This study updates the previous Wrights Creek Flood Study (Patterson Britton & Partners, 2007) and provides Council with a suitable platform for undertaking the next steps in the Floodplain Risk Management Process. The XP-RAFTS hydrologic model developed in the 2007 Flood Study has been adopted for this study. A TUFLOW hydraulic model of the catchment has been established using up to date survey of the ground levels and culvert and bridge structures. The TUFLOW hydraulic model has been used to reproduce the historical flood behaviour from events in 1995 and 2002 and to define flood behaviour for a range of design events. Actions undertaken as part of this flood study include: • collection of additional survey, • development of a TUFLOW hydraulic model, • definition of the design flood behaviour, • assessment of provisional hydraulic hazard, • assessment of hydraulic categorization, • assessment of the model sensitivity to parameter changes, • assessment of climate change impacts on model results, • assessment of sensitivity of model results to the new ARR 2016 design inputs, • community consultation.

Volume 1 Report This flood study has been undertaken to determine the flood behaviour in the catchment due to local storm runoff for the 0.5% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), 1% AEP, 2% AEP, 5% AEP, 10% AEP, 20% AEP, 50% AEP and 100% AEP flood events and the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). In accordance with its objectives, the study has determined the nature and extent of flooding through the estimation of design flood flows, levels and velocities. Flood impacts due to storm events in the Brisbane Water estuary are detailed in the Brisbane Water Foreshore Flood Study (2009). In undertaking the flood study, a hydrologic-hydraulic computer model of the major channels and floodplain within the catchment was established and verified against historical flood event observations. The hydraulic model was then used with design rainfall conditions to simulate design flood behaviour in the catchment. The study has defined Provisional Flood Hazard and Hydraulic Categories for the flood affected areas. The objective of this Study is to define the nature of the existing flood behaviour due to local runoff only in the Davistown catchment. To achieve the objectives, the following tasks were undertaken:,

This report presents the results of an investigation of flooding in the Sailors Bay Creek catchment and has been jointly sponsored by Willoughby City Council (WCC) and the NSW Government, via the Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH). Figure 1.1 shows the location of the catchment, which drains residential and commercial areas in the suburbs of Willoughby, Northbridge and Castlecrag before discharging to Sailors Bay in Middle Harbour. The study objective was to define flood behaviour in terms of flows, water levels and flooding patterns for floods ranging between 5 and 100 year ARI, as well as for the PMF. The investigation involved rainfall-runoff hydrologic modelling of the catchment and drainage system to assess flows in the Sailors Bay Creek drainage system, and application of these flows to a hydraulic model of the main arm of Sailors Bay Creek and its overland flow paths to assess peak water levels and flow patterns. The model results were interpreted to present a detailed picture of flooding under present day conditions. The scope of the study included investigation of both main stream flood behaviour along the main arm of Sailors Bay Creek as well as overland flooding throughout the study area which occurs either as a result of surcharges of the piped drainage system or upstream of the commencement of the formal drainage system. Flooding in the lower reaches of the study area as a result of storm-driven elevated harbour water levels was also investigated. The study forms the first step in the floodplain risk management process for the Sailors Bay Creek catchment (refer process diagram presented in the Foreword) , and is a precursor of the future FRMS sponsored by WCC which will consider the impacts of flooding on existing and future urban development, as well as potential flood mitigation and management measures. Note that the results of the present study supersede those presented in the Overland Flooding Investigation undertaken for the whole of the Willoughby City Local Government Area (LGA) (L&A, 2009). The work undertaken in that study is summarised in Chapter 2.

The Flood Study had three main components:,

This flood study will form the basis for a subsequent floodplain risk management study where detailed assessment of flood mitigation options will be determined in consideration of social, ecological and economic factors relating to flood risk.

The Raymond Terrace Flood Study has been prepared for Port Stephens Council (Council) to define the existing flood behaviour in the western Raymond Terrace catchments and establish the basis for subsequent floodplain management activities. The study will also assist Council in considering future upgrades to the drainage network and flood relief pump capacity to the Hunter River. This project has been conducted under the State Assisted Floodplain Management Program and received State financial support.

The objective of the study was to assess the impacts of climate change on the baseline 1% AEP flood condition within the Williamtown / Salt Ash Flood Study area. Central to this was the development of a new two-dimensional hydraulic model of the study area, in order that the impacts could be properly assessed. In completing the flood study review, the following activities were undertaken: • Review of relevant studies regarding flood conditions and climate change impacts within Port Stephens; • Site inspection to confirm the presence and configuration of key hydraulic structures; • Merging of the existing Williamtown / Salt Ash Flood Study and Williams River Flood Study modelled to produce a composite model capable of properly assessing the impact of climate change in the study area; • Updating of model topography with available LiDAR survey data; • Calibration of 1% AEP design event flood levels with the 4.84m AHD level from the Flood Frequency Analysis at Raymond Terrace; • Prediction of design flood conditions in the catchment using the developed model; and • Production of design flood mapping series. The climate change scenarios that were considered were combinations of 2050 and 2100 sea level rise conditions with baseline, +10% and +30% flood flows. A sea level rise of 0.4m by 2050, results in around a 0.2m increase to the 1% AEP flood level in Fullerton Cove. A sea level rise of 0.9m by 2100, results in around a 0.6m increase to the 1% AEP flood level in Fullerton Cove. For the 1% AEP event peak flood levels in Fullerton Cove increase by around 0.1m and 0.3m for the 10% and 30% flow increases respectively. The dominant flooding mechanism (in terms of peak design water levels) for the Williamtown / Salt Ash locality is mainstream Hunter River flooding. Under these conditions, Hunter River flooding results in Fullerton Cove filling and discharging into the Tilligerry Creek floodplain, under crossdrainage structures and through overtopping of Nelson Bay Road. The baseline flood level within the Tilligerry Creek floodplain is increased from 1.2m AHD to 2.6m AHD, under the worst case climate change scenario. The flood levels along Windeyers Creek are driven by flow conditions in the Hunter River. Hunter River flood water provides a backwater influence in Windeyers Creek, which fills the storage area to the east of the Pacific Highway. The total volume of water flowing from the Hunter River along Windeyers Creek determines the flood level reached in the storage area. A higher flood level in the Hunter River will result in a higher flood level in the storage area. At this location, the sea level rise scenarios have little impact on peak flood levels. There is only a small difference between flood levels for the baseline condition and the 2100 scenario. However, the increased flood flow scenarios do have a significant impact, with peak flood levels increasing by around 0.2m and 0.6m for the 10% and 30% flow increases respectively. The baseline flood level at this location is increased from 4.4m AHD to 5.2m AHD, under the worst case climate change scenario. The flood study review will form the basis for the subsequent floodplain risk management activities, being the next stage of the floodplain management process.

The Wollombi Flood Study Review and Model Upgrade completed in 2010 represents the initial stage in the floodplain management process and establishes the basis for the current floodplain risk management study. The objectives of the Wollombi Floodplain Risk Management Study are to:  Identify and assess measures for the mitigation of existing flood risk;  Identify and assess planning and development controls to reduce future flood risks; and  Present a recommended floodplain management plan that outlines the best possible measures to reduce flood damages in the Wollombi locality. This report documents the Floodplain Risk Management Study and presents a recommended Floodplain Risk Management Plan for the Wollombi Village.

Conclusions Provided below is a summary of the key findings of the Flood Study, in particular some of the important considerations for future floodplain risk management in the catchment:,

The main objective of this study (in two parts) has been to determine water levels in Brisbane Water for the full range of flood and ocean events that can occur due to the various natural physical processes, taking joint occurrence issues into account to some extent. The flooding behaviour can be influenced, either separately, or by a combination of, catchment rainfall runoff flooding, rainfall directly onto Brisbane Water, elevated ocean levels, local winds and, to a minor extent, the condition of the ocean entrance channel near Ettalong. The outcomes from this study include: -,