Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. We compared streamflow predictions from a regional-scale hydrological model to those of several fine-scale SW models under a range of hypothetical climate change scenarios to determine the range of predicted streamflow responses to fixed climate perturbations.This spreadsheet contains the results of a study investigating the sensitivity of predicted discharge to changes in precipitation and temperature inputs for a coarse scale (WaSSI) and three fine scale (HSPF, SWAT, WaterFALL) hydrologic models at a single site (02347500, FLINT RIVER AT US 19, NEAR CARSONVILLE, GA) from 1981 to 1999. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using regional and local scale models to identify unique areas of concern and understand fine scale hydrologic dynamics under climate change. Descriptions of the models and results of the study are detailed in the final report.

Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. We compared streamflow predictions from a regional-scale hydrological model to those of several fine-scale SW models under a range of hypothetical climate change scenarios to determine the range of predicted streamflow responses to fixed climate perturbations.This spreadsheet contains the results of a study investigating the sensitivity of predicted discharge to changes in precipitation and temperature inputs for a coarse scale (WaSSI) and three fine scale (HSPF, SWAT, WaterFALL) hydrologic models at a single site (02347500, FLINT RIVER AT US 19, NEAR CARSONVILLE, GA) from 1981 to 1999. The objective of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using regional and local scale models to identify unique areas of concern and understand fine scale hydrologic dynamics under climate change. Descriptions of the models and results of the study are detailed in the final report.

Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. This report inventories and then directly examines and compares a subset of hydrological models implemented in the Southeastern US that were used to estimate streamflow at a number of gaged basins across the region. This effort was designed to evaluate, quantify and compare the magnitude, and investigate the potential causes of error, associated with predicted streamflows from seven hydrologic models of varying complexity and calibration strategy. This was accomplished by computing and then comparing classical hydrologic model fit statistics (e.g., mean bias, coefficient of determination, root mean squared error, NSE), and understanding the bias in the prediction in these and a subset of ecologically relevant flow metrics (ERFM).This spreadsheet contains model fit statistics for the model comparison workshop across 195 USGS streamflow gauges in the southeast. Descriptions of the models included are detailed in the final report.

Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. This report inventories and then directly examines and compares a subset of hydrological models implemented in the Southeastern US that were used to estimate streamflow at a number of gaged basins across the region. This effort was designed to evaluate, quantify and compare the magnitude, and investigate the potential causes of error, associated with predicted streamflows from seven hydrologic models of varying complexity and calibration strategy. This was accomplished by computing and then comparing classical hydrologic model fit statistics (e.g., mean bias, coefficient of determination, root mean squared error, NSE), and understanding the bias in the prediction in these and a subset of ecologically relevant flow metrics (ERFM).This spreadsheet contains model fit statistics for the model comparison workshop across 195 USGS streamflow gauges in the southeast. Descriptions of the models included are detailed in the final report.

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, productivities, and contamination by methylmercury across headwater watersheds. We applied this IEMS to the Coal River Basin (CRB), West Virginia (USA), an 8-digit hydrologic unit watershed, by simulating a network of 97 stream segments using the SWAT watershed model, a watershed mercury loading model, the WASP water quality model, the PiSCES fish community estimation model, a fish habitat suitability model, the BASS fish community and bioaccumulation model, and an ecoservices post-processer. Model application was facilitated by automated data retrieval and model setup and updated model wrappers and interfaces for data transfers between these models from a prior study. This companion study evaluates baseline predictions of ecoservices provided for 1990–2010 for the population of streams in the CRB and serves as a foundation for future model development. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Johnston , J., C. Barber , K. Wolfe , M. Galvin , M. Cyterski , and R. Parmar. An integrated ecological modeling system for assessing impacts of multiple stressors on stream and riverine ecosystem services within river basins. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS, 354: 104-114, (2017).

We demonstrate a novel, spatially explicit assessment of the current condition of aquatic ecosystem services, with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The Integrated Ecological Modeling System (IEMS) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, productivities, and contamination by methylmercury across headwater watersheds. We applied this IEMS to the Coal River Basin (CRB), West Virginia (USA), an 8-digit hydrologic unit watershed, by simulating a network of 97 stream segments using the SWAT watershed model, a watershed mercury loading model, the WASP water quality model, the PiSCES fish community estimation model, a fish habitat suitability model, the BASS fish community and bioaccumulation model, and an ecoservices post-processer. Model application was facilitated by automated data retrieval and model setup and updated model wrappers and interfaces for data transfers between these models from a prior study. This companion study evaluates baseline predictions of ecoservices provided for 1990–2010 for the population of streams in the CRB and serves as a foundation for future model development. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Johnston , J., C. Barber , K. Wolfe , M. Galvin , M. Cyterski , and R. Parmar. An integrated ecological modeling system for assessing impacts of multiple stressors on stream and riverine ecosystem services within river basins. ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam, NETHERLANDS, 354: 104-114, (2017).

This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations of the southeastern U.S. using the Monthly Water Balance Model, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and statistically-based methods. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions for an area of approximately 1.16 million square miles. These model input and output data are intended to accompany a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (LaFontaine and others, 2019); they include four types of data: 1) model input parameters, 2) model output statistics, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units and stream segments, and 4) statistically-based streamflow estimates for headwater watersheds. LaFontaine, J.H., Hart, R.M., Hay, L.E., Farmer, W.H., Bock, A.R., Viger, R.J., Markstrom, S.L., Regan, R.S., and Driscoll, J.M., 2019, Simulation of Water Availability in the Southeastern United States for Historical and Potential Future Climate and Land-Cover Conditions: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, 2019-5039, 83 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195039.

This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations of the southeastern U.S. using the Monthly Water Balance Model, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and statistically-based methods. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions for an area of approximately 1.16 million square miles. These model input and output data are intended to accompany a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (LaFontaine and others, 2019); they include four types of data: 1) model input parameters, 2) model output statistics, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units and stream segments, and 4) statistically-based streamflow estimates for headwater watersheds. LaFontaine, J.H., Hart, R.M., Hay, L.E., Farmer, W.H., Bock, A.R., Viger, R.J., Markstrom, S.L., Regan, R.S., and Driscoll, J.M., 2019, Simulation of Water Availability in the Southeastern United States for Historical and Potential Future Climate and Land-Cover Conditions: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, 2019-5039, 83 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20195039.

This dataset consists of time series and evaluation metrics (in comma-separated value format [.csv]) which are described in the Bock and others (2018) Advances in Water Resources research article “Quantifying uncertainty in simulated streamflow and runoff from a continental-scale monthly water balance model.” In this paper, uncertainty was quantified in simulated monthly runoff produced by a monthly water balance model for gaged and ungaged locations across the conterminous United States. The compressed folder UI_byGage.zip contains two files. The file UI_byGage.csv contains the monthly time-step uncertainty intervals and measured and simulated time series of streamflow developed at 1,575 streamgages across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The period of record varies by streamgage. The file Met_byGage.csv contains three metrics (coverage ratio, average width index, and interval skill score), which are evaluations of the uncertainty interval at each of the streamgages. The compressed folder RUN_byHRU.zip contains simulated runoff for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the CONUS. Files are organized by ninteen hydrologic regions (NHDPlus, 2010) and available at a monthly time-step from January 1949 through December 2010. The compressed folder UI_byHRU.zip contains uncertainty intervals (rXX_High.csv and rXX_Low.csv) bounding the simulated runoff at the HRUs. The files have naming conventions and formats identical to the files in the RUN_byHRU.zip folder. The file AWI_byHRU.csv is the average width index calculated for each HRU. See Bock and others (2018) for a full description of the data and metrics.

Annual permitted take (APT) is a critical component of sustainable resource management, balancing the need for water resource utilisation with the preservation of ecosystems. It is a crucial mechanism for ensuring the long-term annual sustainable diversion limits (SDLs) set under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan are not exceeded, and that enough water is available for the environment. APT is the maximum amount of water permitted to be taken for consumptive purposes each year, and has been enforced since July 2019 A method for determining APT is part of each water resource plans (WRPs) developed by the Basin states under the Commonwealth Water Act 2007. When the method is applied over the Basin Plan reference period (1895–2009), the annual APT must be equal to or less than SDL. An APT model is a major component of the APT calculation method. It is used to calculate the APT that would be expected in a year, given that year’s water availability and climatic conditions. APT is calculated at the end of each year and compared to actual take in that year, with the difference added to a public register of take. SDL compliance is tracked using the cumulative difference (from water year 2019–20). APT models are configured using estimates of the river management and development (public and private infrastructure) conditions in a river system across the water resource plan period. These estimates include: • irrigated crop area and planting decisions • water entitlement holders’ distribution and use patterns • how storages are operated to supply water for consumption and the environment.