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Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System Seasonal Forecasts
The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the beginning of a month out to up to 12 months into the future, resulting in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. Data is available on a grid at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees and 1 degree and for a few selected vertical levels. In addition, forecast probabilities for below, near, and above normal temperature and precipitation are available at both resolutions. Predictions and corresponding hindcast are made available monthly.
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Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System Hindcast (CanSIPS Hindcast)
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The Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the beginning of a month out to up to 12 months into the future, resulting in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. Data is available on a grid at a horizontal resolution of 2.5 degrees and 1 degree and for a few selected vertical levels. In addition, forecast probabilities for below, near, and above normal temperature and precipitation are available at both resolutions. Predictions and corresponding hindcast are made available monthly.
Regional Ensemble Prediction System
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The Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 3 days into the future. The probabilistic predictions are based on 20 ensemble members that are perturbed through their initial and boundary conditions as well as physical tendencies. A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage includes Canada and the United States. Data is available at a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Data is available on ten vertical levels. Predictions are performed four times a day.
Global Ensemble Prediction System
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The Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at probabilistic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 16 days into the future (up to 32 days once a week on Thursdays at 00UTC). The GEPS produces different outlooks (scenarios) to estimate the forecast uncertainties due to the nonlinear (chaotic) behaviour of the atmosphere. The probabilistic predictions are based on an ensemble of 20 scenarios that differ in their initial conditions, their physics parameters which are randomly perturbed by a Stochastic Parameter Perturbation (SPP) method, and the stochastic perturbations (kinetic energy). A control member that is not perturbed is also available. Weather elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage is global. The horizontal resolution of the system is 0.35 degree (about 39 km at equator). The system has 84 vertical levels for the forecasts and for the analyses. Predictions are performed twice a day.
Regional Deterministic Prediction System
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The Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at deterministic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 84 hours into the future. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage includes Canada and the United States. Data is available at horizontal resolution of about 10 km up to 33 vertical levels. Predictions are performed four times a day.
Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis
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The Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (RDPA) produces a best estimate of the amount of precipitation that occurred over recent past periods of 6 or 24 hours. The estimate integrates data from in situ precipitation gauge measurements, weather radar, satellite imagery and numerical weather prediction models. Geographic coverage is North America (Canada, United States and Mexico). Data is available at horizontal resolution of 10 km. Data is only available for the surface level. Analysis data is made available four times a day for 6h intervals and twice a day for the 24h interval. A preliminary estimate is available approximately 1h after the end of the accumulation period, and revised 7h after in order to assimilate gauge data arriving later.
High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System - Continental
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The High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) carries out physics calculations to arrive at deterministic predictions of atmospheric elements from the current day out to 48 hours into the future. Atmospheric elements include temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, humidity and others. This product contains raw numerical results of these calculations. Geographical coverage of the system is most of Canada. Data is available over specific areas in the MSC Datamart and the whole coverage is available in the MSC GeoMet web services. Data is available at a horizontal resolution of about 2.5 km up to 31 vertical levels. Predictions are performed up to four times a day.
High Resolution Deterministic Precipitation Analysis
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The Canadian Precipitation Analysis System (CaPA) produces a best estimate of 6 and 24 hour precipitation amounts. This objective estimate integrates data from in situ precipitation gauge measurements, radar QPEs and a trial field generated by a numerical weather prediction system. In order to produce the High Resolution Deterministic Precipitation Analysis (HRDPA) at a resolution of 2.5 km, CaPA is connected to the continental HRDPS for its trial field. CaPA-HRDPA produces four analyses of 6 hour amounts per day, valid at synoptic hours (00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC) and two 24 hour analysis valid at 06 and 12 UTC. A preliminary production is started 1 hour after valid time and a final one is launched 7 hours later. This translates into a production of 12 analyses per day.
Coastal Ice-Ocean Prediction System for the West Coast of Canada (CIOPS-West)
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The Coastal Ice Ocean Prediction System (CIOPS) provides a 48 hour ocean and ice forecast over different domains (East, West, Salish Sea) four times a day at 1/36° resolution. A pseudo-analysis component is forced at the ocean boundaries by the Regional Ice Ocean Prediction System (RIOPS) forecasts and spectrally nudged to the RIOPS solution in the deep ocean. Fields from the pseudo-analysis are used to initialize the 00Z forecast, whilst the 06, 12 and 18Z forecasts use a restart files saved at hour 6 from the previous forecast. The atmospheric fluxes for both the pseudo-analysis and forecast components are provided by the High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) blended both spatially and temporally with either the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) (for CIOPS-East) or an uncoupled component of the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) at 10km horizontal resolution (for CIOPS-West) for areas not covered by the HRDPS.