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Model application: modeling lake ice phenology in Minnesota, 1980-2018
Globally, lakes are losing ice cover, but our understanding of the rates and variability of change are biased towards few lakes with long-term records. Recent works have used remote sensing and predictive modeling to supplement the observational record, but these approaches produce large errors when estimating ice phenology for individual lakes. Our associated manuscript explores machine learning (ML) approaches for hindcasting ice phenology using daily weather drivers and lake ice records from 1980-2018 across 625 Minnesota lakes, covering 4359 lake-years of record. Most notably, this model application provides LSTM predictions of lake ice cover time series for 881 National Hydrography Dataset High Resolution (NHDHR) lakes in Minnesota from 1980 to 2018. Along with the best available predictions, we provide the trained model weights and feature scaling factors associated with the best model developed in PyTorch, an open-source deep learning library. This model application uses inputs available from a prior data release (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PPHJE2) which are retrieved via code and provides an earlier version of Minnesota lake ice phenology data published at https://doi.org/10.13020/110f-j487, whose original source is the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources State Climatology Office. For more in-depth information on the methodology and a detailed exploration of the model(s), please refer to Diaz et al. 2025 (in review). This work was initially funded by the Integrated Information and Dissemination Division, then by the Predictive Understanding of Multiscale Processes project - both under the USGS Water Mission Area (WMA) to explore the potential of machine learning-based lake ice prediction in addition to attention-based transformers, very large models, and explainable AI (XAI). This project made use of the USGS Tallgrass (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9XE7ROJ) High Performance Computing environment for GPU acceleration of large neural network models. The methods and results from this modeling effort are described in: Jeremy Diaz, Samantha Oliver, Simon Topp, et al. Predicting Minnesota lake ice phenology with deep learning, explainable methods, and a physically based benchmark, 1980-2018. ESS Open Archive . September 05, 2025. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175710698.87505589/v1. This is a USGS peer reviewed and approved preprint. This manuscript is also under review at Water Resources Research.
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Model drivers: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum observed lake depth, land-cover based estimates of surrounding canopy height and observed water temperature profiles (used here for validation). This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the future impact of climate change on lakes. This data set contains the following parameters: time, ShortWave, LongWave, AirTemp, RelHum, WindSpeed, Rain, Snow, which are defined below.
Temperature data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes
공공데이터포털
Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum observed lake depth, land-cover based estimates of surrounding canopy height and observed water temperature profiles (used here for validation). This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the future impact of climate change on lakes. This data set contains the following parameters: time, wtr_{z}, which are defined below.
Supporting datasets for paper "Estimating Future Temperature Maxima in Lakes across the United States using a Surrogate Modeling Approach"
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Model input and simulation output files. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Butcher, J., T. Zi, M. Schmidt, T. Johnson, D. Nover, and C. Clark. Critical Lake Temperature Response to Climate Change across the United States. PLoS ONE. Public Library of Science, San Francisco, CA, USA, 12(11): 1-16, (2017).
Data release: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes
공공데이터포털
Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum observed lake depth, land-cover based estimates of surrounding canopy height and observed water temperature profiles (used here for validation). This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the future impact of climate change on lakes. This data set contains the following parameters: Thermal metrics, Spatial data, Temperature data, Model drivers, Model configuration, which are defined below.
Spatial data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes
공공데이터포털
Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum observed lake depth, land-cover based estimates of surrounding canopy height and observed water temperature profiles (used here for validation). This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the future impact of climate change on lakes. This data set contains the following parameters: site_id, Prmnn_I, GNIS_ID, GNIS_Nm, ReachCd, FType, FCode, which are defined below.
Data release: Process-based predictions of lake water temperature in the Midwest US
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,Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles in 7,150 lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1980-2019. The data are organized into these items:
Data release: Process-based predictions of lake water temperature in the Midwest US
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures in different ways. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we focused on improving prediction accuracy for daily water temperature profiles in 7,150 lakes in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1980-2019.

The data are organized into these items:

  1. Spatial data - A lake metadata file, and one shapefile of polygons for all 7,150 lakes in this study (.shp, .shx, .dbf, and .prj files)
  2. Model configurations - Model parameters and metadata used to configure models (1 JSON file, with metadata for each of 7,150 lakes, and one zip file with each lake's glm2.nml file)
  3. Temperature observations - Data formatted as model inputs for training, calibrating, or evaluating temperature models
  4. Model inputs - Data used to drive predictive models (35 zip files with ice-flags; 35 zip files with daily meteorological data)
  5. Prediction data - Predictions calibrated and uncalibrated PB models (35 zip files)
  6. Predicted habitat - Data formatted for ecological use

  7. This study was funded by the Department of the Interior Northeast and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers. Access to computing facilities was provided by USGS Core Science Analytics and Synthesis Advanced Research Computing, USGS Yeti Supercomputer (https://doi.org/10.5066/F7D798MJ).

Lake Biogeochemical Model Output for One Retrospective and 12 Future Climate Runs in Northern Wisconsin & Michigan, USA
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This dataset contains modeled daily lake area, volume, constituent mass, and biogeochemical rates for 3,692 lakes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) for one retrospective model run (1986-2010) and 12 model runs under future climate scenarios. This dataset was created using published tools developed to simulate detailed hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes for thousands of lakes and reservoirs over large spatiotemporal scales. The lake hydrology model utilized a computationally-efficient integrated surface water and groundwater modeling framework that informed a lake water budget model incorporating daily hydrologic inputs and exports from individual lakes within the modeling domain. The lake biogeochemical model was informed by the hydrologic information and was built upon a simple lake energy budget, constituent loading, and lake biogeochemical model to track carbon storage and processing for all lakes within the NHLD modeling domain. Our one retrospective model run was driven by historic meteorological data and the projected model runs were driven by projected future climate scenario periods that are representative through the year 2100. For more details on the historic and projected driver data and model set up, please see Zwart et al. (year and DOI to be entered once MS is published).
Process-based water temperature predictions in the Midwest US: 6 Habitat metrics
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This dataset summarized a collection of annual thermal metrics to characterize lake temperature impacts on fish habitat for 7,150 lakes from uncalibrated models (PB0) and 449 from calibrated models (PBALL). The dataset includes over 172 annual thermal metrics.
Wisconsin Lake Temperature Metrics Decreasing Clarity
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It is well recognized that the climate is warming in response to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Over the last decade, this has had a warming effect on lakes. Water clarity is also known to effect water temperature in lakes. What is unclear is how a warming climate might interact with changes in water clarity in lakes. As part of a project at the USGS Office of Water Information, several water clarity scenarios were simulated for lakes in Wisconsin to examine how changing water clarity interacts with climate change to affect lake temperatures at a broad scale. This data set contains the following parameters: year, WBIC, durStrat, max_schmidt_stability, mean_schmidt_stability_JAS, mean_schmidt_stability_July, SthermoD_mean_JAS, SthermoD_mean, lake_average_temp, peak_lake_average_temp, lake_average_temp_JAS, mean_epi_temp, mean_hypo_temp, mean_surf_temp, mean_bottom_temp, peak_surf_temp, peak_bottom_temp, mean_surf_temp_JAS, mean_bottom_temp_JAS, mean_bottom_temp_365, mean_surf_temp_365, mean_1m_temp, mean_surf_JA, GDD_wtr_5c, GDD_wtr_10c, volume_mean_m_3, simulation_length_days, mean_volumetric_temp, kd, out_val calculated for 2210 lakes.