GLA Economics estimates of London's exports by sector over time based on the UK level service exports from the Pink Book 2014, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) goods exports and GLA Economics modelling. Additional data sources to inform GLA Economics modelling include 'GVA per Workforce Job in London and the UK' and the 'London Business Survey 2014'.

GLA Economics calculations of GVA per workforce job, by Section and Division of the UK Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC07), for London and UK, attributable to the activities of the workforce. Regional data on GVA per Workforce Job by sector is also provided.

The 2014 London Business Survey (LBS) is an innovative survey designed by the Office for National Statistics, on behalf of the London Enterprise Panel and the GLA. The survey collected information from a representative sample of private sector businesses in London in May-July 2014. This dataset contains information on the sales and purchases, and exporting and importing behaviour of London businesses corresponding with Section 5 of the London Business Survey 2014: Main Findings report. Information is provided on: The value of goods and service traded London businesses with sales to London, the rest of the UK, elsewhere in Europe and the rest of the world London businesses with purchases from London, the rest of the UK, elsewhere in Europe and the rest of the world The average proportion of sales to, and purchases from, specified locations As with any survey, the 2014 LBS is based on a sample and as such is subject to variability in the results. Care should therefore be taken in interpreting the survey findings. For all estimates, lower and upper limits of 95% confidence intervals are provided in the data files to assist with interpretation. The LBS results represent the population of business units in London. A business unit is defined as a site/workplace, which may also be a head office if the head office is in London. It will be the whole business in the case of businesses which only have one site, or part of the business in the case of multi-site firms. The results are presented by enterprise size band and industry sector.

•GLA Economics has produced long-run projections of London’s employment since 2002. These projections are trend based and set out the long run path of employment considered most likely based on the historic data available at the time of construction. These are used within the GLA for planning to provide capacity to accommodate the longer-terms needs of the London economy. Given their importance to GLA policy planning, this note looks at how the GLA Economics’ employment projections have performed since 2002 and how this compares to projections from some other respected organisations. •Although GLA Economics’ employment projections are consistently below outturn, much of this is the result of upward revisions to historic employment data (which underpin the projections model). Further, the projections perform relatively well when looking at the projected annual growth rate and average annual error in relation to outturn, with the accuracy of the projections generally improving the longer the time period over which the estimates are analysed. •The revisions to historic employment data also drive much of the variability in the GLA Economics’ employment projections numbers over time. However, and by design, the revised projections are relatively consistent over time and average revisions between iterations in GLA Economics employment projections are relatively small.

These slides begin to explore the potential impacts of the transition to a net-zero carbon and circular economy on different industry groups and workers in London. It should be noted that this analysis has not been based on London’s emissions as reported through the London Energy and Greenhouse Gas Inventory (LEGGI). Instead we use UK level data on emissions and energy consumption by industry group and apportion to a London level using regional employment estimates. This is an imperfect approach, intended to provide a first approximation of trends by industry group based on available data. The findings provide an initial insight but should be treated with caution. Main findings from the analysis Among the main findings, the analysis shows that by industry group: London apportioned GHG emissions are highest in Transport & Storage, followed by Electricity & Gas and Manufacturing High-emitting industry groups tend to account for a relatively small share of employment among London residents Some (but not all) high-emitting industry groups have seen a recent increase in GHG emissions at the UK level and employment at the London level Jobs in high-emitting industry groups tend to be spatially concentrated in different parts of London What are the main assumptions behind these findings? In the absence of sub-national estimates being available by industry group, we have apportioned UK GHG emissions and energy consumption to London using (resident based) ONS Annual Population Survey data. This allows us to look at trends using Standard Industrial Classification (SIC 2007) groups. This approach assumes that GHG emissions per worker and energy consumption per worker are the same within industries across the country. In reality, the occupational structure and carbon intensity of an industry is likely to vary across regions. It also reflects resident, not workplace, employment patterns. Our London apportion estimates also exclude GHG emissions from consumer expenditure and only covers direct emissions by industry. Further analysis of indirect emissions across supply chains could be of value when considering the longer-term challenges faced by the economy as part of this transition.