Flood Risk Management Study & Plan - Main report (Part 1 of 4) This Lake Macquarie Waterway Flood Risk Management Study and Plan constitutes a review of the second and third stage of the management process, namely the August 2000 Lake Macquarie Floodplain Management Study and the July 2001 Lake Macquarie Floodplain Management Plan. This review has been prepared by consultant WMAwater for Lake Macquarie City Council and was undertaken following a review of the 1998 Lake Macquarie Flood Study, to include the June 2007 long weekend storm/flood event and incorporation of the implications of climate change. The results of this Waterway Flood Risk Management Study and Plan Review will provide the basis for the future management of flood liable foreshores areas surrounding the Lake Macquarie waterway. The study concentrates on those areas of the foreshore within the boundaries of Lake Macquarie City Council, with no investigation of land within the Wyong local government area.

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The objectives of the Flood Study are to: • Identify all the flood-related data by searching all relevant data sources. • Determine the likely extent and nature of flooding and identify potential hydraulic controls by carrying out detailed site visits of the study area. • Define existing catchment condition flood behaviour for mainstream flooding in the catchment with due consideration to the impact of Lake Macquarie levels on flooding characteristics. • Define design flood levels, velocities and flow distributions for the catchment. • Define the extent of flooding for the 200 year, 100 year, 20 year, 10 year and 5 year ARI floods and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for the catchment. • Define Provisional Flood Hazard for the flood-affected areas. • Define the Hydraulic Categories for the flood-affected areas. Two numerical modelling tools were developed: • A hydrologic model to convert rainfall on the catchment into runoff. The hydrologic model combines rainfall information with local catchment characteristics to estimate runoff hydrographs. • A hydraulic model to convert runoff hydrographs into water levels and velocities throughout the study area. The model simulates the hydraulic behaviour of the water within the study area by accounting for flow in the major channels as well as all the potential overland flowpaths, which develop when the capacity of the channels is exceeded. It relies on boundary conditions, which include the runoff hydrographs produced by the hydrologic model and the appropriate downstream boundary level from Lake Macquarie.

Main report

Summary of Management Plan (1) Most of the flood damage reduction measures considered as part of the 1993 Floodplain Management Study cannot be justified on benefit-cost considerations. They could be reconsidered if new information becomes available that leads to substantially increased benefit-cost ratios. Notwithstanding, Option 1E from the 1993 Floodplain Management Study was shown to have a Benefit-Cost ratio of about 0.4 and therefore should be retained within the Plan. This floodplain management strategy involved the voluntary raising of a 39 houses located in areas of Edgeworth, Barnsley and Boolaroo that are potentially flood affected. It is recommended that these houses be re-assessed and prioritised in terms of their suitability for house raising. Once a prioritised list has been determined, steps should be undertaken to implement the strategy. (2) The Flood and Floodplain Management Studies on which this Plan is based should be revisited. The reason for this and the process that should be followed is outlined in Appendix C. The majority of the floodplain management options considered in the 1993 study are either not viable from a cost/benefit perspective or may not be considered appropriate now. Hence, contemporary floodplain management issues need to be determined through consultation with the Committee and key stakeholders within the community. It is not clear whether any consultation took place as part of earlier studies. However, this is considered to be essential to managing future flooding issues that may arise along creek system and its floodplain. This could be achieved by distribution of a brochure similar to that included in Appendix A. (3) Development within areas defined in Figure 4 as 2A, 2B and 2C, should be able to proceed without extensive independent flood investigations, provided all appropriate requirements specified by the current Local Environment Plan are addressed (eg., those related to filling). (4) Development Restrictions Flooding/Tidal Inundation Certificates should be revised to incorporate the predicted peak level of the Probable Maximum Flood or an ‘extreme’ flood. The format of Development Restrictions Flooding/Tidal Inundation Certificates could be modified to provide more information. (5) Further investigations need to be undertaken to determine whether flood damage reduction measures can be implemented for those problem areas listed in Section 4.3.1 (6) Further hydraulic investigations should be undertaken the determine the amount of time before inundation of key areas along Cockle Creek in a typical major flood. (7) A flood liable lands DCP is to be developed specifically for the Cockle Creek catchment. The DCP would effectively serve as a revised Flood Policy and relate to the specifics of flood behaviour in the catchment (as distinct from the lake inundation flood behaviour that applies in other areas of Lake Macquarie City).

A Floodplain Risk Management Study and Plan (FRMS&P) for the Beverley Park catchment has been prepared by Cardno Lawson Treloar for Kogarah Council. The FRMS&P identify and examine options for the management of flooding within the Beverley Park catchment floodplain and is prepared in accordance with the NSW Government Floodplain Development Manual (2005). A locality plan can be found in Figure 1.1. The outline of the study area can be found in Figure 1.2. Study Context This study consists of the two stages of the multiple stages of the Floodplain Management process which includes:,

The recommended Floodplain Risk Management Plan for the Griffith CBD catchments has been prepared in accordance with the NSW Floodplain Development Manual (Reference 6) and: * Is based on a comprehensive and detailed evaluation of all factors that affect and are affected by the use of flood prone land; and * Provides a long-term path for the future development of the community. Griffith is located approximately 450 km north of Melbourne and 560 km west of Sydney in the heart of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA). The CBD and residential areas of Griffith are located at the base of the McPherson Ranges (see Figure 1). Griffith and its surrounding villages of Yenda, Yoogali, Hanwood, Bilbul and Beelbangera lie within the Main Drain “J” catchment, which together with its network of drainage channels delivers runoff to Mirrool Creek. The Griffith CBD catchment has an area of approximately 9 km2. The upper part of the catchment is steep and covered in scattered timber and bushland. South of the bushland area the urban area begins and continues south to Wakaden St and the Temora-Roto Railway Line. This area is predominantly low density residential development. Griffith CBD lies to the south of the railway line, and is characterised by commercial and light industrial land uses. At the downstream extents of the CBD is the Main Canal which is raised above normal ground levels and is consequently a substantial obstruction to overland flow. The City of Griffith is not located on the banks of a major river system and therefore does not experience mainstream flooding as occurs at other centres within the Murrumbidgee River catchment for example Wagga Wagga. However, Griffith and its surrounding areas are affected by high volume rainfall events and also from flooding from the Main Drain J system. In the past, frequent flooding has occurred throughout the commercial areas of Griffith including Yambil Street, even in small rainfall events less than the 6 month ARI for example. Studies have indicated that this flooding has been due to a combination of catchment runoff, blockage and/or insufficient capacity of the sub-surface drainage systems and the associated siphon drainage systems, as well as the elevated railway and canal embankments that impede downstream overland flow paths. Within the study area flows are predominantly distributed and shallow at the upstream or northern sections of the CBD catchment and runoff generally ponds behind the various embankments that tend to be aligned normal to general flow direction such as the Main Canal and railway line, before being gradually discharged through the siphon outlets located under the Main Canal at the downstream boundary of the study area. The Flood Study (Reference 1) also found that the actual flow at the siphons was largely restricted by the upstream drainage system.

Floodplain Management Plan Report and figures. This Plan provides the basis for the future management of flood liable lands adjacent to the lake in the Lake Macquarie City Council area. The Plan was developed from the Lake Macquarie Flood Study (Part 1 - January 1998 and Part 2 - April 1998) and the Lake Macquarie Floodplain Management Study (August 2000). The Lake Macquarie Flood Study determined design flood levels for the 1%, 2% and 5% AEP floods and an Extreme flood event. It examined the still water level and also the effect of wave runup along the foreshore. The design events represent floods which have a certain probability of occurrence. The “1% AEP” or “1 in 100" flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equalled or exceeded in any year. On a LONG TERM average it will happen once in every 100 years, but it is wrong to think it can only happen once in a century. Because floods are random events there is still a 1 in 100 chance of such a flood occurring next year no matter what happens this year.

Introduction The Dora Creek Flood Risk Management Plan has been prepared for Lake Macquarie City Council (Council) in accordance with the NSW Floodplain Development Manual (April 2005 - Reference 1) and the August 2010 Flood Risk Management Guide – Incorporating sea level rise benchmarks in flood risk assessment (Reference 4) and: Is based on a comprehensive and detailed evaluation of factors that affect and are affected by the use of flood prone land; Represents the considered opinion of the local community on how to best manage its flood risk and its flood prone land; and Provides a long-term path for the future development of the community. The Dora Creek catchment is located on the western side of Lake Macquarie waterway, 30 km south-west of Newcastle and 120 km north of Sydney. Dora Creek has a catchment area of approximately 238 km2 and is the largest catchment flowing into the Lake Macquarie waterway which has a total catchment of 648 km2 (Figure 1). The study area focuses on the existing township of Dora Creek and includes the townships of Cooranbong and Avondale, where new and planned rural and urban developments are proposed within the floodplain. The upper limit of the study area extends above Freemans Drive to Cooranbong and downstream to the confluence of Dora Creek with the Lake Macquarie waterway. There are three main tributaries within the catchment with Dora Creek being joined by Jigadee Creek at Cooranbong and then Stockton Creek before draining into Lake Macquarie waterway at Bonnells Bay and Lake Eraring. Watercourses within the catchment area and above the tidal limit are narrow; Dora Creek is typically less than 15 m wide upstream of Freemans Drive. Below the tidal limit, the creeks become broader with Dora Creek varying from a width of 50m at the Sydney to Newcastle Freeway to 100m where it forms a delta into Lake Macquarie waterway. Upstream of the delta the Eraring Power station draws cooling water for steam condensation from Bonnells Bay, which passes under Dora Creek through a concrete tunnel and open canal.

Objective This Floodplain Management Study defines the nature and extent of the flood hazard in the three catchments. It also identifies and assesses strategies and measures aimed at reducing the impact of flooding on both existing and future development, and measures to prevent future development from making flooding worse. The results of this Floodplain Management Study are being used to prepare a Floodplain Management Plan (FPMP). The objective of the FPMP is to establish a cost-effective floodplain management strategy for the area and to recommend a programme for implementation of the Plan. The Study Brief is attached as Appendix A. What is in the Study The Floodplain Management Study and Plan will not totally eliminate flooding. Flooding is a natural phenomenon which cannot be fully controlled by human works. In fact, excessive artificial controls are likely to be very costly and to have adverse environmental effects. Therefore the Floodplain Management Study and Plan aim to provide a package of best management practices which give a balance between reducing flood hazard and flood damages, allowing appropriate development, and protecting and enhancing the environment of the floodplain. This Report has been divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction (page 1) Establishes the context and basis for the plan. Section 2: Background (page 5) Describes the study process, including previous studies, and the background technical information which is available. It includes a review of the previous Muddy Creek Flood Studies. Section 3: Existing Flood Behaviour (page 15) Summarises the available data and modelling results concerning flood behaviour. Section 4: Social and Economic Impacts of Flooding (page 23) Examines the potential flood damages and other social and economic effects of flooding for a range of flood events, including an extreme flood. Section 5: Choosing the Designated Flood (page 28) Discusses the issued to be considered by Council in choosing a designated flood for Rockdale, and recommends that the 1% AEP flood be adopted. Section 6: Available Floodplain Management Options (page 35) Describes in broad terms the range of flood mitigation and other management works and other measures available to address the existing, future and residual flooding problems in the study area. Sections 7, 8 and 9: Options for Management Areas (page 48) These three sections describe in detail, for the Muddy Creek, Spring St Drain and Scarborough Ponds catchments respectively, the feasible options and their likely benefits and costs. Section 10: Assessment of Management Options (page 86) Reviews the financial aspects and the justification for the proposed management measures, identifies priorities and possible sources of funding. These issues will be further addressed in the future Floodplain Management Plan. Section 11: References (page 90) Technical detail which supports the main report is provided in the Appendices, in Volume 2.