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GLA Demography - Housing-led population projections
The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant. Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions. All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here. Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data). Documentation page Back to projections homepage
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GLA demography team - Population projections documentation
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The GLA Interim 2021-based population projections (January 2023) comprise both trend-based variant projections and housing-led scenario projections. This dataset contains the detailed methodology documentation for the model and is published alongside the population projections data to assist users in understanding the projections and identifying which set of projections is most appropriate for their needs. The projections themselves can be downloaded here: Population and Household Projections
GLA Demography - Employment-led population projections
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GLA Demography has published 2016-based employment-led projections for London which provide population projections which are consistent with the employment projection scenarios published by GLA Economics. However, this should be viewed as an experimental output which may not be updated in the future. In addition to the raw data for this set of population projections, we have also produced a methodology document which explains how these projections were produced. GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.
GLA Demography - Ethnic group population projections
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The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.
GLA Demography - Household projection data for modelling
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The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website. Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme. For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk