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Management strategy evaluation results and discussion for Australias North West Shelf
The management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework has been developed for scientific support of regional multiple-use management of marine and coastal resources. The MSE approach was used in the North West Shelf Joint Environmental Management Study to demonstrate the variation in possible outcomes from prospective and existing management strategies and development scenarios. In this report we provide an evaluation of the results of computer simulations designed to demonstrate the utility of the MSE framework. Relevant background and further elaboration can be found in three companion reports Gray et al. (2006), Fulton et al. (2006b) and Hatfield et al. (2006). The key message from the simulations is that patterns in indicator variables under the integrated management strategy are clearly distinguishable from those under both the status quo and enhanced management strategies. Notwithstanding a few notable exceptions, this outcome is consistent across a range of uncertainties, including those treated explicitly in the alternative model specifications and development scenarios, and those treated as random variables in separate computer simulations. The outcome is consistent because the integrated strategy balances impacts across a range of sectoral activities that impact not only the sector itself, but also other sectors, or the human population and ecosystem as a whole. In contrast, the sectorally-based management strategies (i.e. the status quo and enhanced strategies) invoke broadly similar (to each other) patterns in the indicator variables, although the enhanced strategy has differential impacts on some conservation and social variables. The integrated management strategy outcomes improves upon those from the sectorbased strategies because it actively manages the region from a multiple-use perspective and simultaneously monitors, and responds to, indicator variables that represent social, environmental conservation, economic and safety considerations. With the exception of cases where uncertainty dominates the simulation results (notably prawn biomass and regional habitat coverage), the integrated management strategy (compared to the other, sector-based, management strategies) leads to: significant increases in the stocks and catch rates of high-value fish species; increased recreational fishing catch; improved abundance of species of high conservation value (particularly turtles, though the magnitude of this can be dependent on model type and assumptions); improved biodiversity; a reduction in commercial fishing effort; a reduction in commercial fishery gross margins; a decline in contaminant impact; and a decrease in the risk of ship collisions and catastrophic spills. The two sector-based management strategies perform differently from each other according to only four indicator variables. The enhanced strategy leads to increased commercial catch and CPUE of high-value target species and greater recreational catch, as compared to the status quo management strategy. Enhanced management also leads to lower habitat fragmentation at local scales than status quo management. 2 These results provide a limited number of examples to demonstrate how alternative management strategies can alter natural resource use in a multiple-use setting. What they also demonstrate, however, is that the MSE framework is now developed sufficiently to provide robust evaluations of alternate management strategies, model specifications and development scenarios. Scientists and managers now have available powerful simulation tools that can assist in evaluating potential strategies, scenarios and model specification to help achieve better ecosystem level and sectoral outcomes and to guide scientific research and data collection, to best serve regional natural resource management. The calibration of the model software using real-world data allows easy identification of shortcomings in both the model
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Management strategy evaluations for multiple use management of Australias North West Shelf - Visualisation software and user guide.
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As its name suggests, management strategy evaluation (MSE) provides the opportunity for managers to evaluate the performance of alternative natural resource management strategies by comparison among indicators of social, economic and environmental performance. One of the primary difficulties faced when comparing these indicators is the sheer volume of data which needs to be assimilated. In the case of the North West Shelf Joint Environmental Management Study (NWSJEMS) the combination of three operating models, three development scenarios and three management strategies offers a total of twenty seven possible alternatives for evaluation. For the NWSJEMS an agent based computer program, InVitro, was used to model the impact of future development in the North West Shelf. As InVitro has stochastic components it was necessary to have multiple instances of model runs using the same initial model parameters, a process which creates enormous quantities of data. Two software packages were developed for dealing with NWSJEMS data. The first, ViewNWS, is specifically tailored for use by environmental managers needing to have an overall comparison of alternative management outcomes. It uses pre-packaged, processed data produced by InVitro and has a straightforward graphical user interface (GUI). The second software package, the NWS Technical User Interface, is targeted at modellers and programmers. It allows the user to visualise raw model output to allow rapid model and parameter changes.
Integration for Management of Ningaloo Marine Environmental Resources
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This project seeks to address NRP Project F: Integration for management through: #(i) Development of integrated data products and modelling frameworks relating ecological and socio-economic processes in the Ningaloo region. These products and tools will be designed to support assessment of risks associated with human uses (e.g. recreational fishing) and environmental trends (e.g. climate change) in the region. They will also be used to evaluate existing and alternative management strategies in terms of identified management objectives. #(ii) Leadership and coordination of integrated reports summarising and linking findings across the NRP and CSIRO Ningaloo Cluster, with an emphasis on relevance to management. #The funding request from NRP is $450K, which will be matched by approximately $450K in-kind from CSIRO and the University of Western Australia. Further budgetary details are provided below.
Summary of conventions, legislation affecting marine resource allocation, use, conservation and environmental protection on the North West Shelf
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The Western Australian Department of Environmental Protection (WADEP) is conducting a $2.7M North West Shelf Marine Environmental Management Study (NWSMEMS) (the Study) over four years. The Study, which began in January 1998, is developing and consolidating the technical information base, scientific understanding and predictive capability required to underpin environmental decision making in both the public and private sectors. It is drawing on the support and involvement of the scientific, industry, community and State and Commonwealth government agencies through representations on a Steering Committee and Technical Group, the provision of data, direct contributions of research and consultations on a range of environmental issues. The ultimate outcome of the Study is to recommend options for a coordinated management framework under existing legislation and policies to ensure an integrated approach to sustainable development on the North West Shelf. This report compiles and summarises existing International Conventions and Treaties, Commonwealth and State legislation, policies, strategies and other instruments relevant to marine resource allocation, use, conservation and environmental protection on the North West Shelf. It identifies the agencies in which legislation is vested and the crossjurisdictional arrangements that are in place between Commonwealth and State agencies in implementing the legislation. The report will be used in at least two ways: to ensure that there is a complete and accurate understanding of the existing legislative and management framework so that technical outputs of the Study provide the strategic and tactical information required to support the objectives of the existing management framework; and to provide the basis for evaluating the effectiveness of the existing management framework and developing options to address any identified deficiencies.
Project overview: Integrated modelling for the Western Australian marine environment - SRFME
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The aims of this project are: (1) to identify and simulate key physical factors that have significant impacts on ecological processes on shelf and coastal areas of southwestern Western Australia (WA); and (2) to develop physical, ecological, and risk assessment models that can be used to assess impacts of multiple human use on coastal and shelf environments. The project consists of five main components: analysis of large scale climate forcing, development and application of regional and coastal circulation models, development of integrated biogeochemical/ecological models, development of coastal impact models, and risk assessment. This project will link existing field data, field observations from other SRFME projects, and output from new and existing models, with management objectives and needs defined by Western Australian stakeholders. Specific models to be developed include regional and coastal oceanographic models, biogeochemical / ecological models that links physical and ecological processes, and risk assessment models that link these models to human use of the marine environment. The project intends to build on methods and models already developed and/or used by other CMR projects such as the NWSJEMS and LWRDDC projects. These models will be adapted and extended to allow assessment of impacts of multiple use and natural forcing on nutrient cycling, production and habitat quality on shelf and coastal areas in southwestern WA. These tools will range from process-based simulation models to semi-empirical models, with a focus on making efficient use of existing data, and incorporating new data from large-scale observations such as acoustic and satellite data. The main deliverables of the project include analysis of large scale climate forcing, development and application of regional and coastal scale oceanographic, integrated biogeochemical/ecological, and coastal impact models and risk assessment methods.
Review of research and data relevant to marine environmental management of Australia's North West Shelf.
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The region of interest for this study was Australias North West Shelf, extending from the inter-tidal zone to the continental shelf break, with particular focus on data relevant to the area between North West Cape and Port Hedland. The principal resource used for identification of existing data and information was the bibliography assembled by Jernakoff et al. (2006). This document provides an overview of the relevance of existing information to the North West Shelf Marine Environmental Management Study (NWSMEMS). It identifies gaps in knowledge that are likely to be important to the NWSMEMS and makes recommendations for addressing these gaps. The review presents information on the marine environment, grouped into physical, chemical and biological themes. This summary at the beginning of the document presents our major conclusions about the relevance of existing knowledge and about major gaps in information, and our recommendations for future research.
North West Shelf Joint Environmental Management Study:Software Description - InVitro (2006)
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The NWS-InVitro model is a spatially explicit agent-based biophysical simulation model with adaptive time-steps and asynchronous submodel execution. It has been developed as the basis of the NWS-JEMS management strategy evaluation study. The model simulates a range of human activity and principal features of the marine ecosystem in Australia's North West Shelf (NWS) region under a variety of management strategies. The results of the simulations are to be used to assess the relative efficacy and robustness of these strategies across a broad range of environmental and economic conditions. NWS-InVitro takes a wide range of environmental/ecosystem data and data concerning human activity as input. Data typically used to configure the ecosystem and its environment would include bathymetry, rainfall, current fields, contaminant fields, wind, and the distribution and abundance of organisms simulated as well as the usual biological parameters such as mortality and growth rates. Data relating to human activity may include control zones for vessel movement or fishing, historical catch, locations of artefacts (platforms, ports, pipelines, etc), and population time series for ports, though it is not limited to these data. Data which is characteristically produced in a simulation includes distribution and abundance of simulated species, catch/cpue history, vessel movement and conflicts, contamination effects, and a range of other data. There is a degree of randomness in some of the process models used to represent the behaviour of components of the simulation, so the output data will differ between runs. These output data sets are meant to be used as a part of large number of runs which encompasses the likely variability in the modelled systems. A typical suite of runs will run to over a half a TByte. See References for information regarding the specific configurations used with respect to parameterisation, input and output data.