Restoration of the Florida Everglades, a substantial wetland ecosystem within the United States, is one of the largest ongoing restoration projects in the world. Decision-makers and managers within the Everglades ecosystem rely on ecological models forecasting indicator wildlife response to changes in the management of water flows within the system. One such indicator of ecosystem health, the presence of wading bird communities on the landscape, is currently assessed using three species distribution models that assume perfect detection and report output on different scales that are challenging to compare against one another. We sought to use current advancements in species distribution modeling to improve models of Everglades wading bird distribution. Using a joint species distribution model that accounted for imperfect detection, we modeled the presence of nine species of wading bird simultaneously in response to annual hydrologic conditions and landscape characteristics within the Everglades system. Our resulting model improved upon the previous model in three key ways: 1) the model predicts probability of occupancy for the nine species on a scale of 0-1, making the output more intuitive and easily comparable for managers and decision-makers that must consider the responses of several species simultaneously; 2) through joint species modeling, we were able to consider rarer species within the modeling that otherwise are detected in too few numbers to fit as individual models; and 3) the model explicitly allows detection probability of species to be less than 1 which can reduce bias in the site occupancy estimates. These improvements are essential as Everglades restoration continues and managers require models that consider the impacts of water management on key indicator wildlife such as the wading bird community.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. The models of particular interest to the South Florida Water Management District for planning for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) Reservoir were: (1) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator, (2) Florida apple snail (native) population model (EverSnail), (3) Wader Distribution Evaluation Modeling (WADEM), (4) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (5) American alligator production probability (i.e., habitat suitability index (HSI)). We ran these models using hydrologic conditions (provided by the South Florida Water Management District, see Process Steps section below) for baseline and future conditions for the EAR.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. The models of particular interest to the South Florida Water Management District for planning for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) Reservoir were: (1) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator, (2) Florida apple snail (native) population model (EverSnail), (3) Wader Distribution Evaluation Modeling (WADEM), (4) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (5) American alligator production probability (i.e., habitat suitability index (HSI)). We ran these models using hydrologic conditions (provided by the South Florida Water Management District, see Process Steps section below) for baseline and future conditions for the EAR.

One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is occurring in the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida's large urban population, and provides water for both agriculture and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades encompasses the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted by climate-induced sea-level rise. However, currently, many project planning studies do not formally incorporate the potential impacts of sea-level rise when evaluating restoration plan outcomes. Resource managers and project planners require methods and tools to confidently incorporate scenarios of sea-level rise into their evaluations. This effort demonstrates how incorporating sea-level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration project planning can help managers decide whether projects will maintain or improve the ecological integrity of this critical system and ensure water availability for wildlife and humans. The following model outputs were generated to explore how sea-level rise may impact ecological models: two sea-level rise scenarios (an intermediate scenario of 53 cm and a high scenario of 152 cm) using the BISECT hydrodynamic model, and the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis vegetation sub-model outputs generated using the baseline, intermediate, and high sea-level rise hydrologic scenarios. We also provide R code used to visualize the outputs.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density with days since drydown (DSD) metric, and (6) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). This is round 5 of ecological modeling for the WERP.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density with days since drydown (DSD) metric, and (6) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). This is round 5 of ecological modeling for the WERP.

Data Release from the High-Flow Field Experiments to Inform Everglades Restoration: Experimental Data 2010 to 2018. Data were obtained from field sites located in the Everglades between two canals (L-67A and L-67C) from 2010 to 2018. During this time, five major controlled flow releases occurred by opening the culvert S152 on canal L-67A. Data consist of water velocity (continuous and discrete), water levels (continuous and discrete), suspended sediment concentration, load and flux (discrete), suspended phosphorus concentration, load and flux (discrete), grainsize distribution (continuous and discrete), biogeochemistry (discrete), water quality (continuous), temperature (continuous) and vegetation (discrete).

Data Release from the High-Flow Field Experiments to Inform Everglades Restoration: Experimental Data 2010 to 2018. Data were obtained from field sites located in the Everglades between two canals (L-67A and L-67C) from 2010 to 2018. During this time, five major controlled flow releases occurred by opening the culvert S152 on canal L-67A. Data consist of water velocity (continuous and discrete), water levels (continuous and discrete), suspended sediment concentration, load and flux (discrete), suspended phosphorus concentration, load and flux (discrete), grainsize distribution (continuous and discrete), biogeochemistry (discrete), water quality (continuous), temperature (continuous) and vegetation (discrete).

The Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) is a series of connected Bayesian networks that models the landscape-scale response of indicators of Everglades ecosystem health to changes in hydrology and salinity on the landscape. Using the uncertainty built into each network, it also produces surfaces of vulnerability in relation to user-defined ‘ideal’ outcomes. This dataset includes the code used to build the modules and generate outputs of module outcome probabilities and landscape vulnerability.

The Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) is a series of connected Bayesian networks that models the landscape-scale response of indicators of Everglades ecosystem health to changes in hydrology and salinity on the landscape. Using the uncertainty built into each network, it also produces surfaces of vulnerability in relation to user-defined ‘ideal’ outcomes. This dataset includes the code used to build the modules and generate outputs of module outcome probabilities and landscape vulnerability.