Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make maintenance-related decisions, thus effectively streamlining operational and mission level activities. Experimentation on testbeds representative of critical systems is very useful for the maturation of prognostics technology; precise emulation of actual fault conditions on such a testbed further validates these technologies. In this paper we present the development of a pneumatic valve testbed, initial experimental results and progress towards the maturation and validation of component-level prognostic methods in the context of cryogenic refueling operations. The pneumatic valve testbed allows for the injection of time-varying leaks with specified damage progression profiles in order to emulate common valve faults. The pneumatic valve testbed also contains a battery used to power some pneumatic components, enabling the study of the effects of battery degradation on the operation of the valves.

Pneumatic-actuated valves are critical components in many applications, including cryogenic propellant loading for space operations. For these components, failures need to be predicted so that components can be repaired to ensure mission success, i.e., health monitoring and fault prognostics is required. In order to develop, test, mature, and deploy valve prognostics algorithms, we have developed a testbed for pneumatic valves used in cryogenic service for propellant loading operations, in which we can inject controlled damage pro files and observe its effects on valve operation. In this paper, we focus on the prognostics of a continuously-controlled pneumatic valve. We describe the construction of the testbed, the fault injection mechanisms, and the model-based valve prognostics algorithms. Experimental results from the testbed demonstrate successful prediction of valve failure.

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub- system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such infor- mation enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics method- ology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the ow of propellant, so failures may have a signi cant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle ltering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

The chapter describes the application of prognostic techniques to the domain of structural health and demonstrates the efficacy of the methods using fatigue data from a graphite-epoxy composite coupon. Prognostics denotes the in-situ assessment of the health of a component and the repeated estimation of remaining life, conditional on anticipated future usage. The methods shown here use a physics-based modeling approach whereby the behavior of the damaged components is encapsulated via mathematical equations that describe the characteristics of the components as it experiences increasing degrees of degradation. Mathematical rigorous techniques are used to extrapolate the remaining life to a failure threshold. Additionally, mathematical tools are used to calculate the uncertainty associated with making predictions. The information stemming from the predictions can be used in an operational context for go/no go decisions, quantify risk of ability to complete a (set of) mission or operation, and when to schedule maintenance.

As fault diagnosis and prognosis systems in aerospace applications become more capable, the ability to utilize information supplied by them becomes increasingly important. While certain types of vehicle health data can be effectively processed and acted upon by crew or support personnel, others, due to their complexity or time constraints, require either automated or semi-automated reasoning. Prognostics-enabled Decision Making (PDM) is an emerging research area that aims to integrate prognostic health information and knowledge about the future operating conditions into the process of selecting subsequent actions for the system. The newly developed PDM algorithms require suitable software and hardware platforms for testing under realistic fault scenarios. The paper describes the development of such a platform, based on the K11 planetary rover prototype. A variety of injectable fault modes are being investigated for electrical, mechanical, and power subsystems of the testbed, along with methods for data collection and processing. In addition to the hardware platform, a software simulator with matching capabilities has been developed. The simulator allows for prototyping and initial validation of the algorithms prior to their deployment on the K11. The simulator is also available to the PDM algorithms to assist with the reasoning process. A reference set of diagnostic, prognostic, and decision making algorithms is also described, followed by an overview of the current test scenarios and the results of their execution on the simulator.

Prognostics has taken center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system so that remedial measures may be taken in advance to avoid catastrophic events or unwanted downtimes. Validation of such predictions is an important but difficult proposition and a lack of appropriate evaluation methods renders prognostics meaningless. Evaluation methods currently used in the research community are not standardized and in many cases do not sufficiently assess key performance aspects expected out of a prognostics algorithm. In this paper we introduce several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics and show that they can effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Four prognostic algorithms, Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Polynomial Regression (PR), are compared. These algorithms vary in complexity and their ability to manage uncertainty around predicted estimates. Results show that the new metrics rank these algorithms in a different manner; depending on the requirements and constraints suitable metrics may be chosen. Beyond these results, this paper offers ideas about how metrics suitable to prognostics may be designed so that the evaluation procedure can be standardized.

Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL), the technology calls for fielded applications as it inches towards maturation. This requires a stringent performance evaluation so that the significance of the concept can be fully exploited. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few issues. Instead, the research community has used a variety of metrics based largely on convenience with respect to their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a common ground to compare different efforts. This paper surveys the metrics that are already used for prognostics in a variety of domains including medicine, nuclear, automotive, aerospace, and electronics. It also considers other domains that involve prediction-related tasks, such as weather and finance. Differences and similarities between these domains and health maintenancehave been analyzed to help understand what performance evaluation methods may or may not be borrowed. Further, these metrics have been categorized in several ways that may be useful in deciding upon a suitable subset for a specific application. Some important prognostic concepts have been defined using a notational framework that enables interpretation of different metrics coherently. Last, but not the least, a list of metrics has been suggested to assess critical aspects of RUL predictions before they are fielded in real applications.

Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition based maintenance (CBM) of critical systems. Along with developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL), the technology calls for fielded applications as it inches towards maturation. This requires a stringent performance evaluation so that the significance of the concept can be fully exploited. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few issues. Instead, the research community has used a variety of metrics based largely on convenience with respect to their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a common ground to compare different efforts. This paper surveys the metrics that are already used for prognostics in a variety of domains including medicine, nuclear, automotive, aerospace, and electronics. It also considers other domains that involve prediction-related tasks, such as weather and finance. Differences and similarities between these domains and health maintenance have been analyzed to help understand what performance evaluation methods may or may not be borrowed. Further, these metrics have been categorized in several ways that may be useful in deciding upon a suitable subset for a specific application. Some important prognostic concepts have been defined using a notational framework that enables interpretation of different metrics coherently. Last, but not the least, a list of metrics has been suggested to assess critical aspects of RUL predictions before they are fielded in real applications.

The field of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) has been undergoing rapid growth in recent years, with development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for diagnosing faults in system components and estimating fault progression tra- jectories. Research efforts on how to utilize prognostic health information (e.g. for extending the remaining useful life of the system, increasing safety, or maximizing operational ef- fectiveness) are mostly in their early stages, however. This process of using prognostic information to determine a sys- tem’s actions or its configuration is beginning to be referred to as Prognostic Decision Making (PDM). In this paper we, first, propose a formulation of the PDM problem with the at- tributes of the aerospace domain in mind, outline some of the key requirements on PDM methods, and explore techniques that can be used as a foundation of PDM development. The problem of Pareto set viability, i.e. satisfaction of perfor- mance goals set for objective functions, is discussed next, followed by ideas for possible solutions. The ideas, termed Dynamic Constraint Redesign (DCR), have roots in the fields of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Game Theory. Prototype PDM and DCR algorithms are also described and results of their testing are presented.