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Regional Ensemble Prediction System
The Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 3 days into the future. The probabilistic predictions are based on 20 ensemble members that are perturbed through their initial and boundary conditions as well as physical tendencies. A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage includes Canada and the United States. Data is available at a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Data is available on ten vertical levels. Predictions are performed four times a day.
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Global Ensemble Prediction System
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The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future (up to 32 days once a week on Thursdays at 00UTC). The GEPS produces different outlooks (scenarios) to estimate the forecast uncertainties due to the nonlinear (chaotic) behaviour of the atmosphere. The probabilistic predictions are based on an ensemble of 20 scenarios that differ in their initial conditions, their physics parameters which are randomly perturbed by a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) method, and the stochastic perturbations (kinetic energy). A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Weather elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. The horizontal resolution of the system is 0.35 degree (about 39 km at equator). The system has 84 vertical levels for the forecasts and for the analyses. Predictions are performed twice a day.
Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System Seasonal Forecasts
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The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the beginning of a month out to up to 12 months into the future, resulting in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. Data is available on a grid at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees and 1 degree and for a few selected vertical levels. In addition, forecast probabilities for below, near, and above normal temperature and precipitation are available at both resolutions. Predictions and corresponding hindcast are made available monthly.
Regional Deterministic Prediction System
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The Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at deterministic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 84 hours into the future. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage includes Canada and the United States. Data is available at horizontal resolution of about 10 km up to 33 vertical levels. Predictions are performed four times a day.
High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System - Continental
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The High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at deterministic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 48 hours into the future. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage of the system is most of Canada. Data is available over specific areas in the MSC Datamart and the whole coverage is available in the MSC GeoMet web services. Data is available at a horizontal resolution of about 2.5 km up to 31 vertical levels. Predictions are performed up to four times a day.
Weather Elements on Grid based on the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System
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Weather Elements on Grid (WEonG) based on the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) is a post-processing system designed to compute the weather elements required by different forecast programs (public, marine, aviation, air quality, etc.). This system amalgamates numerical and post-processed data using various diagnostic approaches. Hourly concepts are produced from different algorithms using outputs from the pan-Canadian High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS-NAT).
Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System Hindcast (CanSIPS Hindcast)
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The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the beginning of a month out to up to 12 months into the future, resulting in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. Data is available on a grid at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees and 1 degree and for a few selected vertical levels. In addition, forecast probabilities for below, near, and above normal temperature and precipitation are available at both resolutions. Predictions and corresponding hindcast are made available monthly.
Regional Ensemble Wave Prediction System
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The Regional Ensemble Wave Prediction System (REWPS) uses the third generation spectral wave model WaveWatch III® (WW3) to arrive at probabilistic predictions of wave elements from the current day out to 3 days into the future. The probabilistic predictions are based on 20 ensemble members and a control member that are forced by the 10 meters winds from the Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS). An ice forecast from the Water Cycle Prediction System of the Great Lakes (WCPS) is used by the model to dampen or suppress wave growth in areas covered respectively with 25% to 75% and more than 75% ice. WW3 (WAVEWATCH III® Development Group, WW3DG 2019) is a third generation spectral wave prediction model that solves the evolution of the energy balance equation for the 2-D wave energy spectrum without any prior assumptions on the shape of the spectrum. The WW3 model has been implemented by a growing number of national operational forecasting centres over the last several years. The REWPS data are available on the Great Lakes domain.
Regional Ensemble Storm Surge Prediction System
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The Regional Ensemble storm Surge Prediction System (RESPS) produces storm surge forecasts using the DalCoast ocean model. DalCoast (Bernier and Thompson 2015) is a storm surge forecast system for the east coast of Canada based on the depth-integrated, barotropic and linearized form of the Princeton Ocean Model. The model is forced by the 10 meters winds and sea level pressure from the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS).