This map shows percentage changes in the minimum annual rate of water carried by rivers and streams across the country, based on the long-term rate of change from 1940 to 2022. For more information: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators.

This map shows percentage changes in the minimum annual rate of water carried by rivers and streams across the country, based on the long-term rate of change from 1940 to 2022. For more information: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators.

Peak-flow frequency analysis is crucial in various water-resources management applications, including floodplain management and critical structure design. Federal guidelines for peak-flow frequency analyses, provided in Bulletin 17C, assume that the statistical properties of the hydrologic processes driving variability in peak flows do not change over time and so the frequency distribution of annual peak flows is stationary. Better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and further consideration of potential climate and land-use changes have caused the assumption of stationarity to be reexamined. This data release contains input data and results of a study investigating hydroclimatic trends in peak streamflow (peak flow) in the Central United States, including nine states (Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). Peak flow records from unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages were used to evaluate changes over 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year trend periods, all ending in water year 2020. This data release contains station lists of the streamgages used in each of the nine states, the peak streamflow input data and peak streamflow analysis results, and the climate input data and climate analysis results. See "Station_Lists.zip" on the landing page for station lists (in text file format) for each state included in the study.

Peak-flow frequency analysis is crucial in various water-resources management applications, including floodplain management and critical structure design. Federal guidelines for peak-flow frequency analyses, provided in Bulletin 17C, assume that the statistical properties of the hydrologic processes driving variability in peak flows do not change over time and so the frequency distribution of annual peak flows is stationary. Better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and further consideration of potential climate and land-use changes have caused the assumption of stationarity to be reexamined. This data release contains input data and results of a study investigating hydroclimatic trends in peak streamflow (peak flow) in the Central United States, including nine states (Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). Peak flow records from unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages were used to evaluate changes over 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year trend periods, all ending in water year 2020. This data release contains station lists of the streamgages used in each of the nine states, the peak streamflow input data and peak streamflow analysis results, and the climate input data and climate analysis results. See "Station_Lists.zip" on the landing page for station lists (in text file format) for each state included in the study.

We projected future streamflow outcomes arising from climate change for the southwestern United States during the 21st century due to climate change under two possible greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The results inform water managers about the future risks of drought in their water resource regions by providing bounds on the possible locations and extents of streamflow loss. To get to these results, we used downscaled future and historical climate data from seven models to drive a new, calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model (Wise and others, 2019, Miller and others, 2020). Temperature and precipitation data come from the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30, Thrasher and others, 2013 and Thrasher and others, 2015), and actual and potential evapotranspiration come from the NEX-DCP30 temperature and precipitation used in the Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM, Hostetler and Alder, 2016 and Alder, 2017a,b,c). This data set comprises climate data preprocessing code to convert the gridded, monthly-scale climate data to reach scale multidecadal averages for the intervals 1975-2005, 2020-2049, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, the model input (data1) and model control files, the model code, model results files, and code to post-process and analyze the streamflow model results. The raw climate data (NEX-DCP30, MWBM), and SPARROW model calibration documentation are publicly available elsewhere and are cross linked with this data release (see crossref section). The full data preparation, modeling, and analysis methods, as well as results are described in Miller and others, (2021)

We projected future streamflow outcomes arising from climate change for the southwestern United States during the 21st century due to climate change under two possible greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The results inform water managers about the future risks of drought in their water resource regions by providing bounds on the possible locations and extents of streamflow loss. To get to these results, we used downscaled future and historical climate data from seven models to drive a new, calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) streamflow model (Wise and others, 2019, Miller and others, 2020). Temperature and precipitation data come from the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30, Thrasher and others, 2013 and Thrasher and others, 2015), and actual and potential evapotranspiration come from the NEX-DCP30 temperature and precipitation used in the Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM, Hostetler and Alder, 2016 and Alder, 2017a,b,c). This data set comprises climate data preprocessing code to convert the gridded, monthly-scale climate data to reach scale multidecadal averages for the intervals 1975-2005, 2020-2049, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, the model input (data1) and model control files, the model code, model results files, and code to post-process and analyze the streamflow model results. The raw climate data (NEX-DCP30, MWBM), and SPARROW model calibration documentation are publicly available elsewhere and are cross linked with this data release (see crossref section). The full data preparation, modeling, and analysis methods, as well as results are described in Miller and others, (2021)

This dataset contains statistical descriptions of observed daily-mean streamflow for 956 sites in the southeast United States. For each site, statistical descriptions are provided according to decade for up to six decades, beginning in 1950 (1950-59 calendar years) and ending with 2000 (2000 - 2009 calendar years) with no more than 7 missing values per year in total (continuous or noncontinuous). There are 40 statistical descriptions including 28 flow-duration curve values, 8 L-moments, and 4 describing the minimum, maximum, median flow for days not equal to zero, and number of zero-flow days. Site information is provided by decade - the number of rows per site varies from 1 to 6 depending on the number of decades with observed record available. This information was used as the response variable(s) for statistical models for estimating the same characteristics at nearly 10,000 ungaged locations throughout the southeast United States. The dataset has been provided as a shapefile and a comma-delimited file. The comma-delimited file is an exact copy of the attribute table of the shapefile.

This dataset contains statistical descriptions of observed daily-mean streamflow for 956 sites in the southeast United States. For each site, statistical descriptions are provided according to decade for up to six decades, beginning in 1950 (1950-59 calendar years) and ending with 2000 (2000 - 2009 calendar years) with no more than 7 missing values per year in total (continuous or noncontinuous). There are 40 statistical descriptions including 28 flow-duration curve values, 8 L-moments, and 4 describing the minimum, maximum, median flow for days not equal to zero, and number of zero-flow days. Site information is provided by decade - the number of rows per site varies from 1 to 6 depending on the number of decades with observed record available. This information was used as the response variable(s) for statistical models for estimating the same characteristics at nearly 10,000 ungaged locations throughout the southeast United States. The dataset has been provided as a shapefile and a comma-delimited file. The comma-delimited file is an exact copy of the attribute table of the shapefile.

This data release contains daily time series estimates of natural streamflow at 5,439 GAGES-II non-reference streamgages in 19 study regions across the conterminous United States from October 1, 1980 through September 30, 2017, using five statistical techniques: nearest-neighbor drainage area ratio (NNDAR), map-correlation drainage area ratio (MCDAR), nearest-neighbor nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NNQPPQ), map-correlation nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (MCQPPQ), and ordinary kriging of the logarithms of discharge per unit area (OKDAR). NNDAR, MCDAR, NNQPPQ, and MCQPPQ estimates were computed following methods described in Farmer and others (2014), with updates to the flow-duration curve modeling which is described in Over and others (2018). OKDAR estimates were computed using pooled variograms for each study region following methods described in Farmer (2016). Daily streamflow estimation was conducted by study region (hydrologic unit code level-2 regions as defined in Falcone, 2011) by building statistical models using 1,385 GAGES-II reference streamgages from mostly undisturbed watersheds as index gages (Russell and others, 2020). Estimates were then made at GAGES-II non-reference streamgages. Location information and basin characteristics for study gages were obtained from the GAGES-II dataset (Falcone, 2011). Observed daily streamflow data were retrieved from the National Water Information System (USGS, 2019). This data release contains 19 separate zip files; one for each study region. Each zip file contains an individual tab-delimited text file for each non-reference streamgage in the study region. A text file summarizing period of record information for each non-reference streamgage is provided (non-reference_gages_summary.csv). This data release also contains a text file (Model_info.csv) of regional regression equations for 27 flow quantiles that were developed in each study region in order to implement the QPPQ methods and a text file (BC_transformations.csv) describing transformations made to the GAGES-II derived basin characteristics prior to use in the regression equations. The five sets of streamflow estimates represent expected natural streamflow conditions with minimal disturbance by human activities, in other words, without the effects of regulation, diversion, land development, or other anthropogenic activities. The observed streamflow records at the non-reference streamgages were compared to the five simulated streamflow records. These performance metrics are provided at each gage for all five statistical methods (NonRef_PMs_byStation.csv) and as summaries by region (NonRef_PM_summaries_byRegion.csv). References cited: Falcone, J.A., 2011, GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow [digital spatial dataset]: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources NSDI Node web page, https://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getspatial?gagesII_Sept2011. Farmer, W.H., Archfield, S.A., Over, T.M., Hay, L.E., LaFontaine, J.H., and Kiang, J.E., 2014, A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5231, 34 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20145231. Farmer, W. H., 2016, Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2721-2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016. Over, T.M., Farmer, W.H., and Russell, A.M., 2018, Refinement of a regression-based method for prediction of flow-duration curves of daily streamflow in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2018–5072, 34 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185072. Russell, A.M., Over, T.M., and Farmer, W.H., 2020, Cross-validation results for five statistical methods of daily streamflow estimation at 1,385 reference streamgages in the conterminous United States, Water Years

This data release contains daily time series estimates of natural streamflow at 5,439 GAGES-II non-reference streamgages in 19 study regions across the conterminous United States from October 1, 1980 through September 30, 2017, using five statistical techniques: nearest-neighbor drainage area ratio (NNDAR), map-correlation drainage area ratio (MCDAR), nearest-neighbor nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (NNQPPQ), map-correlation nonlinear spatial interpolation using flow duration curves (MCQPPQ), and ordinary kriging of the logarithms of discharge per unit area (OKDAR). NNDAR, MCDAR, NNQPPQ, and MCQPPQ estimates were computed following methods described in Farmer and others (2014), with updates to the flow-duration curve modeling which is described in Over and others (2018). OKDAR estimates were computed using pooled variograms for each study region following methods described in Farmer (2016). Daily streamflow estimation was conducted by study region (hydrologic unit code level-2 regions as defined in Falcone, 2011) by building statistical models using 1,385 GAGES-II reference streamgages from mostly undisturbed watersheds as index gages (Russell and others, 2020). Estimates were then made at GAGES-II non-reference streamgages. Location information and basin characteristics for study gages were obtained from the GAGES-II dataset (Falcone, 2011). Observed daily streamflow data were retrieved from the National Water Information System (USGS, 2019). This data release contains 19 separate zip files; one for each study region. Each zip file contains an individual tab-delimited text file for each non-reference streamgage in the study region. A text file summarizing period of record information for each non-reference streamgage is provided (non-reference_gages_summary.csv). This data release also contains a text file (Model_info.csv) of regional regression equations for 27 flow quantiles that were developed in each study region in order to implement the QPPQ methods and a text file (BC_transformations.csv) describing transformations made to the GAGES-II derived basin characteristics prior to use in the regression equations. The five sets of streamflow estimates represent expected natural streamflow conditions with minimal disturbance by human activities, in other words, without the effects of regulation, diversion, land development, or other anthropogenic activities. The observed streamflow records at the non-reference streamgages were compared to the five simulated streamflow records. These performance metrics are provided at each gage for all five statistical methods (NonRef_PMs_byStation.csv) and as summaries by region (NonRef_PM_summaries_byRegion.csv). References cited: Falcone, J.A., 2011, GAGES-II: Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow [digital spatial dataset]: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources NSDI Node web page, https://water.usgs.gov/lookup/getspatial?gagesII_Sept2011. Farmer, W.H., Archfield, S.A., Over, T.M., Hay, L.E., LaFontaine, J.H., and Kiang, J.E., 2014, A comparison of methods to predict historical daily streamflow time series in the southeastern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014–5231, 34 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20145231. Farmer, W. H., 2016, Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2721-2735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016. Over, T.M., Farmer, W.H., and Russell, A.M., 2018, Refinement of a regression-based method for prediction of flow-duration curves of daily streamflow in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2018–5072, 34 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185072. Russell, A.M., Over, T.M., and Farmer, W.H., 2020, Cross-validation results for five statistical methods of daily streamflow estimation at 1,385 reference streamgages in the conterminous United States, Water Years