On 28 June 2022 ONS released the first results from the 2011 Census of England and Wales comprising for each local authority the estimated population at census day (21 March 2021) and the number of households. Population estimates are by five-year age band and sex. Estimates of responses rates for each local authority were also published. Read our blog post which describes how the census data relates to other population estimates and some of the pitfalls to avoid when interpreting the numbers.

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex. The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates. Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here * 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs. Documentation page Back to projections homepage

This Update from the GLA Intelligence Unit analyses the ONS 2014 mid-year population estimates and associated components of change focussing on London and comparing these to ONS and GLA population projections.

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

In late 2016 the GLA's Demography team commissioned the Centre for Change at the University of Southampton to udertake a comprehensive review of methodology and implementation of the GLA Trend Population Projection Model. This report contains their findings and recommendations.

This report from the GLA Intelligence Unit analyses the ONS 2011 Sub-national Population Projections (SNPP) for London boroughs. The report provides insight into the methodology employed by ONS in the production of the projections as well as comparing this projection to previous ONS SNPP projections. The report is available to download here. The data used in the report is available to download here. More data available on the ONS website