1. Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and other Pacific salmon are threatened by unsustainable levels of harvest, genetic introgression from hatchery stocks and degradation or loss of freshwater habitat. Projected climate change is expected to further stress salmon through increases in stream temperatures and altered stream flows. 2. We demonstrate a spatially explicit method for assessing salmon vulnerability to projected climatic changes (scenario for the years 20302059), applied here to steelhead salmon across the entire Pacific Northwest (PNW). We considered steelhead exposure to increased temperatures and more extreme high and low flows during four of their primary freshwater life stages: adult migration, spawning, incubation and rearing. Steelhead sensitivity to climate change was estimated on the basis of their regulatory status and the condition of their habitat. We assessed combinations of exposure and sensitivity to suggest actions that may be most effective for reducing steelhead vulnerability to climate change. 3. Our relative ranking of locations suggested that steelhead exposure to increases in temperature will be most widespread in the southern Pacific Northwest, whereas exposure to substantial flow changes will be most widespread in the interior and northern Pacific Northwest. There were few locations where we projected that steelhead had both relatively low exposure and sensitivity to climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications. There are few areas where habitat protection alone is likely to be sufficient to conserve steelhead under the scenario of climate change considered here. Instead, our results suggest the need for coordinated, landscape-scale actions that both increase salmon resilience and ameliorate climate change impacts, such as restoring connectivity of floodplains and high-elevation habitats. Salmon gridded data for PNW.

This work involves 1) synthesizing information from the literature and 2) modeling impacts of climate change on specific aspects of salmon life history and viability. Annual literature reviews summarize information from peer-reviewed journals and major technical reports relevant to managing Pacific salmon, with an emphasis on information that is most relevant for salmon in the Pacific Northwest and the Columbia River Basin. Original research involves modeling exploration of changes in climate on spawner to smolt productivity, juvenile survival, upstream migration survival and timing, prespawn mortality, and whole life cycle population viability. Collection of data collected by numerous other sources (e.g., tribes, states) managed and made public by NWFSC.

The dataset was built using the U.S. National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2, 1:100,000 scale) stream network and value-added attributes (VAA), the U.S. National Elevation Dataset 10-meter digital elevation model, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Water Model recurrence interval flows, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) level 4-scale Hydrological Unit Code boundaries, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Level III ecoregion boundaries. Reaches in this dataset vary in length up to 200 meters. Reaches with unknown flow direction were removed from the original stream network.

This layer is intended to represent the geographic extent of NOAA Fisheries’ Juvenile Salmon and Ocean Ecosystem Survey stations. The Juvenile Salmon and Ocean Ecosystem Survey (JSOES) started in 1998 and is led by NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center. This survey is the longest running salmon survey on the U.S. West Coast. The primary goal of our work is to develop a mechanistic understanding of how trophic dynamics and conditions in the ocean and Columbia River plume affect survival of juvenile salmonids. JSOES collects juvenile salmon and other open-ocean animals which allows identification of shifts in abundance, distribution, and growth/condition of migrating juvenile salmon. JSOES has demonstrated correlations between ocean conditions and the distribution, abundance, and survival of juvenile Columbia River salmon in the Northern California Current nearshore ecosystem to provide context for efforts by states, tribes, and others to restore and enhance salmon production. The samples from this survey improve salmon forecasts in a quantitative rather than qualitative manner, and decouple the effects of mitigation efforts in the freshwater environment from the effects of a changing ocean environment. The survey is conducted two times a year (late May and late June) for roughly ten days each. This study utilizes a surface trawl. A surface trawl collects juvenile salmon and other open-ocean animals during sampling.

The following waterways, bottom and water of the waterways and adjacent riparian zones: The Sacramento River from Keswick Dam, Shasta County (River Mile 302) to Chipps Island (River Mile 0) at the westward margin of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, all waters from Chipps Island westward to Carquinez Bridge, including Honker Bay, Grizzly Bay, Suisun Bay, and Carquinez Strait, all waters of San Pablo Bay westward of the Carquinez Bridge, and all waters of San Francisco Bay (north of the San Francisco/Oakland Bay Bridge) from San Pablo Bay to the Golden Gate Bridge.Adjacent riparian zones are those areas above a streambank that provide cover and shade to the nearshore aquatic areas. This designation does not include any estuarine sloughs.

The Fisheries Ecology Division of NOAA’s SWFSC conducted annual surveys of salmon and their ocean habitat in the coastal waters of northern California and southern Oregon from 1998-2016. We used a surface trawl to collect juvenile and subadult salmonids, including several ESA-listed populations of Chinook and coho salmon and steelhead. We also quantified other coastal pelagic fish and invertebrates that co-occur with salmon, and we measured spatially matched biological and physical oceanographic variables. Juvenile salmon were frozen at sea and transported back to shore for further analysis. Scales, DNA, otoliths, stomach contents, blood plasma, and implanted tags (if present) were retained. The majority of older salmon and bycatch species were released alive at sea. Additional data recorded during our survey included seabird counts, plankton samples, echosounder readings, and CTD profiles of temperature, salinity, chlorophyll, transmissivity, and PAR.

FY20 will mark the 23nd year of sampling, making the Juvenile Salmon and Ocean Ecosystem Survey (JSOES) the longest running salmon survey on the west coast. JSOES has clearly demonstrated correlations between ocean conditions and the distribution, abundance, and survival of juvenile Columbia River (CR) salmon in the Northern California Current (NCC) nearshore ecosystem. For example, our ocean indicators provide managers from the federal and state governments, tribes, and other agencies/groups the ability to forecast adult returns one to two years in advance for coho and spring/summer Chinook salmon. We continue to show the importance of evaluating ocean conditions to support management decisions and to provide context for efforts by the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NWPCC) and BPA to restore and enhance salmon production. The primary goal of our work is to develop a mechanistic understanding of how trophic dynamics and conditions in the ocean and CR plume affect survival of juvenile salmonids. This knowledge will allow us to improve forecasts in a quantitative rather than qualitative manner, and decouple the effects of mitigation efforts in the freshwater environment from the effects of a changing ocean environment. These improved forecasts will lead to well-informed recommendations for an ecosystem approach to management strategies based on the full suite of river, plume, and ocean environments. Nekton and juvenile salmon collections from surface trawl.

The goal of the tidal-fluvial estuary study is to determine the estuary's contribution to the spatial structure and life history diversity of Columbia River salmon stocks and the implications for estuary restoration. The study targets salmon use of tidal-fresh habitats in the estuary from Rkm 75 to Bonneville Dam, and addresses four primary objectives: 1. Characterize the temporal and spatial distribution of Chinook salmon genetic stock groups throughout the estuary (March 2010 - March 2012). 2. Determine stock-specific habitat use, life histories, and performance of juvenile salmon in key habitat complexes to fill data gaps in the tidal fluvial reaches of the estuary (2012-2016). 3. Monitor juvenile salmon life histories and their contributions to adult returns in selected estuary tributaries, including tributary examples where tidal habitats have been restored (2012-2018). 4. Evaluate estuary restoration needs for recovery of all salmon ESUs and account for projected effects of climate change through application of a salmon life-cycle model (2011-1015). The study, funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, involves a large team of researchers organized by NOAA Fisheries, including researchers from the Oregon Health and Sciences University, University of Washington, and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. The study addresses critical uncertainties identified in the research, monitoring, and evaluation (RME) program for the Federal Columbia River Estuary Program (FCREP). The Estuary Program is intended to conserve and restore the estuary ecosystem to improve the performance of listed salmonid populations. Products from the tidal-fluvial study will include: 1. Descriptions of stock-specific temporal and spatial distributions of Chinook salmon throughout the estuary. 2. Estimates of variations in Chinook salmon stock composition and stock-specific growth, food habits, consumption rates, and bioenergetic efficiencies within selected tidal-fluvial habitats. 3. Estimated contributions of estuarine life histories among returning adult Chinook salmon from selected populations throughout the Columbia River Basin. 4. A hydrological model quantifying the dynamics of rearing habitat opportunities for juvenile salmon at estuary reach and habitat scales. 5. Improved life-cycle models to account for the estuarine life histories of juvenile salmon and estimating the potential effectiveness of estuary restoration actions on the recovery and viability of selected salmon stocks. These results will directly address information needs to support estuary actions specified in the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) Biological Opinion for the Columbia River. The tidal-fluvial estuary study is part of an ongoing estuary research program initiated in 2002. The current study expands upon earlier research conducted in the lower 100 km of the estuary from 2002 to 2008. Although all objectives will be addressed by 2018 to correspond with a review of progress implementing the FCRPS Biological Opinion, some sampling activities may extend beyond this date to allow brood-year reconstruction of estuary contributions to adult returns in selected streams (Objective 3). Monthly fish species composition, abundance, and length:weight; Chinook salmon life history and genetic stock ID.

This file represents salmonid freshwater and estuarine Essential Fish Habitat (EFH) in the western United States. Congress, through the Magnuson-Stevens Act, defined EFH as "those waters and substrate necessary to fish for spawning, breeding, feeding, or growth to maturity." This dataset follows the federal codification of delineating EFH using 4th field Hydrologic Units. It spatially depicts designated EFH for Federally-managed Pacific salmon within freshwater and estuarine regions of California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. Areas above identified certain impassible dams are not designated EFH, and these have been removed from the 4th field Hydrologic Units. Only areas defined as EFH are present in this dataset. Each Hydrologic Unit polygon has been coded to indicate for which species of salmon (Chinook salmon, coho and/or pink) it represents EFH.

This project extends and advances existing ocean distribution and size models for Chinook Salmon, a major prey of Southern Resident Killer Whales (SRKW) and target of important fisheries, to provide ocean distribution estimates for multiple run-types (fall, summer, and spring Chinook) arising from rivers from California to Alaska by season and under variable oceanic conditions. It leverages very large tag-recapture databases that have been developed for Chinook Salmon over the past 50 years – hundreds of millions of fish tagged and millions recovered – and links these recoveries to a range of fisheries in which Chinook are targeted or captured as bycatch. It integrates data coast-wide, from Alaska to California, and over more than 30 years (1978-2015), to provide a first synthetic, quantitative description of Chinook distribution that can be used to understand the total Chinook prey field available to SRKW, fishers, and other predators in different seasons and under alternate ocean states. In addition, this projects examines long-term trends in Chinook salmon size and their biological implications. Chinook populations have shown pronounced trends toward smaller and younger fish returning to spawn, and these trends have accelerated in the last 15 years. This erosion of the age-size structure and life-history diversity may negatively affect population productivity via reductions in reproductive potential, and may compromise the long-term viability of populations and jeopardize the sustainability of Chinook salmon fisheries. Consequently, long-term shifts in life-history characteristics, which are likely caused by changing ecological conditions in the ocean, might need to be accounted for when estimating reference points for fishery management. This work supports ongoing efforts to recover SRKW populations, informs the SRKW critical habitat designation process and recovery plans, feeds into the PFMC SRKW ad hoc work group, and is directly in line with the NMFS Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management Road Map and Policy as well as the National Climate Science Strategy.