These workbooks contain the supporting data that sits behind GLA Economics Current Issues Notes 58 and 59. The Government recently set out plans for a ‘skills-based’ immigration system post-Brexit. To inform debate, GLA Economics has produced two Current Issues Notes aimed at understanding which areas of London’s labour market are likely to be most affected by the proposals. Current Issues Note 58: Which occupations may be most affected by the new £30,000 minimum salary and RQF3+ skills threshold proposals? Who works in these roles? How does the list of affected occupations change as the salary threshold is reduced towards £21,000? Current Issues Note 59: In which occupations is the greatest disruption most likely from the proposed £30,000 minimum salary and RQF3+ skills threshold proposals? Notes: These workbook bring together supporting data from the Office for National Statistic (ONS) that sits behind this work; for reference purposes, they also set out some of the modelled estimates used in our analysis. Please be aware: these modelled estimates have been produced with restrictions on data availability and are based on a number of simplifying assumptions. Our approach to data imputation is set out in detail in Current Issues Notes 58 and 59 and described only briefly in these workbooks. For further information users are advised to consult the notes provided in each workbook and the original ONS data publications.

•GLA Economics has produced long-run projections of London’s employment since 2002. These projections are trend based and set out the long run path of employment considered most likely based on the historic data available at the time of construction. These are used within the GLA for planning to provide capacity to accommodate the longer-terms needs of the London economy. Given their importance to GLA policy planning, this note looks at how the GLA Economics’ employment projections have performed since 2002 and how this compares to projections from some other respected organisations. •Although GLA Economics’ employment projections are consistently below outturn, much of this is the result of upward revisions to historic employment data (which underpin the projections model). Further, the projections perform relatively well when looking at the projected annual growth rate and average annual error in relation to outturn, with the accuracy of the projections generally improving the longer the time period over which the estimates are analysed. •The revisions to historic employment data also drive much of the variability in the GLA Economics’ employment projections numbers over time. However, and by design, the revised projections are relatively consistent over time and average revisions between iterations in GLA Economics employment projections are relatively small.

•GLA Economics has produced long-run projections of London’s employment since 2002. These projections are trend based and set out the long run path of employment considered most likely based on the historic data available at the time of construction. These are used within the GLA for planning to provide capacity to accommodate the longer-terms needs of the London economy. Given their importance to GLA policy planning, this note looks at how the GLA Economics’ employment projections have performed since 2002 and how this compares to projections from some other respected organisations. •Although GLA Economics’ employment projections are consistently below outturn, much of this is the result of upward revisions to historic employment data (which underpin the projections model). Further, the projections perform relatively well when looking at the projected annual growth rate and average annual error in relation to outturn, with the accuracy of the projections generally improving the longer the time period over which the estimates are analysed. •The revisions to historic employment data also drive much of the variability in the GLA Economics’ employment projections numbers over time. However, and by design, the revised projections are relatively consistent over time and average revisions between iterations in GLA Economics employment projections are relatively small.

GLA Economics calculations of GVA per workforce job, by Section and Division of the UK Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC07), for London and UK, attributable to the activities of the workforce. Regional data on GVA per Workforce Job by sector is also provided.

GLA Economics has produced a report ‘Monitoring the employment impact of mayoral programmes and initiatives’. The analysis allows us to estimate the number of jobs associated with GLA Group-led activity from the start of the Mayoral term (2016). The data available to download here shows gross jobs by job type, programme and policy area. Please note the report was amended on 18 May 2023 to reflect more up-to-date figures on the number of affordable home starts from the Affordable Housing Programme. This update reflects a change from 96,360 homes in December 2022 to 116,782 homes, as of March 2023. In addition, some terminology in the report was changed to specify clearly that the estimate provided is based on housing starts.

More Detailed Jobs This dataset provides estimates of employee jobs in London down to 4-digit Standard Industry Classification level, from 1998 to 2022. The latest release was in July 2024 - see the related blog post. Estimates are based on Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) and Workforce Jobs (WFJ) data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The underlying assumptions are outlined in the methodology paper published alongside these data tables. Note that the 2014 and 2015 updates were republished (in March 2018) following additional disclosure checking.

GLA Economics estimates of London's exports by sector over time based on the UK level service exports from the Pink Book 2014, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) goods exports and GLA Economics modelling. Additional data sources to inform GLA Economics modelling include 'GVA per Workforce Job in London and the UK' and the 'London Business Survey 2014'.

GLA Economics produces long-term employment projections for London by sector and by borough. The methodology in the accompanying report explains the approach adopted. Links to the 2022 employment projections (latest, interim update) Borough projections Sector projections London labour market projections report Links to previous employment projections Provided below are links to the previous versions of GLA Economics’ employment projections, with breakdowns of the numbers (historic and projected) available by sector and by local authority. 2017 Borough projections, 1971-2050 Sector projections, 1971-2050 London projections of scenarios London labour market projections report 2016 Borough Projections, 1971-2041 Sector Projections, 1971-2041 London labour market projections report 2015 Borough [trend-based only], 1981-2036 Sector, 1984-2036 Working paper 67 2013 Borough, 1984-2036 Sector, 1984-2036 London labour market projections report 2011 Borough [trend-based only, data excludes self-employed], 1981-2036 Sector, 1984-2036 Working paper 51 2009 Borough, 2011-2036 Sector [based on SIC 1992], 1971-2031 Working paper 38

This page presents analysis and data related to skills and employment in London Note on data sources and interpretation: The analysis is not intended to be comprehensive or exhaustive. It is a snapshot analysis of key data as it pertains to London. The analysis does not represent the full body of evidence on which Mayoral Policies are, or will be, based. Outputs should be triangulated with other sources of information and analysis to develop a rounded statistical picture of specific policy issues.

About this dataset This page presents experimental analysis related to green jobs and skills in London, using online job postings data provided by Lightcast. This near real-time data can be used to help track and assess the demand for green expertise in London. When using outputs from this analysis it is important to be aware of the following caveats: The methodology used to identify green job postings remains experimental and subject to revision. Online job postings may not fully reflect the overall composition of vacancies in the London labour market, as the number of vacancies is more evenly distributed across occupational groups in other data sources. The analysis is not intended to be comprehensive or exhaustive. It is a snapshot analysis of key data as it pertains to London. The analysis does not represent the full body of evidence on which Mayoral Policies are, or will be, based. Outputs should be triangulated with other sources of information and analysis to develop a rounded statistical picture of any specific policy issues.