GLA Demography has published 2016-based employment-led projections for London which provide population projections which are consistent with the employment projection scenarios published by GLA Economics. However, this should be viewed as an experimental output which may not be updated in the future. In addition to the raw data for this set of population projections, we have also produced a methodology document which explains how these projections were produced. GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.

This briefing summarises trends in applications for the (BN(O) route since it was introduced on 31 January 2021 until the end of March 2023.

In late 2016 the GLA's Demography team commissioned the Centre for Change at the University of Southampton to udertake a comprehensive review of methodology and implementation of the GLA Trend Population Projection Model. This report contains their findings and recommendations.

The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections. This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses. Inputs: Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type. Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website. Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme. For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas. The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

This report was released in September 2010. However, recent demographic data is available on the datastore - you may find other datasets on the Datastore useful such as: GLA Population Projections, National Insurance Number Registrations of Overseas Nationals, Births by Birthplace of Mother, Births and Fertility Rates, Office for National Statistics (ONS) Population Estimates FOCUSONLONDON2010:POPULATIONANDMIGRATION London is the United Kingdom’s only city region. Its population of 7.75 million is 12.5 per cent of the UK population living on just 0.6 per cent of the land area. London’s average population density is over 4,900 persons per square kilometre, this is ten times that of the second most densely populated region. Between 2001 and 2009 London’s population grew by over 430 thousand, more than any other region, accounting for over 16 per cent of the UK increase. This report discusses in detail the population of London including Population Age Structure, Fertility and Mortality, Internal Migration, International Migration, Population Turnover and Churn, and Demographic Projections. Population and Migration report is the first release of the Focus on London 2010-12 series. Reports on themes such as Income, Poverty, Labour Market, Skills, Health, and Housing are also available. REPORT: Read the full report in PDF format. PRESENTATION: To access an interactive presentation about population changes in London click the link to see it on Prezi.com DATA: To access a spreadsheet with all the data from the Population and Migration report click on the image below. Report data MAP: To enter an interactive map showing a number of indicators discussed in the Population and Migration report click on the image below. Interactive Maps FACTS: ● Top five boroughs for babies born per 10,000 population in 2008-09: Newham – 244.4 Barking and Dagenham – 209.3 Hackney – 205.7 Waltham Forest – 202.7 Greenwich – 196.2 -32. Havering – 116.8 -33. City of London – 47.0 ● In 2009, Barnet overtook Croydon as the most populous London borough. Prior to this Croydon had been the largest since 1966 ● Population per hectare of land used for Domestic building and gardens is highest in Tower Hamlets ● In 2008-09, natural change (births minus deaths) led to 78,000 more Londoners compared with only 8,000 due to migration. read more about this or click play on the chart below to reveal how regional components of populations change have altered over time.

Mid-year population estimates and components of change for years 2002-2020. Data for Local authority districts in England and Wales (2021 boundaries) and national data for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Data has been compiled from ONS, NRS and NISRA outputs. This is an rds file for use with R and RStudio. This is a large file (19Mb).

The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.

On 28 June 2022 ONS released the first results from the 2011 Census of England and Wales comprising for each local authority the estimated population at census day (21 March 2021) and the number of households. Population estimates are by five-year age band and sex. Estimates of responses rates for each local authority were also published. Read our blog post which describes how the census data relates to other population estimates and some of the pitfalls to avoid when interpreting the numbers.

The GLA Demography Team offers a bespoke population projection service to London local authorities. Boroughs can request population projections based on their own choice of assumptions about future housing delivery. These assumptions are submitted to the team via a standard template. The resulting projections are referred to as the Borough Preferred Option (or BPO) and are commonly used to help support local planning and service delivery. The GLA does not make the BPO projections and submitted housing trajectories publicly available or share them with anyone other than the commissioning borough. Boroughs wishing to publish BPO projections themselves are free to do so. This service is offered as an optional, free of charge service to London authorities, and is intended to provide users with an alternative to the standard projections that the GLA publishes on the London Datastore. Access to outputs The BPO projections are shared with users via private pages on the London Datastore. These pages include all outputs produced under the service since 2019. To access outputs, users must have a current Datastore account linked to their local government email address and contact the Demography Team to request permissions be granted for the individual pages relating to their local authority. Notes on completing the development data template What periods do the year labels in the template refer to? The year labels in the template nominally refer to periods ending in the middle of that year (i.e. `2025` refers to the 12 month period ending June 30th 2025). However, development data is often readily available only for financial years and it is common to submit data on this basis, with financial year 2024/25 aligning with `2025` in the template. Development trajectory The cells in the template represent annual net changes in the number of dwellings. The current template covers the period 2012-2041 and are pre-populated with estimated annual net dwelling changes for the period 2012-2019, based on modelling of data from the London Development Database. For the 2022-based and subsequent projections, dwelling stock estimates are anchored to the results of the 2021 Census and it is not essential to include data for dwelling stock changes that occured prior to this point (i.e. up to and including '2021'). Past development data from 2022 up to the base year of the projections, affects the projected population in all future years as dwelling stock in the base year is used in the estimation of relationships between housing and population in the model. We are not yet able to pre-populate templates with estimated dwelling changes for years after 2019. In future rounds of projections we intend to incorporate data from the Planning Data Hub. Blank cells are treated as missing rather than no change, and data based on the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) will be substituted in its place. To indicate no net change in dwellings in a ward in a particular year, users must explicitly enter a zero in the relevant cell. Self-contained and Non-self-contained development Self-contained development should be used for standard residential development (e.g. new build/conversion). Non-self-contained development should be used for development such as student accommodation. This should be added to the template as the equivalent of self-contained units (i.e. a ratio of non-self-contained to self-contained should be applied). The London Plan ratios are: · 2.5:1 for student housing · 1:1 for housing for older people (C2) · 1.8:1 for all other non-self-contained housing Requesting projections based on multiple different housing scenarios While we are willing to try and accommodate requests for multiple sets of projections, capacity in the team is limited and there is no guarantee that we will be able to do so in a timely manner. Please do not Add rows or columns to the template Change ward names or codes Include formulas or new formatting Add notes