위험을 체계적으로 산정하고 제공하며, 단기 홍수 대응, 침수 경보 발령, 자원 배분, 홍수 위험 관리 등 다양한 의사결정과 관리 업무에 활용될 수 있다. 본 자료는 업로드 용량 제한으로 샘플 자료 100개만 제공하며 전체 자료 요청은 담당에게 문의. 담당자: 기후에너지환경부 한강홍수통제소 이민호 연구사 02-590-9976