This report comprises an overview of the work that has been undertaken by WMAwater on the Manly Lagoon Floodplain Risk Management Study and Plan. It builds on prior stage reports and, in accordance with the Brief, it additionally includes a discussion of: • hydraulic and hazard categorisation; • future development scenarios; • review of climate change; • flood damages assessment; and • emergency management.

This report details the results and findings of the Flood Study investigations. The key elements include: • a description of the study area; • a summary of available historical flood related data; • establishment and calibration of the hydrologic and hydraulic models; • the estimation of design flood behaviour for existing catchment conditions; • sensitivity analysis of the model results to variation of input parameters; • potential implications of climate change projections; and • identification of the level of flood risk for individual properties in the catchment.

Study Context The preparation of this plan follows on from the Flood Study (WMA, 2006) and Floodplain Risk Management Study (Cardno Lawson Treloar, 2007a) and forms the fifth stage of the Floodplain Risk Management Process which includes:,

This report has been prepared for Warringah Council to define the nature and extent of flood in the Dee Why South Catchment. Flood modelling was completed to define flood behaviour for a range of storm events from 1 year Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) to Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The modelling shows that significant flows are conveyed in the piped drainage network and overland through roads and properties. Generally the main overland flowpath starts from several branches at Alfred Street to Beverley Job Park. Flows in the open channel at Victor Road and Redman Road combine with overland flows from Mooramba Road, Fisher Road, and Pittwater Road at the intersection of Redman Road and Pittwater Road. Overland flows are then conveyed along several roads and properties to Dee Why Lagoon as well as in the open channels between Pacific Parade / Oaks Avenue and downstream of Dee Why Parade. In a 1% AEP event, the results show that ponding of runoff occurs at several locations with restricted outlet capacity. High pedestrian areas in Dee Why CBD also experience overland flow inundation, particularly along Redman Road, Pittwater Road, Oaks Avenue and Howard Avenue. In a 1% AEP event floodway and high provisional hazard flow conditions along the open channels, on roads, and some properties including in the Dee Why CBD. A series of climate change scenarios were also modelled to evaluate potential impacts from elevated sea levels and increased rainfall intensity. Results showed that the modelled increases to Lagoon level have an impact to flood inundation of low-lying land near the Lagoon. Most properties within the Dee Why South catchment do not show a significant change in inundation extent for the modelled scenarios. Modelled increases in rainfall intensity showed a rise in peak water levels across the catchment, particularly in trapped low points such as on Sturdee Parade and Alfred Street. Council applies land use planning and development controls to manage development within flood prone areas. The flood result and mapping provided in the document will assist Council with future land use planning, development controls and floodplain risk management. The next stage of the floodplain risk management process following the adoption of the Flood Study is the Floodplain Risk Management Study and Plan. This next stage will investigate various floodplain risk management measures and prioritise these measures for implementation.

This study updates the previous Wrights Creek Flood Study (Patterson Britton & Partners, 2007) and provides Council with a suitable platform for undertaking the next steps in the Floodplain Risk Management Process. The XP-RAFTS hydrologic model developed in the 2007 Flood Study has been adopted for this study. A TUFLOW hydraulic model of the catchment has been established using up to date survey of the ground levels and culvert and bridge structures. The TUFLOW hydraulic model has been used to reproduce the historical flood behaviour from events in 1995 and 2002 and to define flood behaviour for a range of design events. Actions undertaken as part of this flood study include: • collection of additional survey, • development of a TUFLOW hydraulic model, • definition of the design flood behaviour, • assessment of provisional hydraulic hazard, • assessment of hydraulic categorization, • assessment of the model sensitivity to parameter changes, • assessment of climate change impacts on model results, • assessment of sensitivity of model results to the new ARR 2016 design inputs, • community consultation.

The study was commissioned by Bayside Council, with the assistance of the NSW Government Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH). Additional information has been provided by Sydney Water Corporation (SWC). The Flood Study comprises the development of computational hydrologic and hydraulic models that define design flood behaviour for the 20% AEP (0.2 EY), 10% AEP, 5% AEP, 1% AEP and 0.5% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) design storms and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in the Bardwell Creek and Wolli Creek catchments.

Processed results include: depth, level, velocity, VxD, hazard, hydraulic categories, FPA, extents, emergency response categories, and climate change

The key objective of this Flood Study is to develop a suitable hydrologic/hydraulic model that can project flood and permanent inundation water levels in Lake Macquarie from rainfall, sea level rise and storm surge. These results will be used by Lake Macquarie City Council, in consultation with the community of Lake Macquarie City, to manage flood and permanent inundation risks to low lying land around the Lake Macquarie waterway. The key stages in the process are: Undertaken a comprehensive review of the 1998 Lake Macquarie Flood Study (Part 1 – Reference 1) and develop suitable hydrologic/hydraulic models to define flood behaviour over the full range of design events for existing catchment conditions, Use the hydrologic/hydraulic models to assess various climate change scenarios, including application of the NSW Government’s sea level rise benchmarks, Assess the potential increase in storm surge as a result of climate change and its impact on elevated ocean levels, Review the potential impact of climate change on the local wind/wave climate as this affects the extent of wave runup on the foreshore, Assess the hydraulic and hazard categories for existing and climate change conditions. This report details the results and findings of the above investigations. The key elements include: a summary of available historical flood related data, establishment of the hydrologic and hydraulic models, calibration of the hydrologic and hydraulic models, definition of the design flood behaviour for existing catchment conditions, sensitivity analysis of the design flood behaviour, assessment of the impacts of climate change on the still water and wave runup water levels re-definition of the flood extent and hydraulic and hazard categories mapping for existing and climate change conditions. A Flood Study is a technical document and not easily understood by the general public. A glossary of flood related terms is provided in Appendix A to assist. If more explanation of terms or a better understanding of the approach is required, type “NSW Government Floodplain Development Manual” into an internet search engine and you will be directed to the NSW Government web site which provides a copy of this manual and further explanation. Flood levels given in this report relate only to the water level with the lake itself. Design water levels in the creek systems entering the lake (Cockle Creek, Dora Creek etc.) will be higher than those shown for the lake.

The Raymond Terrace Flood Study has been prepared for Port Stephens Council (Council) to define the existing flood behaviour in the western Raymond Terrace catchments and establish the basis for subsequent floodplain management activities. The study will also assist Council in considering future upgrades to the drainage network and flood relief pump capacity to the Hunter River. This project has been conducted under the State Assisted Floodplain Management Program and received State financial support.

The Narrabeen Lagoon Flood Study has been prepared for Warringah and Pittwater Councils (The Councils) to define the existing flood behaviour in the Narrabeen Lagoon catchment and establish the basis for subsequent floodplain management activities. This study updates previous studies on the Lagoon including the Narrabeen Lagoon Flood Study (PWD, 1990) and studies of the individual tributary streams, providing a holistic assessment of flooding within the catchment. The current Flood Study considers land use changes subsequent to previous modelling investigations, the influence of the Narrabeen Lagoon entrance on flood behaviour and the influence of potential climate change. The primary objective of this Flood Study is to define the flood behaviour under historical, existing and future conditions (incorporating potential impacts of climate change) in the Narrabeen Lagoon catchment for a full range of design flood events. The study provides information on flood levels and depths, velocities, flows, hydraulic categories and provisional hazard categories. The Flood Study has also identified the impact on flood behaviour as a result of future climate change and potential changes in the catchment and lagoon entrance. Specifically, the study incorporates:,