Flood region boundary for region 4.

Flood region boundary for region 2.

To improve flood-frequency estimates at rural streams in Mississippi, annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows at gaged streams in Mississippi and regional-regression equations, used to estimate annual exceedance probability flows for ungaged streams in Mississippi, were developed by using current geospatial data, additional statistical methods, and annual peak-flow data through the 2013 water year. The regional-regression equations were derived from statistical analyses of peak-flow data, basin characteristics associated with 281 streamgages, the generalized skew from Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), and a newly developed study-specific skew for select four-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC4) watersheds in Mississippi. Four flood regions were identified based on residuals from the regional-regression analyses. No analysis was conducted for streams in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain flood region because of a lack of long-term streamflow data and poorly defined basin characteristics. Flood regions containing sites with similar basin and climatic characteristics yielded better regional-regression equations with lower error percentages. The generalized least squares method was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region for annual exceedance probability flows. The peak-flow statistics were estimated by fitting a log-Pearson type III distribution to records of annual peak flows and then applying two additional statistical methods: (1) the expected moments algorithm to help describe uncertainty in annual peak flows and to better represent missing and historical record; and (2) the generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test to screen out potentially influential low outliers and to better fit the upper end of the peak-flow distribution. Standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 28 to 46 percent. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the models ranged from 91 to 96 percent. Flood Region A, located in north-central Mississippi, contained 27 streamgages with drainage areas that ranged from 1.41 to 612 square miles. The 1% annual exceedance probability had a standard error of prediction of 31 percent which was lower than the prediction errors in Flood Regions B and C.

The basis for these features is U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Report 2017-5024 Flood Inundation Mapping Data for Johnson Creek near Sycamore, Oregon. The domain of the HEC-RAS hydraulic model is a 12.9 mile reach of Johnson Creek from just upstream of SE 174th Avenue in Portland, Oregon to its confluence with the Willamette River. Some of the hydraulics used in the model were taken from Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2010, Flood Insurance Study, City of Portland, Oregon, Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties, Volume 1 of 3, November 26, 2010. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) utilized for the project was developed from LiDAR data flown in 2015 and provided by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Bridge decks are generally removed from DEMs as standard practice. Therefore, these features may be shown as inundated when they are not. Judgement should be used when estimating the usefulness of a bridge during flood flow. Comparing the bridge to the surrounding ground can be more informative in this respect than simply looking at the bridge itself. Two model plans were used in the creation of the flood layers. The first is a stable model plan using unsteady flow in which the maximum streamflow is held in place for a long period of time (a number of days) in order to replicate a steady model using an unsteady plan. The stable model plan produced the areas of uncertainty contained in the sycor_breach.shp shapefile. The second is an unstable model plan that uses unsteady flow in which the full hydrograph (rising and falling limb) is represented based on the hydrograph shape of the December 2015 peak annual flood. The unstable model plan produced the flood extent polygons contained in the sycor.shp shapefile and the depth rasters and represents the best estimate of flood inundation for the given streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 14211500.

Regional regression equations were calculated in Puerto Rico with generalized least squares techniques to estimate flood frequency statistics at ungaged locations using drainage area as the only explanatory variable. The island was divided into 2 regions to minimize residuals. The region division that resulted in lower and more balanced residuals runs primarily north-south near the center of the island, mostly along an 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) boundary. The division line runs through a HUC8 polygon on the southern end of the island, but care was taken to include entire watersheds and consideration was given where hydrologic and physiographic properties differed. This data release includes geographic information system files that define the polygons for both regions.

To improve flood-frequency estimates at rural streams in Mississippi, annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows at gaged streams in Mississippi and regional-regression equations, used to estimate annual exceedance probability flows for ungaged streams in Mississippi, were developed by using current geospatial data, additional statistical methods, and annual peak-flow data through the 2013 water year. The regional-regression equations were derived from statistical analyses of peak-flow data, basin characteristics associated with 281 streamgages, the generalized skew from Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), and a newly developed study-specific skew for select four-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC4) watersheds in Mississippi. Four flood regions were identified based on residuals from the regional-regression analyses. No analysis was conducted for streams in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain flood region because of a lack of long-term streamflow data and poorly defined basin characteristics. Flood regions containing sites with similar basin and climatic characteristics yielded better regional-regression equations with lower error percentages. The generalized least squares method was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region for annual exceedance probability flows. The peak-flow statistics were estimated by fitting a log-Pearson type III distribution to records of annual peak flows and then applying two additional statistical methods: (1) the expected moments algorithm to help describe uncertainty in annual peak flows and to better represent missing and historical record; and (2) the generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test to screen out potentially influential low outliers and to better fit the upper end of the peak-flow distribution. Standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 28 to 46 percent. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the models ranged from 91 to 96 percent. Flood Region C, located in the southwest corner of Mississippi, contained 120 streamgages with drainage areas that ranged from 0.05 to 1,010 square miles. The 1% annual exceedance probability had a standard error of prediction of 41 percent.

To improve flood-frequency estimates at rural streams in Mississippi, annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows at gaged streams in Mississippi and regional-regression equations, used to estimate annual exceedance probability flows for ungaged streams in Mississippi, were developed by using current geospatial data, additional statistical methods, and annual peak-flow data through the 2013 water year. The regional-regression equations were derived from statistical analyses of peak-flow data, basin characteristics associated with 281 streamgages, the generalized skew from Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), and a newly developed study-specific skew for select four-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC4) watersheds in Mississippi. Four flood regions were identified based on residuals from the regional-regression analyses. No analysis was conducted for streams in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain flood region because of a lack of long-term streamflow data and poorly defined basin characteristics. Flood regions containing sites with similar basin and climatic characteristics yielded better regional-regression equations with lower error percentages. The generalized least squares method was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region for annual exceedance probability flows. The peak-flow statistics were estimated by fitting a log-Pearson type III distribution to records of annual peak flows and then applying two additional statistical methods: (1) the expected moments algorithm to help describe uncertainty in annual peak flows and to better represent missing and historical record; and (2) the generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test to screen out potentially influential low outliers and to better fit the upper end of the peak-flow distribution. Standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 28 to 46 percent. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the models ranged from 91 to 96 percent. Flood Region B, located along the eastern border of Mississippi, contained 134 streamgages with drainage areas that ranged from 0.15 to 1,750 square miles. The 1% annual exceedance probability had a standard error of prediction of 35 percent.

Dataset is a model archive containing all relevant files to create regression models that are discussed in the report: Koltun, G.F., 2019, Flood-frequency estimates for Ohio streamgages based on data through water year 2015 and techniques for estimating flood-frequency characteristics of rural, unregulated Ohio streams: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019-5018. WREG R source code, regression results and associated output files are also included in the archive.

This model archive contains R source code for the Weighted-Multiple Linear Regression Program (WREG), input files, and associated output files needed to recreate regression models that are discussed in the report: Levin, S.B. and Sanocki, C.A., Methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for unregulated streams in Wisconsin, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2022-5118 (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225118). More information and instructions for running the model archive are included in the README.txt file. Information regarding the WREG program can be found at: https://water.usgs.gov/software/WREG/.

The basis for these features is U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Report 2017-5024 Flood Inundation Mapping Data for Johnson Creek near Sycamore, Oregon. The domain of the HEC-RAS hydraulic model is a 12.9 mile reach of Johnson Creek from just upstream of SE 174th Avenue in Portland, Oregon to its confluence with the Willamette River. Some of the hydraulics used in the model were taken from Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2010, Flood Insurance Study, City of Portland, Oregon, Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington Counties, Volume 1 of 3, November 26, 2010. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) utilized for the project was developed from LiDAR data flown in 2015 and provided by the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Bridge decks are generally removed from DEMs as standard practice. Therefore, these features may be shown as inundated when they are not. Judgement should be used when estimating the usefulness of a bridge during flood flow. Comparing the bridge to the surrounding ground can be more informative in this respect than simply looking at the bridge itself. Two model plans were used in the creation of the flood layers. The first is a stable model plan using unsteady flow in which the maximum streamflow is held in place for a long period of time (a number of days) in order to replicate a steady model using an unsteady plan. The stable model plan produced the areas of uncertainty contained in the sycor_breach.shp shapefile. The second is an unstable model plan that uses unsteady flow in which the full hydrograph (rising and falling limb) is represented based on the hydrograph shape of the December 2015 peak annual flood. The unstable model plan produced the flood extent polygons contained in the sycor.shp shapefile and the depth rasters and represents the best estimate of flood inundation for the given streamflow at U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 14211500.