The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website. Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme. For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex. The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates. Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here * 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs. Documentation page Back to projections homepage

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant. Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions. All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here. Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data). Documentation page Back to projections homepage

The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.

The GLA Demography Team offers a bespoke population projection service to London local authorities. Boroughs can request population projections based on their own choice of assumptions about future housing delivery. These assumptions are submitted to the team via a standard template. The resulting projections are referred to as the Borough Preferred Option (or BPO) and are commonly used to help support local planning and service delivery. The GLA does not make the BPO projections and submitted housing trajectories publicly available or share them with anyone other than the commissioning borough. Boroughs wishing to publish BPO projections themselves are free to do so. This service is offered as an optional, free of charge service to London authorities, and is intended to provide users with an alternative to the standard projections that the GLA publishes on the London Datastore. Access to outputs The BPO projections are shared with users via private pages on the London Datastore. These pages include all outputs produced under the service since 2019. To access outputs, users must have a current Datastore account linked to their local government email address and contact the Demography Team to request permissions be granted for the individual pages relating to their local authority. Notes on completing the development data template What periods do the year labels in the template refer to? The year labels in the template nominally refer to periods ending in the middle of that year (i.e. `2025` refers to the 12 month period ending June 30th 2025). However, development data is often readily available only for financial years and it is common to submit data on this basis, with financial year 2024/25 aligning with `2025` in the template. Development trajectory The cells in the template represent annual net changes in the number of dwellings. The current template covers the period 2012-2041 and are pre-populated with estimated annual net dwelling changes for the period 2012-2019, based on modelling of data from the London Development Database. For the 2022-based and subsequent projections, dwelling stock estimates are anchored to the results of the 2021 Census and it is not essential to include data for dwelling stock changes that occured prior to this point (i.e. up to and including '2021'). Past development data from 2022 up to the base year of the projections, affects the projected population in all future years as dwelling stock in the base year is used in the estimation of relationships between housing and population in the model. We are not yet able to pre-populate templates with estimated dwelling changes for years after 2019. In future rounds of projections we intend to incorporate data from the Planning Data Hub. Blank cells are treated as missing rather than no change, and data based on the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) will be substituted in its place. To indicate no net change in dwellings in a ward in a particular year, users must explicitly enter a zero in the relevant cell. Self-contained and Non-self-contained development Self-contained development should be used for standard residential development (e.g. new build/conversion). Non-self-contained development should be used for development such as student accommodation. This should be added to the template as the equivalent of self-contained units (i.e. a ratio of non-self-contained to self-contained should be applied). The London Plan ratios are: · 2.5:1 for student housing · 1:1 for housing for older people (C2) · 1.8:1 for all other non-self-contained housing Requesting projections based on multiple different housing scenarios While we are willing to try and accommodate requests for multiple sets of projections, capacity in the team is limited and there is no guarantee that we will be able to do so in a timely manner. Please do not Add rows or columns to the template Change ward names or codes Include formulas or new formatting Add notes