The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment associated with climate and system variability". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE Climate and the marine environment varies on multiple temporal and spatial scales. This variability results in seasonal, inter-annual, decadal and longer changes to water temperature, rainfall patterns affecting ocean salinity, and surface winds, oceanic currents and tidal regimes which can influence the degree of vertical mixing through the water column. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT Published papers and reports on climate variability. Details of the specific data sets used to generate this assessment have not been provided. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • 2016 • Assessment grade: Low impact Assessment trend: Unclear Confidence grade: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Confidence trend: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Comparability: Not previously asssessed • 2011 • (Not previously assessed) CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT Climate and system variability as a pressure on the marine environment was not assessed in 2011.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Effectiveness of marine management of climate variability and climate change". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE BEING MANAGED, AND ITS IMPACT Anthropogenic ocean warming, superimposed on natural climate variations – in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation and decadal variability – and ocean acidification pose risks to Australia’s coral reef ecosystems, giant kelp and other habitats. In response, there have been significant shifts in the ranges of various invertebrates and fish. Recent reviews of climate change impacts and adaptation on Australia’s commercial marine fisheries and marine ecosystems discuss the implications for marine management. On the Great Barrier Reef, rising summer sea temperatures and steadily increasing ocean acidity increase the risk of mass coral bleaching. The cumulative impacts of economic activities – port dredging and runoff of sediment, nutrients and fertiliser from agriculture, for example – cause coral reefs to become stressed and more prone to the effects of climate change. More broadly around Australia, ocean warming and changes in currents are affecting fisheries and aquaculture. World-leading research on these risks is ongoing through Australian universities and research institutes and in consequence the understanding of physical processes is high. Understanding of the economic and cultural significance of the marine environment for Australia is lower, but considerable value is attributed to coastal regions in temperate and tropical Australia. Understanding of the management strategies required to combat the risks is lower still due at least in part to its complexity. Research is ongoing, but a greater investment in developing, implementing and monitoring strategies, monitoring and understanding change, and systematic acquisition and storage of data, is required. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT The assessment is based on published literature – a list is provided in the attached Expert Assessment. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • Understanding of pressure: Understanding of climate variability and its management is reasonably high and improving with government funding for well-established and internationally-respected institutions. • Planning associated with management of pressure: In-depth planning for icons such as the Great Barrier Reef continues, and commercial fisheries are aware of the need to plan around climate variability. Elsewhere efforts are more patchy. • Input for informing management of pressure: Short-term funding cycles are a continuing threat to effective management for long-term goals and sustainability. • Processes associated with developing, monitoring, and updating management: Management tools and approaches exist and in some cases are applied; stronger regulation is required for long-term environmental health. • Outputs from management framework in place: Conflicting interests between economic development and the environment are leading to a gradual long-term environmental declines, which current management is not addressing. • Outcomes of management framework in place: Further policy and management controls are required to address declining environmental health and emerging risks of climate change. CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT Not specified. Review of additional literature has been conducted since 2011 SoE Assessment.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Case Study "Towards a blueprint for monitoring and reporting on biodiversity in Australia’s oceans". The full Case Study, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Case Study are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE FOCUS OF THE CASE STUDY Monitoring Australia’s Commonwealth Marine Area (CMA) is fundamental to understanding and reporting on how the ocean is changing in response to human pressures. The National Environmental Research Program Marine Biodiversity Hub, collaborated with the Australian Government Department of the Environment, to develop "Towards a blueprint..." to monitor and report on key ecological features in the CMA. "Towards a blueprint..." shows how Australia can expand its institutional capacity to meet the reporting needs of the Department of the Environment. It identifies existing data for areas where monitoring can begin, and assesses Australia’s capability to collect new monitoring data as a basis for decision making. Key Ecological Features (KEFs) are parts of the ocean identified in the Australian Government’s marine bioregional plans as highly valued for their importance to biodiversity or ecological function and integrity. They provide an important starting point for developing monitoring in the Commonwealth Marine Area. PRESSURES/ISSUES OF IMPORTANCE Fifty-four KEFs were identified in Commonwealth waters during marine planning processes. As the map of Australia illustrates (Figure 1), KEFs come in many shapes and sizes and Towards a blueprint divides them into six groups for reporting purposes. These are areas of enhanced pelagic productivity, canyons, deep seabeds, seamounts, shelf reefs and seabeds. While the oceanography of most KEF groups has been studied, the level of biological sampling varies. Areas of enhanced pelagic productivity are the best understood, and shelf seabeds and deep seabeds the least. The Bonney Coast Upwelling is one of nine enhanced pelagic productivity Key Ecological Features identified in Australia’s Commonwealth waters and provides a good example of how KEFs focus biodiversity monitoring. From November to May, the surface waters of the Bonney Coast are blown offshore by south-easterly winds and replaced by cold, nutrient-rich water. The sunlit nutrients fuel an explosion of phytoplankton that sustains hordes of marine life, from krill to blue whales. Understanding long-term changes to this biophysical system and distinguishing what is most likely to have caused any changes is the focus for monitoring. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN CASE STUDY Satellite observations of chlorophyll and derived net primary productivity estimates.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "The state and trends of ecological communities/habitats – offshore banks, shoals, islands". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF ECOLOGICAL HABITAT/COMMUNITY FOR EXPERT ASSESSMENT Assemblages of plants and animals found on offshore banks, and shoals around islands, in the 0-25 m depth range. This largely relates to reefs in the Coral Sea, Elizabeth and Middleton Reefs, Lord Howe Island, Norfolk Island, and the offshore reefs in the north and north-west. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT Reef Life Survey data were used for the current status assessment, with extensive spatial coverage of sites on most offshore banks, shoals and Island around the continent where the seabed rises to within 20 m of the surface. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • 2016 • Assessment grade: Good Assessment trend: Stable Confidence grade: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus Confidence trend: Limited evidence or limited consensus Comparability: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the 2011 assessment • 2011 • Assessment grade: Good Assessment trend: Stable Confidence grade: Limited evidence or limited consensus Confidence trend: Limited evidence or limited consensus CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT The 2016 assessment is based on an updated and expanded dataset.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment associated with climate change - oceanic dissolved oxygen and oxygen minimum zones in shelf and offshore regions". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE Surface ocean salinity is largely reflective of the exchange of freshwater with the atmosphere, with areas of high surface salinity found in regions where evaporation exceeds precipitation. Subduction of water from the ocean surface to the oceans interior transports surface salinity, resulting in salinity distributions of the oceans interior also reflecting surface rates of evaporation and precipitation. Melting and freezing of sea ice and glaciers also contributes to ocean salinity. Changes to salinity that may be driven by climate change have the potential to affect ocean circulation and stratification and contribute to sea level change. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT Published papers and reports on ocean salinity and climate change. Details of the specific data sets used to generate this assessment have not been provided. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • 2016 • Assessment grade: Low impact Assessment trend: Deteriorating Confidence grade: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Confidence trend: Adequate high quality evidence or high level of consensus Comparability: Grade and trend are not comparable to the 2011 assessment • 2011 • Assessment grade: Very good Assessment trend: Stable Confidence grade: Limited evidence or limited consensus Confidence trend: Limited evidence or limited consensus CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT Ocean salinity was assessed under state and trends of physical and chemical processes and discussed in the text in terms of the pressure climate change.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment associated with climate change - ocean acidification". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE The uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the ocean results in changes in seawater chemistry, including a decrease in pH and dissolved carbonate ion concentrations, know as ocean acidification. Since pre-industrial times the pH of waters around Australia are estimated to have decreased between 0.08 and 0.10, consistent with global estimates of pH change. Superimposed on the large-scale change is much more variability at seasonal and local scales where natural processes can amplify or offset ocean acidification in a range of environments (Mongin et al., 2016; Walbusser et al, 2014; Shaw et al., 2012). The detection of trends and state in most coastal, shelf and subsurface waters around Australia is limited by lack of data. The pH and dissolved carbonate ion concentration of ocean waters around Australia will continue to decrease at the ocean takes up atmospheric CO2 emissions. The rates of change are linked to different emission scenarios (Lenton et al., 2015). Ocean acidification will persist for many millennia, even if emissions are reduced (e.g. Frolicher and Joos, 2010). Seasonal undersaturation of aragonite in surface waters of the Southern Ocean is predicted to occur by 2030 with consequences for calcifying organisms like pteropods (McNeil and Matear, 2008; Hauri et al., 2015). Ocean acidification is expected to lead to widespread shifts in ecosystems and puts at risk regional economies reliant on healthy and sustainable marine ecosystems such as tourism and aquaculture. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT Offshore data from around Australia as described in Lenton et al 2015. Details of the specific data sets used to generate this assessment have not been provided. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • 2016 • Assessment grade: Very high impact Assessment trend: Deteriorating Confidence grade: Adequate high quality evidence and high level of consensus Confidence trend: Adequate high quality evidence and high level of consensus Comparability: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the 2011 assessment • 2011 • Assessment grade: Very good Assessment trend: Deteriorating Confidence grade: Limited evidence or limited consensus Confidence trend: Limited evidence or limited consensus CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT More data are now available.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment associated with climate change - ocean currents and eddies". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE The dominant Australian boundary currents are the; East Australian Current (EAC), Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and Leeuwin Current (LC). The EAC is the western boundary current system of the South Pacific. In the Australian region, it redistributes heat between ocean and atmosphere and the tropics and mid-latitudes. The ITF, a major component of the global ocean circulation, moves water between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It strongly influences Australian climate and seas off Western Australia. The LC flows southwards off Western Australia redistributing Indian Ocean heat to the mid-latitudes. This differs from the cooler, equatorward flowing currents found along other eastern ocean boundaries. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT The assessment is based on the results of analysis published in peer reviewed papers. Details of the specific data sets used to generate this assessment have not been provided. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • Assessment grade: High impact. Boundary current strength is strongly linked to major climate modes – ENSO, IOD and SAM- whose variability are predicted to increase with climate change. • Assessment trend: Deteriorating. Increasing variability of boundary current strength and heat, freshwater, and nutrient transport, will impact coastal circulation, extreme marine conditions, and the marine ecosystem. • Confidence grade: • Confidence trend: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus. Observations and models agree that modes of climate variability will be impacted by continued climate change. CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT Grade and trends are somewhat comparable to the 2011 assessment.

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment associated with climate change - sea surface temperature". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE Sea-surface temperature (SST) is a vital component of the marine ecosystem system as it exerts a major influence on the structure and function of the marine and atmospheric environment. DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT The majority of the assessment is based on data and analyses published in peer review papers. Some analyses of SST observations and model output have been included in the assessment. Details of specific data sets used to generate the assessment have not been provided. 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details] • Assessment grade: High impact. Sea surface temperature has continued to increase and extreme events have occurred in some regions. • Assessment trend: Deteriorating. Increasing sea surface temperature has significant impact on marine biodiversity and ocean health • Confidence grade: • Confidence trend: Adequate high-quality evidence or high level of consensus. Observations and models agree that sea surface temperature will continue to increase and extreme events may increase in frequency CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT Grade and trends are somewhat comparable to the 2011 assessment.