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GLA Demography - Comparison of available population estimates
At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.
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GLA demography team - Population projections documentation
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The GLA Interim 2021-based population projections (January 2023) comprise both trend-based variant projections and housing-led scenario projections. This dataset contains the detailed methodology documentation for the model and is published alongside the population projections data to assist users in understanding the projections and identifying which set of projections is most appropriate for their needs. The projections themselves can be downloaded here: Population and Household Projections
demography - Projection Methodology Independent Review
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In late 2016 the GLA's Demography team commissioned the Centre for Change at the University of Southampton to udertake a comprehensive review of methodology and implementation of the GLA Trend Population Projection Model. This report contains their findings and recommendations.
GLA Demography - Household projection data for modelling
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The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website. Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme. For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk
GLA Demography - Employment-led population projections
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GLA Demography has published 2016-based employment-led projections for London which provide population projections which are consistent with the employment projection scenarios published by GLA Economics. However, this should be viewed as an experimental output which may not be updated in the future. In addition to the raw data for this set of population projections, we have also produced a methodology document which explains how these projections were produced. GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.
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