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Spatial density models of cetaceans in the Canadian Pacific estimated from 2018 ship-based surveys
Many cetacean species were depleted in Canadian Pacific waters by commercial whaling, which ended in 1967. Although some populations have since shown evidence of recovery, there is limited information about the current abundance and geographic distribution of many species, particularly in difficult-to-survey offshore regions. This lack of baseline data hampers conservation status assessments, including estimating population-level impacts of anthropogenic activities. From July to early September 2018, we conducted ship-based surveys of cetaceans throughout the coastal and offshore waters of British Columbia. Density surface modelling (DSM) was used to produce spatially-explicit abundance estimates and distribution maps for four commonly-encountered cetacean species: the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae), fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus), Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) and harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). We estimated abundances of 7,030 (95% CI = 5,733-8,620) humpback whales, 2,893 (95% CI = 2,171-3,855) fin whales, 23,692 (95% CI = 19,121-29,356) Dall’s porpoises and 5,207 (95% CI = 2,769-9,793) harbour porpoises throughout Canadian Pacific waters. Our results complement design-based abundance estimates calculated from the same survey data, and can be compared with past habitat modelling studies and historical whaling catch data to estimate the extent of recovery of previously harvested populations. The return of these predators to habitats from which they were previously extirpated will have important ecosystem-level implications. The DSM results can contribute to calculations of Potential Biological Removal estimates to inform fisheries bycatch, as well as providing spatial data that can be used to assess the risk of entanglements, ship strikes, acoustic disturbance, and other anthropogenic threats. This dataset contains model-predicted densities of four commonly-encountered cetacean species (humpback whale, fin whale, Dall's porpoise and harbour porpoise) that were estimated using ship-based, visual survey data collected during the Pacific Region International Survey of Marine Megafauna (PRISMM) in July-August of 2018. Abundance of each species (where relevant) is provided for three gridded strata (25 km2 cell size) in the Pacific Region: one for the offshore, extending to Canada’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and two for coastal areas (the North Coast and the Salish Sea).
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Habitat-based Models of Cetacean Density and Distribution in the Central North Pacific, 2015
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The central North Pacific Ocean includes diverse temperate and tropical pelagic habitats. Studies of the abundance and distribution of cetaceans within these dynamic marine ecosystems have generally been patchy or conducted at coarse spatial and temporal scales, limiting their utility for pelagic conservation planning. Habitat-based density models provide a tool for identifying pelagic areas of importance to cetaceans, because model predictions are spatially explicit. In this study, we present habitat-based models of cetacean density that were developed and validated for the central North Pacific. Spatial predictions of cetacean densities and measures of uncertainty were derived based on data collected during 15 large-scale shipboard cetacean and ecosystem assessment surveys conducted from 1997 to 2012. We developed generalized additive models using static and remotely sensed dynamic habitat variables, including distance to land, sea-surface temperature (SST), standard deviation of SST, surface chlorophyll concentration, seasurface height (SSH), and SSH root-mean-square variation. The resulting models, developed using new grid-based prediction methods, provide finer scale information on the distribution and density of cetaceans than previously available. Habitat-based abundance estimates around Hawaii are similar to those derived from standard line-transect analyses of the same data and provide enhanced spatial resolution to inform management and conservation of pelagic cetacean species.
Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the California Current Ecosystem, 2016
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We developed predictive habitat-based models of cetacean density based on seven shipboard cetacean surveys conducted during summer and fall between 1991 and 2009 in the California Current Ecosystem. Models were built for 14 taxonomically diverse species/species groups including striped dolphin, short-beaked common dolphin, long-beaked common dolphin, Pacific white-sided dolphin, northern right whale dolphin, Risso's dolphin, common bottlenose dolphin, Dall's porpoise, sperm whale, fin whale, humpback whale, blue whale, Baird's beaked whale and a small beaked whale guild (Mesoplondon spp. and Cuvier's beaked whale).
Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the Hawaiian Islands EEZ, 2019
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A predictive habitat-based model of humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) density for waters within the Hawaiian Islands Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was developed based on systematic ship survey data collected in waters of the Main Hawaiian Islands in February 2009. Potential habitat variables included bathymetric depth and a suite of dynamic outputs from the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model. The final habitat model exhibited high explanatory power based on established metrics and comparison of model-predicted absolute density to observed patterns of relative density around the Main Hawaiian Islands. The model was then used to create spatial predictions of humpback whale density and measures of uncertainty for the entire Hawaiian Islands EEZ. Predictions outside the original survey area were validated based on previously published predictions of relative density throughout the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The resulting model provides spatially explicit density predictions at a scale of approximately 9km x 9km kilometers and provides a tool for assessing potential impacts to humpback whales within the Hawaiian Islands EEZ.
Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the Hawaiian Islands EEZ, 2020
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To develop improved and updated species distribution models (SDMs) and to update cetacean stock abundance estimates for waters of the US Hawaiian EEZ, sighting data from the Hawaiian Islands Cetacean and Ecosystem Assessment Survey (HICEAS) 2017 were combined with previous line-transect survey data collected within the study area to create a modeling database spanning the period from 2002 to 2017. The majority of these data were from the two previous HICEAS efforts, the first in 2002 and the second in 2010. In contrast to previous modeling efforts that included survey data from a broader region of the central Pacific Ocean, the current SDMs were built only with survey data collected within waters of the Hawaiian EEZ. Habitat models were developed to derive spatially-explicit estimates of species density specific to the Hawaiian EEZ based on previously established methods that allow for the incorporation of segment-specific estimates of detection probability. Potential habitat variables included bathymetric depth, distance to islands, and a suite of dynamic surface and subsurface outputs from an ocean circulation model. The habitat-based models of cetacean density developed in this study represent an improvement over previous models because they more accurately account for variation in detection probabilities, provide finer-scale density predictions (~9km x 9km grid resolution), and better account for uncertainty in the resulting study area abundance estimates. In addition, they include dynamic subsurface variables that were not available for the previous models. Further, increases in sample sizes allowed for the development of a new habitat model for Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus).
Modeled prevalence of seabirds and relative abundance of cetaceans in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean from 1980-04-01 to 1988-10-01 (NCEI Accession 0130025)
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This data set is a compilation of modeled seabird prevalence predictions for a selection of species including Razorbill (Alca torda), Greater Shearwater (Puffinus gravis), Wilson’s Storm-petrel (Oceanites oceanicus), Northern Gannet (Morus bassanus), and all auks (Alcidae), and relative abundance of cetaceans including humpback whale (megaptera novaeangliae), right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis), and fin whale (Balaenoptera musculus). These data were generated to improve the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary management plan review and coastal zone management decisions in the Gulf of Maine and surrounding area. These geospatial data sets are part of a large compilation of data provided in the referenced NCCOS (2006) technical memorandum.
Winter/Spring Habitat-based Density Models for Three Cetacean Species off Southern California
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We used a well-established Generalized Additive Modeling framework to develop cetacean SDMs based on 20 California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) shipboard surveys conducted during winter and spring between 2005 and 2015. Models were fit for short-beaked common dolphin (Delphinus delphis delphis), Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli), and humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae). Model performance was evaluated based on a variety of established metrics, including the percentage of explained deviance, ratios of observed to predicted density, and visual inspection of predicted and observed distributions. Final models were used to produce spatial grids of average species density and spatially-explicit measures of uncertainty. Results provide the first fine scale (10 km) density predictions for these species during the cool seasons and reveal distribution patterns that are markedly different from summer/fall, thus providing novel insights into species ecology and quantitative data for the seasonal assessment of potential anthropogenic impacts.
Predictive Models of Cetacean Densities in the California Current Ecosystem, 2020
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Species distribution models (SDMs) are important management tools for highly mobile marine species because they provide spatially and temporally explicit information on animal distribution. Two prevalent modeling frameworks used to develop SDMs for marine species are Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs), but comparative studies have rarely been conducted; most rely on presence-only data; and few have explored how features such as species distribution characteristics affect model performance. Since the majority of marine species BRTs have been used to predict habitat suitability, we first compared BRTs to GAMs that used presence/absence as the response variable. We then compared results from these habitat suitability models to GAMs that predict species density (animals km-2) because density models built with a subset of the data used here have previously received extensive validation. We compared both the explanatory power (i.e., model goodness-of-fit) and predictive power (i.e., performance on a novel dataset) of the GAMs and BRTs for a taxonomically diverse suite of cetacean species using a robust set of systematic survey data (1991-2014) within the California Current Ecosystem. Both BRTs and GAMs were successful at describing overall distribution patterns throughout the study area for the majority of species considered, but when predicting on novel data, the density GAMs exhibited substantially greater predictive power than both the presence/absence GAMs and BRTs, likely due to both the different response variables and fitting algorithms. Our results provide an improved understanding of some of the strengths and limitations of models developed using these two methods. These results can be used by modelers developing SDMs and resource managers tasked with the spatial management of marine species to determine the best modeling technique for their question of interest.
Southeast Alaska cetacean vessel surveys conducted by Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Mammals Laboratory from 1991-04-20 to 2012-07-20 (NCEI Accession 0140931)
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In 1991, NMML initiated cetacean studies with vessel coverage throughout inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Between 1991 and 1993, line-transect methodology was used to: 1) obtain population estimates of both harbor porpoise and Dalls porpoise, 2) establish a baseline for detecting trends in porpoise abundance, and 3) define porpoise distributional patterns and seasonality. Three line-transect surveys were carried out each year spanning spring, summer, and fall. To update abundance and trends for both harbor porpoise and Dalls porpoise, NMML once again initiated line-transect surveys in 2006 (spring and summer), 2007 (spring, summer and fall), 2010 (summer and fall), 2011 (summer and fall), and 2012 (summer) using methods comparable to those used in the early 1990s.
Species Distribution: Cetaceans - Hawaii
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This dataset contains a collection of known point locations of cetaceans (dolphins and whales) identified either via automated satellite tracking of tagged organisms or through direct human observation via shipborne and aerial surveys. This can be useful for assessing species abundance, population structure, habitat use, and behavior. This collection is aggregated from multiple data sources and survey periods. Each data point contains attributes for further information about the time and source of the observation. This dataset was compiled by the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) and may be updated in the future if additional data sources are acquired.
Species Distribution: Fin Whale - Hawaii
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This dataset contains a collection of two known point locations of fin whales identified through direct human observation via shipborne and aerial surveys in 2012 and 1998, respectively. This collection is aggregated from multiple data sources and survey periods listed below. Each data point contains attributes for further information about the time and source of the observation. This dataset was compiled by the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) and may be updated in the future if additional data sources are acquired. Cascadia Research Collective (CRC) has been undertaking shipborne surveys for cetaceans in Hawaiian waters since 2000. In addition, Dr. Joseph Mobley of the Marine Mammal Research Consultants (MMRC) led aerial surveys for cetaceans in Hawaiian waters from 1993-2003.
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