The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website. Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme. For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk

This Excel based tool enables users to query the raw single year of age data so that any age range can easily be calculated without having to carry out often complex, and time consuming formulas that could also be open to human error. Each year the GLA demography team produce sets of population projections. The full raw data by single year of age (SYA) and gender are available as Datastore packages at the links below. How to use the tool Simply select the lower and upper age range for both males and females (starting in cell C3) and the spreadsheet will return the total population for the range. Find out more about GLA population projections on the GLA Demographic Projections page Click here for an archive of population projections from previous years that have since been superseded. 2019-based projections (published November 2020) Central range (upper bound) Central range (lower bound) Low population variant High population variant 2016-based projections (published July 2017) Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2016 SHLAA Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model Ethnic group projections consistent with the borough housing-led model (50MB file)

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant. Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions. All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here. Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data). Documentation page Back to projections homepage

A technical note and subsequent Update on the use of General Practitioner (GP) registration data to estimate the number of live births occurring in London. The technical note presents analysis into the relationships between GP registration and birth estimates data, which indicates that GP registrations can be used to predict birth estimates with a good level of accuracy at local auhtority level. Using the approach outlined in the note, a strong indication of births can be obtained up to eleven months ahead of the release of official data. The note presents birth estimates for the year to mid-2015 based on analysis of GP registration data and explores the likely accuracy of such estimates. Intelligence Unit Update 04-2016 compares the birth predictions made in the technical note with subsequently released official estimates. The accuracy of the results is compared with that obtained from standard projection methodologies employed by the GLA and ONS. The Update presents estimates of births for the year to mid-2016 based upon recent GP registration data obtained by the GLA. **Update February 2023** Estimates of recent births using an updated version of this approach are now available here The code used to produce these estimates is available can be found on GitHub.

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.