At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex. The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates. Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here * 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs. Documentation page Back to projections homepage

GLA Demography has published 2016-based employment-led projections for London which provide population projections which are consistent with the employment projection scenarios published by GLA Economics. However, this should be viewed as an experimental output which may not be updated in the future. In addition to the raw data for this set of population projections, we have also produced a methodology document which explains how these projections were produced. GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.

The GLA Interim 2021-based population projections (January 2023) comprise both trend-based variant projections and housing-led scenario projections. This dataset contains the detailed methodology documentation for the model and is published alongside the population projections data to assist users in understanding the projections and identifying which set of projections is most appropriate for their needs. The projections themselves can be downloaded here: Population and Household Projections