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GLA Demography - GLA population projection service
The GLA Demography Team offers a bespoke population projection service to London local authorities. Boroughs can request population projections based on their own choice of assumptions about future housing delivery. These assumptions are submitted to the team via a standard template. The resulting projections are referred to as the Borough Preferred Option (or BPO) and are commonly used to help support local planning and service delivery. The GLA does not make the BPO projections and submitted housing trajectories publicly available or share them with anyone other than the commissioning borough. Boroughs wishing to publish BPO projections themselves are free to do so. This service is offered as an optional, free of charge service to London authorities, and is intended to provide users with an alternative to the standard projections that the GLA publishes on the London Datastore. Access to outputs The BPO projections are shared with users via private pages on the London Datastore. These pages include all outputs produced under the service since 2019. To access outputs, users must have a current Datastore account linked to their local government email address and contact the Demography Team to request permissions be granted for the individual pages relating to their local authority. Notes on completing the development data template What periods do the year labels in the template refer to? The year labels in the template nominally refer to periods ending in the middle of that year (i.e. `2025` refers to the 12 month period ending June 30th 2025). However, development data is often readily available only for financial years and it is common to submit data on this basis, with financial year 2024/25 aligning with `2025` in the template. Development trajectory The cells in the template represent annual net changes in the number of dwellings. The current template covers the period 2012-2041 and are pre-populated with estimated annual net dwelling changes for the period 2012-2019, based on modelling of data from the London Development Database. For the 2022-based and subsequent projections, dwelling stock estimates are anchored to the results of the 2021 Census and it is not essential to include data for dwelling stock changes that occured prior to this point (i.e. up to and including '2021'). Past development data from 2022 up to the base year of the projections, affects the projected population in all future years as dwelling stock in the base year is used in the estimation of relationships between housing and population in the model. We are not yet able to pre-populate templates with estimated dwelling changes for years after 2019. In future rounds of projections we intend to incorporate data from the Planning Data Hub. Blank cells are treated as missing rather than no change, and data based on the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) will be substituted in its place. To indicate no net change in dwellings in a ward in a particular year, users must explicitly enter a zero in the relevant cell. Self-contained and Non-self-contained development Self-contained development should be used for standard residential development (e.g. new build/conversion). Non-self-contained development should be used for development such as student accommodation. This should be added to the template as the equivalent of self-contained units (i.e. a ratio of non-self-contained to self-contained should be applied). The London Plan ratios are: · 2.5:1 for student housing · 1:1 for housing for older people (C2) · 1.8:1 for all other non-self-contained housing Requesting projections based on multiple different housing scenarios While we are willing to try and accommodate requests for multiple sets of projections, capacity in the team is limited and there is no guarantee that we will be able to do so in a timely manner. Please do not Add rows or columns to the template Change ward names or codes Include formulas or new formatting Add notes
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GLA Demography - Ethnic group population projections
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The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.
GLA demography team - Population projections documentation
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The GLA Interim 2021-based population projections (January 2023) comprise both trend-based variant projections and housing-led scenario projections. This dataset contains the detailed methodology documentation for the model and is published alongside the population projections data to assist users in understanding the projections and identifying which set of projections is most appropriate for their needs. The projections themselves can be downloaded here: Population and Household Projections
GLA Demography - Employment-led population projections
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GLA Demography has published 2016-based employment-led projections for London which provide population projections which are consistent with the employment projection scenarios published by GLA Economics. However, this should be viewed as an experimental output which may not be updated in the future. In addition to the raw data for this set of population projections, we have also produced a methodology document which explains how these projections were produced. GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.
GLA Demography - Housing-led population projections
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The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant. Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions. All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here. Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data). Documentation page Back to projections homepage
GLA Intelligence Unit - GLA Population Projections - Custom Age Tables
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This Excel based tool enables users to query the raw single year of age data so that any age range can easily be calculated without having to carry out often complex, and time consuming formulas that could also be open to human error. Each year the GLA demography team produce sets of population projections. The full raw data by single year of age (SYA) and gender are available as Datastore packages at the links below. How to use the tool Simply select the lower and upper age range for both males and females (starting in cell C3) and the spreadsheet will return the total population for the range. Find out more about GLA population projections on the GLA Demographic Projections page Click here for an archive of population projections from previous years that have since been superseded. 2019-based projections (published November 2020) Central range (upper bound) Central range (lower bound) Low population variant High population variant 2016-based projections (published July 2017) Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2016 SHLAA Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model Ethnic group projections consistent with the borough housing-led model (50MB file)
GLA Demography - GLA Population Statistics User Group presentations
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This is a collection of presentations given at the Population Statistics User Group hosted by the GLA City Intelligence and attended by representatives of London local authorities. Additional presentations will be added to this page over time. An archive of presentations delivered at conferences is available here.