Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. The models of particular interest to the South Florida Water Management District for planning for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) Reservoir were: (1) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator, (2) Florida apple snail (native) population model (EverSnail), (3) Wader Distribution Evaluation Modeling (WADEM), (4) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (5) American alligator production probability (i.e., habitat suitability index (HSI)). We ran these models using hydrologic conditions (provided by the South Florida Water Management District, see Process Steps section below) for baseline and future conditions for the EAR.

Restoration of the Florida Everglades, a substantial wetland ecosystem within the United States, is one of the largest ongoing restoration projects in the world. Decision-makers and managers within the Everglades ecosystem rely on ecological models forecasting indicator wildlife response to changes in the management of water flows within the system. One such indicator of ecosystem health, the presence of wading bird communities on the landscape, is currently assessed using three species distribution models that assume perfect detection and report output on different scales that are challenging to compare against one another. We sought to use current advancements in species distribution modeling to improve models of Everglades wading bird distribution. Using a joint species distribution model that accounted for imperfect detection, we modeled the presence of nine species of wading bird simultaneously in response to annual hydrologic conditions and landscape characteristics within the Everglades system. Our resulting model improved upon the previous model in three key ways: 1) the model predicts probability of occupancy for the nine species on a scale of 0-1, making the output more intuitive and easily comparable for managers and decision-makers that must consider the responses of several species simultaneously; 2) through joint species modeling, we were able to consider rarer species within the modeling that otherwise are detected in too few numbers to fit as individual models; and 3) the model explicitly allows detection probability of species to be less than 1 which can reduce bias in the site occupancy estimates. These improvements are essential as Everglades restoration continues and managers require models that consider the impacts of water management on key indicator wildlife such as the wading bird community.

Restoration of the Florida Everglades, a substantial wetland ecosystem within the United States, is one of the largest ongoing restoration projects in the world. Decision-makers and managers within the Everglades ecosystem rely on ecological models forecasting indicator wildlife response to changes in the management of water flows within the system. One such indicator of ecosystem health, the presence of wading bird communities on the landscape, is currently assessed using three species distribution models that assume perfect detection and report output on different scales that are challenging to compare against one another. We sought to use current advancements in species distribution modeling to improve models of Everglades wading bird distribution. Using a joint species distribution model that accounted for imperfect detection, we modeled the presence of nine species of wading bird simultaneously in response to annual hydrologic conditions and landscape characteristics within the Everglades system. Our resulting model improved upon the previous model in three key ways: 1) the model predicts probability of occupancy for the nine species on a scale of 0-1, making the output more intuitive and easily comparable for managers and decision-makers that must consider the responses of several species simultaneously; 2) through joint species modeling, we were able to consider rarer species within the modeling that otherwise are detected in too few numbers to fit as individual models; and 3) the model explicitly allows detection probability of species to be less than 1 which can reduce bias in the site occupancy estimates. These improvements are essential as Everglades restoration continues and managers require models that consider the impacts of water management on key indicator wildlife such as the wading bird community.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density with days since drydown (DSD) metric, and (6) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). This is round 5 of ecological modeling for the WERP.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density with days since drydown (DSD) metric, and (6) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). This is round 5 of ecological modeling for the WERP.

One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is occurring in the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida's large urban population, and provides water for both agriculture and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades encompasses the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted by climate-induced sea-level rise. However, currently, many project planning studies do not formally incorporate the potential impacts of sea-level rise when evaluating restoration plan outcomes. Resource managers and project planners require methods and tools to confidently incorporate scenarios of sea-level rise into their evaluations. This effort demonstrates how incorporating sea-level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration project planning can help managers decide whether projects will maintain or improve the ecological integrity of this critical system and ensure water availability for wildlife and humans. The following model outputs were generated to explore how sea-level rise may impact ecological models: two sea-level rise scenarios (an intermediate scenario of 53 cm and a high scenario of 152 cm) using the BISECT hydrodynamic model, and the Everglades Vulnerability Analysis vegetation sub-model outputs generated using the baseline, intermediate, and high sea-level rise hydrologic scenarios. We also provide R code used to visualize the outputs.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions; ecological models were developed by JEM to evaluate potential effects of restoration projects on natural resources in the impacted areas. The Biscayne Bay and Southeastern Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (BBSEER) Project is part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). A goal of BBSEER is to identify potential opportunities for ecosystem restoration of nearshore conditions in Biscayne Bay, Card Sound, Barnes Sound, the Model Lands, the Southern Glades, and other wetlands adjacent to these water bodies. The following model outputs were provided by JEM to aid in evaluations of alternative restoration plans: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index, (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) American alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), (4) Small-sized freshwater fish density, (5) Days since drydown (DSD) (6) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (7) EverWaders wading bird occupancy model, (8) Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) vegetation types, and (9) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Viewer. This is Round 3 of the BBSEER; JEM did not provide ecological model outputs for BBSEER Rounds 1 and 2.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. JEM is a partnership among federal and state agencies, universities, and other organizations. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Apple Snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (6) American alligator habitat suitability index (HSI). This is round 1 (of 4) for the WERP.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. JEM is a partnership among federal and state agencies, universities, and other organizations. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Apple Snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (6) American alligator habitat suitability index (HSI). This is round 1 (of 4) for the WERP.

Ecological models facilitate evaluation and assessment of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. However, the provision of useful and accessible models is a challenge because there is often a disconnect between model output and its use by decision makers. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) meets this challenge by providing ecological model output tailored to management decisions. JEM is a partnership among federal and state agencies, universities and other organizations. Ecological models (i.e., ecological planning tools) were developed and used by JEM during the Central Everglades Planning Project to evaluate potential effects to natural resources in the impacted areas. There is a desire by the planning agencies and bureaus involved in the Western Everglades Restoration Project (WERP) to use these same tools for WERP evaluations of alternative restoration plans. The models of particular interest to the WERP Ecological Subteam are: (1) Marl Prairie Habitat Suitability Index in conjunction with the (2) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper, (3) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail), (4) Wading bird distribution and evaluation models (WADEM), (5) Small-sized freshwater fish density, and (6) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI; includes Breeding Potential metric). This is round 4 (of 4) in the WERP.